Severe Thunderstorm Warning 79, NWS Jackson, MS

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Jackson MS
643 AM CST Fri Mar 3 2023

...New AVIATION...

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 324 AM CST Fri Mar 3 2023

Today through tonight: A strong shortwave trough is crossing the
lower MS Valley region early this morning with a narrow line of
mostly sub-severe convection having developed ahead of the
associated cold front. A largely capped warm sector per latest
soundings is helping to limit deep convection and the overall
severe threat in spite of very strong wind shear. Out of respect
for the shear will maintain a slight risk for severe storms
through early morning. However, the primary concern, especially
later this morning behind the front, will be the tight pressure
gradient and deep mixing of strong low level winds. A high wind
warning has been issued for portions of the upper Delta region for
the 6 am to noon time frame in anticipation of peak downward
transport of wind associated with a 50 to 70 kt low level jet.
Otherwise, a wind advisory continues until 6 pm for the entire
area. Expect wind to diminish quickly for tonight with a much
cooler airmass allowing temperatures to dip well into the 40s.
/EC/

Saturday through Next Week: After a week filled with being under
multiple severe weather threats, the region will get a break from
rain and storms this weekend. This break won't last long though
thanks to a series of frontal boundaries. Surface high pressure
will build in just north of the state late Friday night bringing
dry weather through the weekend with highs ranging from the mid
60s to low 80s. By early Monday morning, a warm front just off the
MS/LA coast will lift north to about the HWY 84 corridor. Not
only will this warm front bring the possibility of some light
rain, but with the increased southerly flow, temperatures will be
fairly warm Monday and Tuesday with highs in the upper 70s to the
mid 80s. Light rain will be possible Monday afternoon along/
southeast of a line stretching from the Golden Triangle to just
east of Natchez. The warm front will wash out by Monday afternoon
however, and then a cold front will approach from the west with an
increase in rain chances Tuesday through Friday.

While this looks to be a weak frontal boundary, it is expected to
stall across the I-20 corridor Tuesday and Wednesday increasing rain
and storm chances for much of the region. The front will be east of
the region by Friday afternoon however before its final departure,
the front will lift north Thursday afternoon creating widespread
rainfall Thursday through Friday morning. Post frontal boundary, low
temperatures for Thursday and Friday nights will drop into the
30s. /JNE/

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 638 AM CST Fri Mar 3 2023

Strong gradient winds and TSRA will be primary concerns in
addition to reduced ceilings today, but expect the TSRA threat to
end prior to 18z while the wind diminishes later today as the
strong low exits the area. /EC/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Jackson       74  46  71  48 /  70   0   0   0
Meridian      77  46  72  48 /  60   0   0   0
Vicksburg     73  46  71  48 /  70   0   0   0
Hattiesburg   78  48  76  50 /  40   0   0   0
Natchez       73  46  72  50 /  50   0   0   0
Greenville    70  45  66  47 /  90   0   0   0
Greenwood     71  46  67  48 /  90   0   0   0

&&

.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...Wind Advisory until 6 PM CST this evening for MSZ028>033-037>039-
     043>066-072>074.

     High Wind Warning until noon CST today for MSZ018-019-025>027-
     034>036-040>042.

     Wind Advisory from noon today to 6 PM CST this evening for
     MSZ018-019-025>027-034>036-040>042.

LA...Wind Advisory until 6 PM CST this evening for LAZ007-015-016-
     023>026.

     High Wind Warning until noon CST today for LAZ008-009.

     Wind Advisory from noon today to 6 PM CST this evening for
     LAZ008-009.

AR...Wind Advisory until 6 PM CST this evening for ARZ074.

     High Wind Warning until noon CST today for ARZ075.

     Wind Advisory from noon today to 6 PM CST this evening for
     ARZ075.

&&

EC/JNE/EC

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Jackson MS
517 AM CST Fri Mar 3 2023

ARZ074-LAZ007-008-015-016-023>026-MSZ028>033-036>039-042>066-
041130-
Ashley-Morehouse-West Carroll-Richland-Madison LA-Franklin LA-
Catahoula-Tensas-Concordia-Montgomery-Webster-Clay-Lowndes-
Choctaw-Oktibbeha-Holmes-Attala-Winston-Noxubee-Yazoo-Madison MS-
Leake-Neshoba-Kemper-Warren-Hinds-Rankin-Scott-Newton-Lauderdale-
Claiborne-Copiah-Simpson-Smith-Jasper-Clarke-Jefferson-Adams-
Franklin MS-Lincoln-Lawrence-Jefferson Davis-Covington-Jones-
517 AM CST Fri Mar 3 2023

This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of southeast
Arkansas, northeast Louisiana, central Mississippi, north central
Mississippi, northeast Mississippi, and south central
Mississippi.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight

SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
THREAT...Slight
TIMING...Today

NON-THUNDERSTORM WINDS
THREAT...Elevated
TIMING...Today

Today, severe thunderstorms and tornadoes are possible. Some
thunderstorms could produce damaging winds to 60 mph perhaps a
tornado.

(https://www.weather.gov/images/jan/graphicast/2.png)

Today, a few downed trees and power lines are possible due to
sustained winds ranging from 25 to 35 mph and potential for wind
gusts over 40 mph. Travel will also be difficult for those in
high profile vehicles.

(https://www.weather.gov/images/jan/graphicast/1.png)

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Saturday through Thursday

The probability for widespread hazardous weather is low.

.SPOTTER CALL TO ACTION STATEMENT...
The activation of storm spotters, HAM radio operators, and
emergency management personnel in support of severe weather
operations may be needed for portions of the region today.

ARZ075-LAZ009-MSZ018-019-025>027-034-035-040-041-041130-
Chicot-East Carroll-Bolivar-Sunflower-Leflore-Grenada-Carroll-
Washington-Humphreys-Issaquena-Sharkey-
517 AM CST Fri Mar 3 2023

This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of southeast
Arkansas, northeast Louisiana, central Mississippi, north central
Mississippi, northwest Mississippi, and west central Mississippi.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight

SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
THREAT...Slight
TIMING...Today

NON-THUNDERSTORM WINDS
THREAT...Significant
TIMING...Today

Today, severe thunderstorms and tornadoes are possible. Some
thunderstorms could produce damaging winds to 60 mph and perhaps a
tornado.

(https://www.weather.gov/images/jan/graphicast/2.png)

Today, scattered downed trees and power lines are likely due to
sustained winds over 35 mph and potential wind gusts greater than
50 mph. Travel could be very difficult for those in high profile
vehicles.

(https://www.weather.gov/images/jan/graphicast/1.png)

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Saturday through Thursday

The probability for widespread hazardous weather is low.

.SPOTTER CALL TO ACTION STATEMENT...
The activation of storm spotters, HAM radio operators, and
emergency management personnel in support of severe weather
operations may be needed for portions of the region today.

MSZ072>074-041130-
Marion-Lamar-Forrest-
517 AM CST Fri Mar 3 2023

This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of south central
Mississippi, and southeast Mississippi.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight

SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
THREAT...Marginal
TIMING...Today

NON-THUNDERSTORM WINDS
THREAT...Elevated
TIMING...Today

Today, isolated severe thunderstorms are possible. Some
thunderstorms could produce damaging wind gusts.

(https://www.weather.gov/images/jan/graphicast/2.png)

Today, a few downed trees and power lines are possible due to
sustained winds ranging from 25 to 35 mph and potential for wind
gusts over 40 mph. Travel will also be difficult for those in
high profile vehicles.

(https://www.weather.gov/images/jan/graphicast/1.png)

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Saturday through Thursday

The probability for widespread hazardous weather is low.

.SPOTTER CALL TO ACTION STATEMENT...
The activation of storm spotters, HAM radio operators, and
emergency management personnel in support of severe weather
operations may be needed for portions of the region today.

&&

...HAZARD LEGEND...

*SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS*
High...Significant severe thunderstorms and tornadoes are
 likely with strong or violent tornadoes possible.
Moderate...Significant severe thunderstorms and tornadoes are
 likely with strong tornadoes possible.
Enhanced...Severe thunderstorms are likely and tornadoes are
 possible.
Slight...Severe thunderstorms and tornadoes are possible.
Marginal...Isolated severe thunderstorms are possible.

*NON-THUNDERSTORM WINDS*
Significant...Scattered downed trees and power lines are likely
 due to sustained winds over 35 mph and potential wind gusts
 greater than 50 mph.
Elevated...A few downed trees and power lines are possible due
 to sustained winds ranging from 25 to 35 mph and potential for
 wind gusts over 40 mph. Travel will also be difficult for those
 in high profile vehicles.
Limited...Weak trees and limbs may break and fall due to
 sustained winds up to 25 mph and wind gusts around 35 mph.
 High profile vehicles could also be affected.

...USEFUL WEATHER WEB PAGES (URLS)...

NWS JAN Home page...
   https://www.weather.gov/jan
Stay Aware, Stay Safe NWS JAN Briefing Page...
   https://www.weather.gov/jan/safe
Latest Weather Briefing...
   https://www.weather.gov/jan/weather_briefing

Find NWS JAN on Facebook...
   https://www.facebook.com/NWSJacksonMS
Follow NWS JAN on Twitter...
   @NWSJacksonMS
Follow NWS JAN on Youtube...
   https://www.youtube.com/user/NWSJacksonMiss

...ADDITIONAL URLS FOR SEVERE WEATHER ISSUES...

Storm Prediction Center (SPC)...
   https://www.spc.noaa.gov/
Meso Analysis...
   https://www.spc.noaa.gov/exper/mesoanalysis/
Day 1 through 3 Outlooks...
   https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/
Storm Reports...
   https://www.spc.noaa.gov/climo/online/

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