Severe Thunderstorm Warning 321, NWS Jacksonville, FL

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Jacksonville FL
645 AM EDT Thu Oct 12 2023

...New AVIATION...

.NEAR TERM...
Issued at 400 AM EDT Thu Oct 12 2023

Showers and storms will continue into the early morning hours
across southeast Georgia and northeast Florida, with a tornado
watch in effect for northeast Florida until 9am today. As the low
pressure moves along a frontal boundary over northeast Florida,
winds will begin to pick up with the highest winds expected for
southern locations in northeast Florida with wind gusts of 30mph
possible, potentially 40mph. The potential for a Wind advisory
will be re-evaluated in the next update. The low pressure will
begin to move off into the Atlantic waters during the early
afternoon. Heavy rainfall will still be possible for locations
along the I-95 corridor and south of the I-10 as the frontal
boundary remains over the area through today, with activity
beginning to wind down into the evening.

Highs on Thursday will range from around the high 60s to low 70s
across inland southeast GA, to the low and mid 80s in the warm
sector across north central FL.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Friday through Saturday night)
Issued at 400 AM EDT Thu Oct 12 2023

FRI...

Unsettled weather continues into Friday as another impulse rides
along the diffuse frontal zone that will lay between I-10 and I-4.
Combination of lift along the frontal zone and a developing surface
low will lead to at least scattered showers through Friday evening.
Thunderstorm potential is a bit more uncertain given the meager
instability. However, isolated storms that develop (along and south
of the frontal zone - mainly north-central FL) will be capable of
strong outflow winds. Shower coverage will diminish during the
evening with the loss of heating but a isolated activity will
continue as the low moves off the coast and a surface trough (psuedo
cold front) trails in its wake. Wide range of temperatures with the
frontal zone situated across the area. Mid to upper 70s across SE GA
on the cool side and low to mid 80s on the warm side in NE FL.

SAT...

Dry air advecting in from the northwest will limit any potential for
rain with a more substantial trough dragging a colder and drier
front through the area Saturday night. Clearing skies during the
afternoon hours temperatures will warm into the low 80s in SE GA and
mid 80s across NE FL.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Sunday through Wednesday)
Issued at 400 AM EDT Thu Oct 12 2023

Large-scale upper trough will carve out across the eastern US
through Wednesday. Shortwaves rounding the upper trough will send
reinforcing shots of cool air into the with dry frontal passages.
This will result in a period of much cooler than normal temperatures
along with a prolonged period of dry and breezy conditions. By
Thursday the trough finally lifts out and surface high pressure
builds to the northeast bringing a return of onshore flow and
increasing cloud cover.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 642 AM EDT Thu Oct 12 2023

Showers and storms continue to move across the area at the start
of the TAF period. By the afternoon, activity should begin to
become less extensive, but periods of heavier showers possible
along coastal areas of Florida.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 400 AM EDT Thu Oct 12 2023

A warm front will move across the northeast Florida waters by the
early morning hours today. Strong to severe thunderstorms capable
of producing waterspouts possible through this afternoon,
especially for the waters from St. Augustine southward. Small
Craft Advisory conditions forecast for local waters. Winds will
shift to northerly and then northeasterly as a passing low
pressure center moves offshore, with winds and seas diminishing by
Thursday night and Friday. A frontal boundary will linger over
the northeast Florida waters on Friday and Friday night, with
another round of showers and thunderstorms possible on Friday
afternoon and evening. A strong cold front will then cross our
local waters on Saturday afternoon and evening, with breezy
northwesterly winds developing in the wake of this front on Sunday
and Sunday night.

Rip Currents: High risk continues for southeast Georgia waters
through Thursday. With a moderate risk of Rip currents for
northeast Florida waters.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
Issued at 400 AM EDT Thu Oct 12 2023

Rain accumuluations across northeast FL will result in rises in
area rivers including portions of the Santa Fe and St Marys
Rivers. River levels are expected to stay below flood stage at
this time.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG  67  63  79  66 /  90  30  40  20
SSI  76  69  82  69 / 100  30  40  30
JAX  78  70  85  67 /  90  40  40  10
SGJ  83  72  86  69 /  90  40  50  20
GNV  83  71  87  68 /  90  30  40  10
OCF  84  74  87  70 /  90  40  40  10

&&

.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
GA...High Rip Current Risk through late tonight for GAZ154-166.

AM...Small Craft Advisory until 5 AM EDT Friday for AMZ450-470-472.

     Small Craft Advisory until noon EDT today for AMZ452-454.

     Small Craft Advisory until 5 PM EDT this afternoon for AMZ474.

&&

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