Flash Flood Warning 7, NWS Jacksonville, FL

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Jacksonville FL
631 AM EDT Wed Aug 30 2023

...New AVIATION...
Conditions have started to deteriorate at TAF sites in northeast
Florida as rainbands from Hurricane Idalia pass over the area.
Widespread rain with embedded TSRA will continue throughout most
of the day with persistent MVFR cigs and bouts of IFR or even
brief periods of LIFR conditions with heavier convection. SE winds
will increase to 30G40kt, with direction shifting to SW this
afternoon as Idalia passes well to the west of the TAF sites.

.NEAR TERM...(Through Tonight)...
Issued at 337 AM EDT Wed Aug 30 2023

Major hurricane Idalia now appears to be moving NNE toward the FL
Big Bend region, and will make landfall later this morning, then
track more NE toward Valdosta GA and then toward Jesup GA as the
day progresses. Widespread rain will continue to spread across the
forecast area over the remainder of the night and through the
morning. Anticipating that another tornado watch could come out
before dawn, possibly focused on our eastern counties where we'll
have the best overlap of weak instability and strong low-level
shear, whereas western areas may remain stable due to widespread
rainfall.

Temperatures will be suppressed due to widespread cloudiness and
rainfall. Latest consensus guidance shows high temperatures Today
around 80 across interior parts of ne FL/se GA, with low-mid 80s
possible eastern counties given enough breaks from rain.

Impacts from Idalia will gradually diminish during the evening
with low temperatures expected to be in the lower-mid 70s.

Please note that the ZFP and CWF products will be delayed until
NHC's 5am forecast package is received.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Thursday through Friday night)
Issued at 337 AM EDT Wed Aug 30 2023

Upper ridging builds over the forecast area during this period.
Latest guidance suggests a N-S gradient of moisture in the wake of
Idalia, with greater coverage of afternoon showers/t-storms across
ne FL and only isolated coverage further N both Thursday and
Friday. Near normal temperatures are expected during this period.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Saturday through Tuesday)
Issued at 337 AM EDT Wed Aug 30 2023

Upper ridge intensifies over the southeastern U.S. during this
period with an onshore flow pattern setting up. Latest consensus
guidance suggests fairly dry conditions across se GA, with low
rain chances each day across ne FL. A gradual warming trend is
expected given the strong upper ridge over the area.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1240 AM EDT Wed Aug 30 2023

VFR conditions will continue at TAF sites a few more hours before
we start to see conditions deteriorate from S to N as Hurricane
Idalia starts its pass well W of the area. Widespread rain with
embedded TSRA should spread over the TAF sites during the 08z-12z
period, when we should start to see winds increase with higher
gusts. Latest guidance supports 30ktG40kt wind conditions during
the day, with direction shifting from SE in the morning to SW in
the afternoon.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 337 AM EDT Wed Aug 30 2023

Hurricane Idalia will make landfall across the FL Big Bend Region
this morning, then track across s-ctrl GA later Today. Winds and
seas will increase Today across area waters in response to
Idalia. Winds and seas will gradually decrease late Tonight and
Thursday as Idalia moves away from the area. A northeasterly flow
pattern will set up Friday through the Weekend with high pressure
north of the waters.

Rip Currents: High Risk Today, Moderate Risk Thursday for
NE FL/SE GA.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
Issued at 337 AM EDT Wed Aug 30 2023

A flood watch remains in effect for most of the CWA, with the rain
totals with Hurricane Idalia (3-6+ inches) to occur over southeast
GA and interior northeast FL. Elsewhere, a general 1-3 inches will
be expected except for lesser amounts for the coastal portion of
Duval, St. Johns and Flagler Counties.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG  81  73  88  70 / 100  60  10  10
SSI  88  76  92  75 /  90  70  20  20
JAX  84  74  91  73 / 100  40  40  30
SGJ  88  76  91  75 / 100  40  50  40
GNV  83  74  91  73 / 100  40  60  40
OCF  84  76  91  75 / 100  40  80  60

&&

.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...Tropical Storm Warning for FLZ024-033-038-124-125-132-133-137-
     138-140-225-232-237-240-325-425.

     Flood Watch through this evening for FLZ020-021-023-024-030-031-
     035-122-124-136-222-236-340.

     Hurricane Warning for FLZ020-021-023-030-031-035-122-136-222-236-
     340.

     Coastal Flood Advisory until 11 PM EDT this evening for FLZ124-
     125-133-138-325.

     High Rip Current Risk through this evening for FLZ124-125-133-
     138.

GA...Hurricane Watch for GAZ153-154-165-166.

     Tropical Storm Warning for GAZ153-154-165-166.

     Flood Watch through this evening for GAZ132>136-149-151>154-162-
     163-165-166-250-264-350-364.

     Hurricane Warning for GAZ132>136-149-151-152-162-163-250-264-350-
     364.

     High Rip Current Risk through this evening for GAZ154-166.

     Storm Surge Watch for GAZ154-166.

AM...Hurricane Watch for AMZ450-470.

     Tropical Storm Warning for AMZ450-452-454-470-472-474.

&&

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