Areal Flood Advisory 252, NWS JSJ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Juan PR
331 PM AST Sat Aug 26 2023

.SYNOPSIS...
Outer bands from very far north Hurricane Franklin continues to
bring unsettled weather over the local islands. This activity
should continue through tomorrow, but some improvements can be
anticipated on Monday. A more seasonal, summer-hot pattern is
anticipated to return for next week.

&&

.SHORT TERM... Today through Monday...
Almost all of Puerto Rico and the northern U.S. Virgin Islands
received some rain today. The heaviest activity was observed along
the interior and southern of Puerto Rico. These storms required
special weather statements, and flood advisories and warnings. A
few rivers went above flood stage, mainly in Ponce, Aibonito and
Coamo. Strong gusty winds and damage to the powerlines was
reported as well.

Satellite imagery shows plenty of moisture covering the area, and
under a moderate south-southwest steering flow, this activity will
continue. The areas most affected, once again, are going to be
southern and western Puerto Rico. Not a lot of activity is
expected for the U.S. Virgin Islands, but some showers may reach
this area at times. The winds will remain from the south-southwest
on Sunday, with above normal moisture. The GFS-forecast sounding
does not show saturation at the upper levels, hence sunshine will
filter in as well. With strong heating and moisture flow from the
south, additional rain will be anticipated. Showers will reach the
southern municipalities of Puerto Rico tomorrow, with additional
activity developing north of the Cordillera Central and reaching
the San Juan metro area. Gusty winds can be expected with the
thunderstorms as well.

By Monday, conditions may improve, as the air mass becomes a
little drier all the way into the upper levels of the atmosphere.
Precipitable water values are expected to be near normal, however,
so local effect may trigger more showers and thunderstorms, but
mainly focused along the interior and the northwestern quadrant of
Puerto Rico. Once the cloudiness from Franklin diminish,
temperatures will once again soar into the low and mid-90s, with
high heat indices anticipated for urban and coastal areas of the
islands.

&&

.LONG TERM...Tuesday through Saturday.../from prev discussion/

A variable weather pattern will prevail for the long-term period.
As tropical storm Franklin moves northward far away from the
Caribbean, a building surface high pressure over the western
Atlantic will re-establish the easterly trade winds across the
area. This pattern will introduce a more summer-typical weather
pattern across the islands, with the usual morning pesky showers
followed by the western interior showers for Tuesday. By
Wednesday, tropical moisture, now located just a few miles east of
the Lesser Antilles, will be dragged by the surface winds and
increase the frequency of shower activity across the islands.
According to the latest run from the Gálvez-Davison Index (GDI),
there is potential for isolated to scattered thunderstorms across
the interior in the afternoon.

The bulk of the humidity will be out of the region by Thursday,
leaving PWAT values in the climatological normals over the islands.
However, the proximity of a mid-level (700-500 MB) trough will
enhance the vertical development on Thursday into early Friday
across the local waters and west Puerto Rico. By Friday, enough
moisture will cover the CWA again as a tropical wave reaches the
islands. So far today, PWAT values will go to 2.1 inches, and 500
MB temperatures will round in the -6 to -7 degrees. For the U.S.
Virgin Islands, a typical summer pattern is forecast for the whole
period, with the usual pesky brief passing showers in the
mornings and variable conditions in the afternoons.

&&

.AVIATION...
The outer bands from the very far away Franklin will produce
SHRA/TSRA across the local waters. MVFR conds with brief IFR or even
LIFR is possible through this evening. TSRA may impact PR terminals,
while USVI may sea a few SHRA but mainly with VFR conds. Winds will
persist from the SSW at around 10 kt, but locally higher in/near
SHRA/TSRA. Winds will prevail mainly from the south throughout the
next 24 hrs.

&&

.MARINE...
Seas are generally below 5 feet across the local waters. However,
outer bands from Hurricane Franklin continue to generate strong
thunderstorms over the area, and these storms may generate locally
hazardous seas. Winds will be light to moderate from the south
through Monday. The risk of rip currents is moderate for the
northern coast of Puerto Rico.

&&

.SJU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PR...None.
VI...None.
AM...None.
&&

SHORT TERM...RAM/CAM
LONG TERM....ERG
PUBLIC DESK...RC

Perspectivas sobre las Condiciones Peligrosas del Tiempo
Nacional de Meteorologia en San Juan PR
506 AM AST sabado 26 de agosto de 2023

AMZ711>745-PRZ001>013-270915-
San Juan y Vecindad-Noreste-Sureste-Este Interior-Norte Central-
Interior Central-Ponce y Vecindad-Noroeste-Oeste Interior-Mayaguez
y Vecindad-Suroeste-Culebra-Vieques-Aguas cercanas y lejanas a la
costa del Atlantico y del Caribe-
506 AM AST sabado 26 de agosto de 2023

Esta perspectiva sobre las condiciones peligrosas del tiempo es para
Puerto Rico.

.DIA UNO...Esta tarde y esta noche

.Rayos...Tronadas aisladas son posibles a traves de Puerto Rico.
Este atento a las tormentas electricas en su area y este preparado
para refugiarse.

.Lluvia Excesiva...Inundaciones en areas urbanas, carreteras y riachuelos.
Inundaciones repentinas aisladas son posibles.

.Calor Excesivo...Indices de calor de 102 a 107 grados a traves de
los municipios costeros urbanos y costeros. Agotamiento por calor es
probable con exposicion prolongada.

.Corrientes Marinas...Corrientes marinas amenazantes a la vida son
posibles en la zona de ola rompiente particularmente a traves de
las playas del norte de Puerto Rico.

.DIAS DOS A SIETE...domingo a viernes

Las bandas de la cola del Ciclon Tropical Franklin podran alcanzar
el area hasta el sabado. Indices de calor entre 102 a 110 grados son
posibles durante horas del medio dia a traves de la mayoria de los
lugares de elevaciones bajas durante el periodo largo. Tronadas son
posibles cada dia. Se espera un riesgo moderado de corrientes
marinas para las playas del noroeste, y norte-central.

.Comunicado sobre informacion reportada por observadores...

No se recomienda la activacion de los observadores.

AMZ716-726-VIZ001-002-270915-
San Tomas, San John y las Islas Adyacentes-Santa Cruz-
Aguas cercanas a la Costa del Atlantico y aguas costeras
adyacentes del Caribe-
506 AM AST sabado 26 de agosto de 2023

Esta perspectiva sobre las condiciones peligrosas del tiempo es para
las Islas Virgenes Estadounidenses.

.DIA UNO...Esta tarde y esta noche

.Rayos...Tronadas aisladas son posibles al norte de las Islas
Virgenes Americanas. Este atento a las tormentas electricas en su
area y este preparado para refugiarse.

.Lluvia Excesiva...Inundaciones en areas urbanas, carreteras y
riachuelos. Inundaciones repentinas aisladas son posibles.

.Calor Excesivo...Indices de calor de 102 a 107 grados a traves de
las islas. Agotamiento por calor es probable con exposicion
prolongada.

.DIAS DOS A SIETE...domingo a viernes

Las bandas de la cola del Ciclon Tropical Franklin podran alcanzar
el area hasta el sabado. Indices de calor entre 102 a 110 grados son
posibles durante horas del medio dia a traves de la mayoria de los
lugares de elevaciones bajas durante el periodo largo. Habra un
riesgo bajo de corrientes marinas para todas las playas de las Islas
Virgenes Americanas.

.Comunicado sobre informacion reportada por observadores...

No se requiere la activacion de los observadores.

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service San Juan PR
420 PM AST Sat Aug 26 2023

PRZ005-008>010-262145-
Northwest PR-North Central PR-Mayaguez and Vicinity PR-
Western Interior PR-
420 PM AST Sat Aug 26 2023

...A strong thunderstorm will impact portions of western Puerto Rico
through 545 PM AST...

At 419 PM AST, a strong thunderstorm was over Quebradillas, moving
northeast at 30 mph.

HAZARD...Up to 40 mph wind, frequent cloud to ground lightning and
         heavy rain.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Expect minor damage to tree limbs and blowing around of
         light, unsecured objects. Heavy rain may cause temporary
         street flooding especially in poor drainage areas.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

People outdoors should seek shelter immediately. If you can hear
thunder, you are close enough to be struck by lightning. Motorists
should slow down and be prepared for possible loss of control due to
hydroplaning.

&&

LAT...LON 1849 6697 1849 6682 1847 6673 1834 6692
      1817 6690 1817 6716 1818 6717 1821 6715
      1828 6719 1830 6723 1836 6727 1842 6716
      1849 6717 1851 6714 1852 6704
TIME...MOT...LOC 2019Z 240DEG 28KT 1848 6693

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.00 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH

ERG

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service San Juan PR
427 PM AST Sat Aug 26 2023

PRZ003-004-006-007-262200-
Central Interior PR-Ponce and Vicinity PR-Eastern Interior PR-
Southeast PR-
427 PM AST Sat Aug 26 2023

...A strong thunderstorm will impact portions of the western
interior and southwestern Puerto Rico, around Orocovis and
Salinas, through 600 PM AST...

At 426 PM AST, a strong thunderstorm was over Orocovis, and another
one near Salinas moving northeast at 30 mph.

HAZARD...Up to 40 mph wind, frequent cloud to ground lightning and
         heavy rain.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Expect minor damage to tree limbs and blowing around of
         light, unsecured objects. Heavy rain may cause temporary
         street flooding especially in poor drainage areas.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

People outdoors should seek shelter immediately. If you can hear
thunder, you are close enough to be struck by lightning. Motorists
should slow down and be prepared for possible loss of control due to
hydroplaning.

&&

LAT...LON 1826 6620 1818 6615 1822 6596 1801 6586
      1796 6609 1793 6616 1794 6621 1795 6617
      1796 6620 1794 6623 1794 6629 1798 6632
      1795 6637 1796 6643 1799 6646 1797 6656
      1824 6649 1827 6638
TIME...MOT...LOC 2026Z 240DEG 28KT 1814 6615

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.00 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH

ERG

Special Weather Statement...CORRECTED
National Weather Service San Juan PR
430 PM AST Sat Aug 26 2023

PRZ003-004-006-007-262200-
Central Interior PR-Ponce and Vicinity PR-Eastern Interior PR-
Southeast PR-
430 PM AST Sat Aug 26 2023

...A strong thunderstorm will impact portions of the western
interior and southeastern Puerto Rico, around Orocovis and
Salinas, through 600 PM AST...

At 426 PM AST, a strong thunderstorm was over Orocovis, and another
one near Salinas moving northeast at 30 mph.

HAZARD...Up to 40 mph wind, frequent cloud to ground lightning and
         heavy rain.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Expect minor damage to tree limbs and blowing around of
         light, unsecured objects. Heavy rain may cause temporary
         street flooding especially in poor drainage areas.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

People outdoors should seek shelter immediately. If you can hear
thunder, you are close enough to be struck by lightning. Motorists
should slow down and be prepared for possible loss of control due to
hydroplaning.

&&

LAT...LON 1826 6620 1818 6615 1822 6596 1801 6586
      1796 6609 1793 6616 1794 6621 1795 6617
      1796 6620 1794 6623 1794 6629 1798 6632
      1795 6637 1796 6643 1799 6646 1797 6656
      1824 6649 1827 6638
TIME...MOT...LOC 2026Z 240DEG 28KT 1814 6615

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.00 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH

ERG

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