Special Weather Statement, NWS Jacksonville, FL

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Jacksonville FL
709 PM EDT Tue Aug 29 2023

...New AVIATION...

.NEAR TERM, SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, MARINE, HYDROLOGY...
.HURRICANE WATCHES UPGRADED TO HURRICANE WARNINGS FOR INLAND
COUNTIES OF SOUTHEAST GEORGIA AND NORTHEAST FLORIDA...
.HURRICANE IDALIA EXPECTED TO MAKE LANDFALL WEDNESDAY MORNING...

.NEAR TERM...(Through Tonight)...
Issued at 530 PM EDT Tue Aug 29 2023

High instability remains over the area well ahead of the arrival
of Hurricane Idalia, and has resulted in areas of convection this
afternoon over southeast GA with an associated banding feature.
These storms have already produced very heavy rains and gusty
winds at times, and this will remain possible through this
evening. Further bands will continue to pinwheel northward from
southwest FL through this evening as well, with these bands just
about to enter Marion County as of 21Z into the unstable airmass
in northeast FL. Although some weakening will occur after sunset,
this band of thunderstorms could certainly produce some strong
wind gusts over southern parts of the area, with a quick spin up
tornado also not out of the question given the approaching
environment. As this weakens and moves into southeast GA, most of
the area will likely get a break for at least a few hours
overnight before the main bulk of the precip shield of Idalia
approaches early Wednesday Morning.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Wednesday through Thursday night)
Issued at 530 PM EDT Tue Aug 29 2023

The forecast for Idalia continues to be for the system to
strengthen into a major hurricane just prior to landfall Wednesday
Morning. Although guidance and the official forecast has nudged
further northwest with a landfall forecast to be near Taylor
County, the potential still remains for a very compact area of
major hurricane force conditions near the immediate eye wall over
extreme western Suwannee and Gilchrist Counties before the
hurricane weakens to below major status. Thereafter, Idalia is
forecast to continue quick progress northeastward towards and
across southeastern GA through Wednesday evening, with these areas
having the highest chance of observing sustained hurricane force
winds during this time frame. Further products with details for
these risks, as well as flooding and storm surge, can be found in
our Hurricane Idalia briefing as well as with many products with
the NHC. However, the bottom line is that the highest threat with
this particular storm will be a wind threat due to the fast
forward motion of hurricane. Although sustained winds will drop
off rather significantly moving away from the inner core of the
system, strong gusts at times will still be expected moving
towards southeast portions of the CWA with associated rain bands.

The primary circulation with Idalia will move out of our area and
towards the Carolinas Wednesday Night and into the Overnight
hours, which will gradually subside our winds, but associated rain
as a dry slot wraps into most of the region into Thursday. Rain
chances will still exist to an extent on Thursday with a surface
trough lingering, especially over southern areas. Though some
daytime heating should bring at least a slight chance north of
I-10 as well. Rain chances continue to diminish into Thursday
Night with some drier air allowing some temps below 70 degrees to
likely occur over interior southeast GA.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Friday through next Tuesday)
Issued at 530 PM EDT Tue Aug 29 2023

A quieter period is expected from the end of the work week and into
next week. With an upper level ridge building over the area,
drier air is expected to filter into the area. This will lead to
rainfall chances remaining low over the weekend and into early
next week. Temperatures are expected to be seasonal with highs
ranging from the upper 80s to mid 90s across the area with
overnight lows in the upper 60s to mid 70s.

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 705 PM EDT Tue Aug 29 2023

Line of strong storms will impact all of the NE FL TAF sites
through 02Z, while just a few VCSH at SSI this evening, then a
brief lull in activity with just VCSH through 06Z then increasing
winds and downward trend in CIGS/VSBYS as bands from Idalia push
in from the SW and across all TAF sites through the remainder of
the period and have trended towards winds of 35-45 knots from the
South in the morning then becoming Southwest by the afternoon
hours in the 18-24Z time frame. Have gone with basic SHRA with
some embedded storms (VCTS) as rain bands continue to pass across
the TAF sites through the period.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 530 PM EDT Tue Aug 29 2023

Swells from Hurricane Franklin to the east will continue Today
resulting in increasing waves ahead of Hurricane Idalia. Idalia
is expected to further intensify as it move northward and turn
north/northwestward as it approaches the Big Bend region of
Florida in the next 12-24 hours. Idalia is expected to move across
the northwestern FL peninsula into south- central GA Wednesday,
and then eastern SC and offshore Wednesday night and Thursday.
Winds and seas will increase across area waters Tuesday night into
Wednesday in response to Idalia.

Rip Currents: High Risk through Wednesday NE FL/SE GA.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
Issued at 530 PM EDT Tue Aug 29 2023

A flood watch remains in effect for most of the CWA, with the rain
totals with Hurricane Idalia (3-6+ inches) to occur over southeast
GA and interior northeast FL. Elsewhere, a general 1-3 inches will
be expected with the exception of more coastal
Duval/St.Johns/Flagler Counties. Minor flooding is therefore
possible, with a "moderate" risk of excessive rainfall per the WPC
issued for the areas where the most rain is expected ("slight" and
"marginal" risks elsewhere).

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG  75  81  73  87 /  60 100  70  20
SSI  81  88  76  90 /  70 100  70  30
JAX  78  85  74  92 /  70  90  40  50
SGJ  79  88  76  91 /  70  90  40  60
GNV  76  83  74  90 /  80 100  40  70
OCF  77  84  76  90 /  80  90  60  80

&&

.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...Hurricane Watch for FLZ240.

     Tropical Storm Warning for FLZ024-033-038-124-125-132-133-137-
     138-140-225-232-237-240-325-425.

     Hurricane Warning for FLZ020-021-023-030-031-035-122-136-222-236-
     340.

     Flood Watch from 2 AM EDT Wednesday through Wednesday evening
     for FLZ020-021-023-024-030-031-035-122-124-136-222-236-340.

     High Rip Current Risk through Wednesday evening for FLZ124-125-
     133-138.

     Coastal Flood Advisory from 2 AM to 11 PM EDT Wednesday for
     FLZ124-125-133-138-325.

GA...Hurricane Watch for GAZ136-153-154-165-166.

     Tropical Storm Warning for GAZ132-133-135-136-153-154-165-166.

     Hurricane Warning for GAZ134-149-151-152-162-163-250-264-350-
     364.

     Flood Watch from 2 AM EDT Wednesday through Wednesday evening
     for GAZ132>136-149-151>154-162-163-165-166-250-264-350-364.

     High Rip Current Risk through Wednesday evening for GAZ154-166.

     Storm Surge Watch for GAZ154-166.

AM...Hurricane Watch for AMZ450-470.

     Tropical Storm Warning for AMZ450-452-454-470-472-474.

&&

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Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Jacksonville FL
821 PM EDT Tue Aug 29 2023

FLZ023-030-031-232-300100-
Baker FL-Western Clay FL-Union FL-Bradford FL-
821 PM EDT Tue Aug 29 2023

...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL IMPACT NORTHEASTERN BRADFORD...
SOUTHEASTERN BAKER...NORTHEASTERN UNION AND WEST CENTRAL CLAY
COUNTIES THROUGH 900 PM EDT...

At 820 PM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking strong thunderstorms
capable of producing a landspout along a line extending from near
Camp Blanding to near Kingsley to near Starke. Movement was northwest
at 30 mph.

HAZARD...Landspouts and wind gusts around 40 mph.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Minor damage to outdoor objects is possible. Gusty winds
         could knock down tree limbs and blow around unsecured
         objects.

Locations impacted include...
Starke, Raiford, Macclenny, Glen St. Mary, Sanderson, Camp Blanding,
Kingsley, Lawtey, and Ellerbee.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

&&

LAT...LON 3030 8211 3030 8226 3012 8238 2993 8209
      2999 8194
TIME...MOT...LOC 0020Z 153DEG 26KT 3001 8198 3000 8209 2995 8216

LANDSPOUT...POSSIBLE
MAX HAIL SIZE...0.00 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH

KB