Severe Thunderstorm Warning 40, NWS Jackson, KY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Jackson KY
329 PM EDT Tue May 16 2023

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Wednesday night)
Issued at 328 PM EDT TUE MAY 16 2023

As of 15Z surface analysis, a warm front is draped across the CWA.
Along with that front, showers and thunderstorms have developed
along the surface warm front tornadic supercells are starting to
form but tornadoes remain to be limited. Instability around 1,500
J/kg of CAPE, effective bulk shear around 50 knots, theta-e
difference around 25C with DCAPE around 900 J/kg and high PWats
would largely support damaging wind as the line closely associated
with the cold front. Models have frontal timing through the area
starting now and continuing through the late evening to overnight
hours. Areas of fog is likely overnight due saturation, light winds
and clearing skies.

Once the front exits, overnight tonight, upper-level ridging moves
in from the northwest with surface high pressure working in from
northwest. However, with the ridge in place, cooler air is in the
region; therefore, temperatures will be cooler for Wednesday but
staying dry. Areas of fog may be possible again Wednesday night into
Thursday morning with lingering moisture and mostly clear skies.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday through Tuesday)
Issued at 329 PM EDT TUE MAY 16 2023

A weak upper low moves east from the mid-Mississippi Valley east
across the Tennessee Valley Thursday. Ahead of the low,
southwesterly flow aloft will help usher southerly return flow north
along with increasing instability and moisture, which will help
initiate afternoon and early evening shower and thunderstorm
activity. Though there appears to be a good veering profile, shear
values look to be too low for any severe threat.

Cluster analysis is in good agreement on a deep upper-level
low/trough moving east from the upper Mississippi River valley east
across the Great Lakes region Friday into Saturday. This will push a
cold front across eastern Kentucky late Friday night or the first
half of Saturday. Instability appears to be limited ahead of the
front which will tend to support more rain and shower chances than
thunderstorm chances, though a thunderstorm or two cannot be ruled
out.

After the front moves through the area Saturday morning, dry and
stable conditions build into the region from the north resulting in
pleasant weather for the remainder of Saturday into Sunday. By
Monday, some models show a trough/low moving into the plains with
southwest flow aloft ushering in increasing moisture and instability
for Monday into Tuesday. Will leave the NBM PoPs in the 10 to 20
range during this time in the afternoon periods to reflect the low-
end chance of some diurnal convection, but most models keep dry
conditions during this time. High temperatures rise from the 70s
Saturday after frontal passage to the lower to mid-80s early next
week.

Lows through the long term will tend to be on the cooler side, with
lows in the 40s and 50s Saturday night and Sunday night rising
slightly into early next week.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Wednesday afternoon)
ISSUED AT 122 PM EDT TUE MAY 16 2023

VFR/MVFR conditions are currently in place across the area. Those
will continue across the CWA for the next couple of hours before
showers and thunderstorms move in from the west. MVFR to IFR CIGS
and VSBY are expected with the showers and storms and areas of BR
that's forecast to develop with the shower activity. Showers and
storms will continue before dissipating toward 00Z. Winds are
forecast to diminish before areas of fog develop overnight and
continue through 14Z before becoming all VFR for the remainder of
the TAF period.

&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...VORST
LONG TERM...CMC
AVIATION...VORST

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Jackson KY
337 PM EDT Tue May 16 2023

KYZ050-058>060-068-069-079-080-083>088-106>120-171945-
Montgomery-Estill-Powell-Menifee-Rockcastle-Jackson-Pulaski-Laurel-
Wayne-McCreary-Whitley-Knox-Bell-Harlan-Morgan-Johnson-Wolfe-
Magoffin-Floyd-Lee-Breathitt-Knott-Owsley-Perry-Clay-Leslie-Letcher-
Martin-Pike-
Including the cities of Camargo, Jeffersonville, Mount Sterling,
Irvine, Ravenna, Clay City, Stanton, Frenchburg, Brodhead,
Mount Vernon, McKee, Annville, Burnside, Somerset, London,
Monticello, Stearns, Whitley City, Corbin, Williamsburg,
Barbourville, Middlesboro, Pineville, Cumberland, Harlan,
West Liberty, Paintsville, Campton, Salyersville, Prestonsburg,
Wheelwright, Beattyville, Jackson, Hindman, Pippa Passes,
Booneville, Hazard, Manchester, Hyden, Jenkins, Whitesburg, Inez,
Coal Run, Elkhorn City, Pikeville, and South Williamson
337 PM EDT Tue May 16 2023

...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 225 IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS
EVENING...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for a portion of eastern Kentucky.

.DAY ONE...Tonight.

Thunderstorms are expected early this evening across eastern
Kentucky. These storms could produce torrential downpours, leading
to isolated or scattered instances of high water or flash flooding.
In addition, for locations generally south of Interstate 64, isolated
to numerous storms could become severe during the afternoon and
evening, producing damaging wind gusts and hail up to half dollar
size. A couple of tornadoes are also possible.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Wednesday through Monday.

Thunderstorms are possible, generally during the afternoon and
evening hours Thursday and possibly again Friday afternoon and
evening.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotters are encouraged to report instances of heavy rain, high
water, flash flooding, wind damage, and hail that may occur this
afternoon into early evening.

KYZ044-051-052-104-171945-
Fleming-Bath-Rowan-Elliott-
Including the cities of Flemingsburg, Owingsville, Morehead,
and Sandy Hook
337 PM EDT Tue May 16 2023

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for a portion of eastern Kentucky.

.DAY ONE...Tonight.

Thunderstorms are expected early this evening across eastern
Kentucky. These storms could produce torrential downpours, leading
to isolated or scattered instances of high water or flash flooding.
In addition, for locations generally south of Interstate 64, isolated
to numerous storms could become severe during the afternoon and
evening, producing damaging wind gusts and hail up to half dollar
size. A couple of tornadoes are also possible.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Wednesday through Monday.

Thunderstorms are possible, generally during the afternoon and
evening hours from Thursday to Saturday and again on Monday.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation may be needed.

VORST/CMC

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service JACKSON KY
336 PM EDT Tue May 16 2023

KYZ120-162030-
Pike KY-
336 PM EDT Tue May 16 2023

...A strong thunderstorm will impact portions of central Pike County
through 430 PM EDT...

At 336 PM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm over
Osborn, or near Pikeville, moving east at 35 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 50 mph and nickel size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor damage to outdoor objects is
         possible.

This strong thunderstorm will be near...
  Pikeville around 340 PM EDT.
  Chloe, Shelbiana and Zebulon around 345 PM EDT.
  Garden Village and Raccoon around 350 PM EDT.
  Fishtrap Lake around 355 PM EDT.

Other locations in the path of this storm include Phyllis, Kimper,
Biggs, Coleman, Jamboree, Board Tree and Phelps.

THIS INCLUDES THE FOLLOWING HIGHWAYS...
 U.S. Highway 119 in Pike County between mile markers 1 and 7.
 U.S. Highway 23 in Pike County between mile markers 17 and 29.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

This storm may intensify, so be certain to monitor local radio
stations and available television stations for additional information
and possible warnings from the National Weather Service.

A Severe Thunderstorm Watch remains in effect until 800 PM EDT for
southeastern Kentucky.

&&

LAT...LON 3742 8213 3741 8260 3744 8260 3744 8259
      3747 8259 3753 8262 3758 8213 3757 8214
      3755 8213 3756 8208 3753 8205 3755 8204
      3754 8202 3754 8197
TIME...MOT...LOC 1936Z 270DEG 29KT 3745 8258

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.88 IN
MAX WIND GUST...50 MPH

GREIF

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service JACKSON KY
339 PM EDT Tue May 16 2023

KYZ080-085-086-116-162015-
Whitley KY-Clay KY-Knox KY-Laurel KY-
339 PM EDT Tue May 16 2023

...A strong thunderstorm will impact portions of southern Laurel,
Knox, northwestern Whitley and southwestern Clay Counties through 415
PM EDT...

At 339 PM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm over
Huxley, or 16 miles northwest of Williamsburg, moving east at 30 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 50 mph and nickel size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor damage to outdoor objects is
         possible.

This strong thunderstorm will be near...
  Bark Camp around 345 PM EDT.
  Grove, Holly Bay Rec. Area and Youngs Creek around 350 PM EDT.
  Rye, Vox, Deering, Hightop and Walden around 355 PM EDT.

Other locations in the path of this storm include Barton, Keavy,
Faber, North Corbin, Moore Hill, Dorthae, Woodbine, Lily, Wilton,
Gray, Lynn Camp, Bertha Station, Rossland, McHargue, Arkle, Garrich,
Bentley Station, Tuttle and Knoxfork.

THIS INCLUDES THE FOLLOWING HIGHWAYS...
 Interstate 75 in east central Kentucky between mile markers 18 and
33.
 U.S. Highway 25 East in Knox County between mile markers 1 and 26.
 U.S. Highway 25 East in Laurel County between mile markers 0 and 2.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

This storm may intensify, so be certain to monitor local radio
stations and available television stations for additional information
and possible warnings from the National Weather Service.

A Severe Thunderstorm Watch remains in effect until 800 PM EDT for
south central and southeastern Kentucky.

&&

LAT...LON 3683 8432 3684 8434 3686 8432 3687 8433
      3690 8432 3694 8430 3694 8436 3695 8437
      3697 8434 3699 8435 3700 8431 3702 8433
      3707 8377 3680 8376
TIME...MOT...LOC 1939Z 265DEG 24KT 3694 8432

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.88 IN
MAX WIND GUST...50 MPH

GREIF

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
354 PM EDT TUE MAY 16 2023

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0305 PM     HAIL             1 NE ENGLE              37.82N 84.10W
05/16/2023  E0.75 INCH       ESTILL             KY   EMERGENCY MNGR

&&

DJ

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service JACKSON KY
418 PM EDT Tue May 16 2023

KYZ120-162045-
Pike KY-
418 PM EDT Tue May 16 2023

...A strong thunderstorm will impact portions of east central Pike
County through 445 PM EDT...

At 418 PM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm over
Jamboree, or 14 miles southeast of Williamson, moving east at 40 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 50 mph and pea size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor damage to outdoor objects is
         possible.

This strong thunderstorm will be near...
  Woodman around 425 PM EDT.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

A Severe Thunderstorm Watch remains in effect until 800 PM EDT for
southeastern Kentucky.

&&

LAT...LON 3739 8218 3739 8222 3757 8223 3758 8213
      3757 8214 3755 8213 3756 8211 3755 8210
      3756 8208 3753 8205 3755 8204 3754 8202
      3754 8197
TIME...MOT...LOC 2018Z 266DEG 35KT 3749 8214

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.25 IN
MAX WIND GUST...50 MPH

GREIF

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service JACKSON KY
421 PM EDT Tue May 16 2023

KYZ106-108-109-162045-
Magoffin KY-Morgan KY-Wolfe KY-
421 PM EDT Tue May 16 2023

...A strong thunderstorm will impact portions of southwestern Morgan,
central Magoffin and northeastern Wolfe Counties through 445 PM
EDT...

At 421 PM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm over
Adele, or 11 miles south of West Liberty, moving east at 30 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 50 mph and penny size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor damage to outdoor objects is
         possible.

This strong thunderstorm will be near...
  Lewis, Burg, Wheel Rim and Caney around 425 PM EDT.
  Epson, Hager, Netty, Lykins, Cutuno, Harper, Dale, Holliday and
  Williams around 430 PM EDT.
  Stella, Kernie, Ova, Bethanna, Patton, Fritz, Seiltz, Puncheon,
  Wonnie and Eugene around 435 PM EDT.
  Gullett, Gifford, Elsie, Hendricks and Cisco around 440 PM EDT.

Other locations in the path of this storm include Salyersville,
Mason, Lakesville, Stringtown, Burning Fork, Licksburg, Perlie,
Cyrus, Mashfork and Bradley.

THIS INCLUDES Bert T. Combs Mountain Parkway between mile markers 53
and 76.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

A Severe Thunderstorm Watch remains in effect until 800 PM EDT for
southeastern and northeastern Kentucky.

&&

LAT...LON 3783 8298 3764 8300 3771 8342 3785 8338
TIME...MOT...LOC 2021Z 272DEG 28KT 3775 8331

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.75 IN
MAX WIND GUST...50 MPH

GEERTSON

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service JACKSON KY
425 PM EDT Tue May 16 2023

KYZ085>087-162115-
Whitley KY-Knox KY-Bell KY-
425 PM EDT Tue May 16 2023

...A strong thunderstorm will impact portions of Bell, Knox and
Whitley Counties through 515 PM EDT...

At 425 PM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm over
Rockholds, or 8 miles northeast of Williamsburg, moving east at 25
mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 50 mph and nickel size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor damage to outdoor objects is
         possible.

This strong thunderstorm will be near...
  Wilton and Louden around 435 PM EDT.
  Indian Creek, Permon, Clate, Arkle, Rossland, Bertha Station, Gray
  and Gausdale around 440 PM EDT.
  Dishman Springs, Swan Lake, Emmanuel, Lowell, King, Bentley
  Station, Garrich, Bryants Store and Birdseye around 445 PM EDT.

Other locations in the path of this storm include Swanpond, Baileys
Switch, Hubbs, Barbourville, Boone Heights, Heidrick, Artemus, Brush
Creek, Cannon, Myrick, Jarvis, Yeager, Bimble, Avis, Hinkle, Girdler,
Trosper, Green Road, Baughman, Old Flat Lick, Himyar, Flat Lick,
Dewitt, Barnyard and Fourmile.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

This storm may intensify, so be certain to monitor local radio
stations and available television stations for additional information
and possible warnings from the National Weather Service.

A Severe Thunderstorm Watch remains in effect until 800 PM EDT for
south central and southeastern Kentucky.

&&

LAT...LON 3659 8422 3664 8427 3692 8420 3701 8373
      3696 8364 3696 8362 3695 8356 3683 8349
      3681 8351 3678 8349 3673 8350 3669 8346
      3659 8404
TIME...MOT...LOC 2025Z 264DEG 23KT 3684 8410

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.88 IN
MAX WIND GUST...50 MPH

GREIF