High Wind Warning 2, NWS Jackson, MS

641 
WWUS74 KJAN 031652
NPWJAN

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Jackson MS
1052 AM CST Fri Mar 3 2023

ARZ075-LAZ008-009-MSZ018-019-025>027-034>036-040>042-040000-
/O.CON.KJAN.HW.W.0002.000000T0000Z-230303T1800Z/
/O.CON.KJAN.WI.Y.0008.230303T1800Z-230304T0000Z/
Chicot-West Carroll-East Carroll-Bolivar-Sunflower-Leflore-
Grenada-Carroll-Washington-Humphreys-Holmes-Issaquena-Sharkey-
Yazoo-
Including the cities of Dermott, Lake Village, Eudora, Oak Grove,
Epps, Lake Providence, Cleveland, Indianola, Ruleville, 
Greenwood, Grenada, Vaiden, North Carrollton, Carrollton, 
Greenville, Belzoni, Isola, Durant, Tchula, Lexington, Pickens, 
Goodman, Mayersville, Rolling Fork, Anguilla, and Yazoo City
1052 AM CST Fri Mar 3 2023

...HIGH WIND WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL NOON CST TODAY...
...WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS EVENING...

* WHAT...For the High Wind Warning, southwest winds 25 to 35 mph 
  with gusts up to 55 mph expected. For the first Wind Advisory, 
  south winds 20 to 30 mph with gusts up to 45 mph. For the 
  second Wind Advisory, west winds 20 to 25 mph with gusts up to 
  40 mph expected.

* WHERE...Portions of southeast Arkansas, northeast Louisiana 
  and west central to north central Mississippi.

* WHEN...High Wind Warning, from 6 AM until noon CST today. For 
  the first Wind Advisory, until 6 AM CST early this morning. 
  For the second Wind Advisory, from noon today to 6 PM CST this 
  evening.

* IMPACTS...During the high wind warning, strong winds could 
  blow down trees and power lines, so power outages should be 
  expected. Travel will be difficult, especially for high 
  profile vehicles. During the wind advisory, gusty winds could 
  blow around unsecured objects and tree limbs could be blown 
  down resulting in a few power outages.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

People should avoid being outside in forested areas and around
trees and branches. If possible, remain in the lower levels of
your home during the windstorm, and avoid windows. Use caution if
you must drive.

&&

$$

ARZ074-LAZ007-015-016-023>026-MSZ028>033-037>039-043>066-072>074-
040000-
/O.CON.KJAN.WI.Y.0007.000000T0000Z-230304T0000Z/
Ashley-Morehouse-Richland-Madison LA-Franklin LA-Catahoula-Tensas-
Concordia-Montgomery-Webster-Clay-Lowndes-Choctaw-Oktibbeha-
Attala-Winston-Noxubee-Madison MS-Leake-Neshoba-Kemper-Warren-
Hinds-Rankin-Scott-Newton-Lauderdale-Claiborne-Copiah-Simpson-
Smith-Jasper-Clarke-Jefferson-Adams-Franklin MS-Lincoln-Lawrence-
Jefferson Davis-Covington-Jones-Marion-Lamar-Forrest-
Including the cities of Crossett, North Crossett, Hamburg, 
West Crossett, Bastrop, Rayville, Delhi, Tallulah, Winnsboro, 
Jonesville, Harrisonburg, Newellton, St. Joseph, Waterproof, 
Vidalia, Ferriday, West Ferriday, Winona, Eupora, Mathiston, 
West Point, Columbus, Ackerman, Weir, Starkville, Kosciusko, 
Louisville, Macon, Brooksville, Ridgeland, Madison, Canton, 
Carthage, Philadelphia, Pearl River, De Kalb, Scooba, Vicksburg, 
Jackson, Pearl, Brandon, Richland, Forest, Morton, Newton, Union,
Decatur, Conehatta, Meridian, Port Gibson, Crystal Springs, 
Hazlehurst, Wesson, Magee, Mendenhall, Taylorsville, Raleigh, 
Bay Springs, Heidelberg, Quitman, Stonewall, Shubuta, Fayette, 
Natchez, Bude, Roxie, Meadville, Brookhaven, Monticello, 
New Hebron, Prentiss, Bassfield, Collins, Mount Olive, Laurel, 
Columbia, West Hattiesburg, Lumberton, Purvis, and Hattiesburg
1052 AM CST Fri Mar 3 2023

...WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS EVENING...

* WHAT...Southwest winds 25 to 35 mph with gusts up to 40 to 45 
  mph expected.

* WHERE...Portions of southeast Arkansas, northeast Louisiana 
  and central, east central, north central, northeast, 
  northwest, south central, southeast, southwest and west 
  central Mississippi.

* WHEN...Until 6 PM CST today.

* IMPACTS...Gusty winds could blow around unsecured objects. 
  Tree limbs could be blown down and a few power outages may 
  result.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Use extra caution when driving, especially if operating a high
profile vehicle. Secure outdoor objects.

&&

$$

LCP

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Jackson MS
1136 PM CST Thu Mar 2 2023

...New AVIATION...

.MESOSCALE UPDATE...
Issued at 953 PM CST Thu Mar 2 2023

Satellite imagery showed the closed low over the Texas panhandle
while surface analysis had a 993mb low near the ArkLaTex. These
lows will track northeast through Friday and bring the potential
for strong gusty winds and severe storms to at least the northwest
portions of our CWA. Surface observations show a gusty southeast
to south wind developing over the western portions of the CWA.
Regional radars show a line of storms over east Texas that will
take some time to enter our CWA. There were only a few warm
advection showers noted on regional radars ahead of the line of
storms. Have increased pops across our southeast tonight to
account for these light showers. Much of the latest cam guidance
continues to hint at a weakening of the main line of convection as
it moves into our CWA towards sunrise but considering the
anticipated wind field the potential will remain for damaging wind
gusts. Even away from convection gradient ducted winds from aloft
will be Wind advisory criteria over much of the CWA with the
strongest wind gusts in excess of 50mph possible through Friday
morning over our northwest most zones. Otherwise, the strong waa
ahead of the approaching line of storms will hold morning lows
well above normal. /22/

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 312 PM CST Thu Mar 2 2023

Tonight-Friday...

Strong closed low will dig over central TX & into the ArkLaTex &
eject ENE across the Mid S to OH Valley tonight through the day. As
the upper jet/favorable jet dynamics (i.e. right entrance region of
110-120kt 500mb jet) begins to intensify to the W & sfc low rapidly
deepens over E TX, storm coverage will begin to increase across the
ArkLaTex into the evening hours. This synoptic pattern will lead to
quick cyclogenesis, with rapidly deepening sfc low nearly 990mb
across E TX, ~980-985mb in N AR into the Ozarks & mid MS Valley &
nearly 975mb into the OH Valley. Strong cold front is still expected
to move into the W portions of the region tonight, but recent trends
persist for more uncertainty on storm intensity/organization as it
propagates further E. CAMs indicate some gravity wave ahead, leading
to some increased confidence of capping/limited low-level
instability. Regardless, anomalous low-level shear of +50-60kts @
850mb & strong forcing will lead to a fast line moving across the
area. With the recent trends in decreased lapse rates, more capping
& unfavorable timing, tornado potential has decreased & further NW.
The "Enhanced" risk was earlier pulled NW of the Natchez Trace &
into the ArkLaMiss Delta & strong tornado probs look less likely.
Left most of the rest of the messaging the same, but tornado
potential looks more limited into the Pine Belt, so left that out
there. Timing has slowed, mainly after midnight west of the MS
River, just prior to or near daybreak in the I-55 corridor & just
after daybreak to mid-morning into E MS.

In addition, nearly a 7-10mb pressure gradient & strong low-level
flow will support strong gradient winds, with widespread gusts near
or in excess of 40mph & sustained winds nearly 25-35mph, especially
in the along & N of I-20. Expanded the "Elevated" area for gradient
winds in the HWO to include all of the CWA & wind advisory remains
areawide. Kept the mention of the potential gusts near or in excess
of 50mph in the Delta, but this looks to be confined to a few hours
in mid-morning Fri. Kept mention in the HWO but held off on High
Wind Warning during this time. Expect winds to gradually relax into
the aftn hours.

For forecast elements, the front & line line moves out of the region
by mid-morning Friday & all rain chances come to an end by midday
Friday. Expect rain chances to quickly dwindle in the wake into Fri
morning W of I-55 & out of the region by midday Fri. With rain, wind
& clouds, lows will be warm overnight in the low to mid 60s, with
cooler highs in the wake in the upper 60s NW to low-mid 70s SE. /DC/

Friday night through Wednesday night...High pressure will build in
over the area Friday night into Saturday. Temperatures will be
cooler Friday night, with lows mostly in the mid 40s. A nice day is
on tap for Saturday, with mostly sunny skies and highs ranging from
the mid 60s north to mid 70s in the south. High pressure will
continue on Sunday, but as the surface high moves east of the area
the flow will become more southeasterly. Highs will climb into the
mid/upper 70s with the southerly flow. A warm front will push
northward on Monday and this may kick off a few showers Monday into
Monday night.

The ECMWF/GFS push a weak frontal boundary into the area on Tuesday
and this will continue to kick of showers across the area. The
boundary will hang around the region on Wednesday and Wednesday
night, with continued chances for showers/thunderstorms. /15/

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1132 PM CST Thu Mar 2 2023

MVFR cigs wl continue to develop from the south across the area.
MVFR cigs wl prevail until improving from the west after 13Z. A
strong gusty south wind has developed this evening and will
continue to strengthen the remainder of tonight with gusts of
35-40kts by 12Z. This wind will be ahead of a cold front that wl
move across the region between 10Z-16Z and bring a line of TSRA
over the TAF sites. VFR conditions are expected areawide by 18Z
but the strong gusty wind wl continue through 23Z before
subsiding. /22/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Jackson       78  63  72  46 /  40  30  50   0
Meridian      79  66  74  48 /  40  20  50   0
Vicksburg     80  61  71  47 /  40  80  20   0
Hattiesburg   84  69  76  49 /  20  20  40   0
Natchez       82  60  72  47 /  20  70  10   0
Greenville    73  59  67  44 /  40  90  30   0
Greenwood     73  62  67  45 /  40  70  60   0

&&

.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...Wind Advisory until 6 PM CST Friday for MSZ018-019-025>066-
     072>074.

LA...Wind Advisory until 6 PM CST Friday for LAZ007>009-015-016-
     023>026.

AR...Wind Advisory until 6 PM CST Friday for ARZ074-075.

&&

DC/15/22

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Jackson MS
329 PM CST Thu Mar 2 2023

ARZ074-LAZ007>009-032130-
Ashley-Morehouse-West Carroll-East Carroll-
329 PM CST Thu Mar 2 2023

This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of southeast
Arkansas, and northeast Louisiana.

.DAY ONE...Tonight and Friday

SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
THREAT...Enhanced
TIMING...Tonight through Friday morning

NON-THUNDERSTORM WINDS
THREAT...Elevated
TIMING...Tonight through Friday

Tonight through Friday morning, severe thunderstorms are likely
and tornadoes are possible. Some thunderstorms may produce
damaging winds up to 70 mph.

(https://www.weather.gov/images/jan/graphicast/1.png)

Tonight through Friday, a few downed trees and power lines are
possible due to sustained winds ranging from 25 to 35 mph and
potential for wind gusts over 40 mph. Travel will also be
difficult for those in high profile vehicles.

(https://www.weather.gov/images/jan/graphicast/2.png)

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday night through Wednesday

The probability for widespread hazardous weather is low.

.SPOTTER CALL TO ACTION STATEMENT...
The activation of storm spotters, HAM radio operators, and
emergency management personnel in support of severe weather
operations may be needed for portions of the region tonight
through Friday.

ARZ075-MSZ018-019-025-034-035-032130-
Chicot-Bolivar-Sunflower-Leflore-Washington-Humphreys-
329 PM CST Thu Mar 2 2023

This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of southeast
Arkansas, central Mississippi, north central Mississippi, and
northwest Mississippi.

.DAY ONE...Tonight and Friday

SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
THREAT...Enhanced
TIMING...Tonight through Friday morning

NON-THUNDERSTORM WINDS
THREAT...Significant
TIMING...Tonight through Friday

Tonight through through Friday morning, severe thunderstorms are
likely and tornadoes are possible. Some thunderstorms may produce
damaging winds up to 70 mph.

(https://www.weather.gov/images/jan/graphicast/1.png)

Tonight through Friday, numerous downed trees and power lines are
possible due to sustained winds over 30 mph and potential wind
gusts greater than 50 mph. Travel will be hazardous for those in
high profile vehicles.

(https://www.weather.gov/images/jan/graphicast/2.png)

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday night through Wednesday

The probability for widespread hazardous weather is low.

.SPOTTER CALL TO ACTION STATEMENT...
The activation of storm spotters, HAM radio operators, and
emergency management personnel in support of severe weather
operations may be needed for portions of the region tonight
through Friday.

LAZ015-016-023>026-MSZ026>033-036>039-042>066-032130-
Richland-Madison LA-Franklin LA-Catahoula-Tensas-Concordia-
Grenada-Carroll-Montgomery-Webster-Clay-Lowndes-Choctaw-Oktibbeha-
Holmes-Attala-Winston-Noxubee-Yazoo-Madison MS-Leake-Neshoba-
Kemper-Warren-Hinds-Rankin-Scott-Newton-Lauderdale-Claiborne-
Copiah-Simpson-Smith-Jasper-Clarke-Jefferson-Adams-Franklin MS-
Lincoln-Lawrence-Jefferson Davis-Covington-Jones-
329 PM CST Thu Mar 2 2023

This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of northeast
Louisiana, central Mississippi, north central Mississippi,
northeast Mississippi, and south central Mississippi.

.DAY ONE...Tonight and Friday

SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
THREAT...Slight
TIMING...Tonight through Friday morning

NON-THUNDERSTORM WINDS
THREAT...Elevated
TIMING...Tonight through Friday

Tonight through Friday morning, severe thunderstorms and
tornadoes are possible. Some thunderstorms could produce damaging
winds to 60 mph.

(https://www.weather.gov/images/jan/graphicast/1.png)

Tonight through Friday, a few downed trees and power lines are
possible due to sustained winds ranging from 25 to 35 mph and
potential for wind gusts over 40 mph. Travel will also be
difficult for those in high profile vehicles.

(https://www.weather.gov/images/jan/graphicast/2.png)

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday night through Wednesday

The probability for widespread hazardous weather is low.

.SPOTTER CALL TO ACTION STATEMENT...
The activation of storm spotters, HAM radio operators, and
emergency management personnel in support of severe weather
operations may be needed for portions of the region tonight
through Friday.

MSZ040-041-032130-
Issaquena-Sharkey-
329 PM CST Thu Mar 2 2023

This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of west central
Mississippi.

.DAY ONE...Tonight and Friday

SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
THREAT...Slight
TIMING...Tonight through Friday morning

NON-THUNDERSTORM WINDS
THREAT...Significant
TIMING...Tonight through Friday

Tonight through Friday morning, severe thunderstorms and
tornadoes are possible. Some thunderstorms could produce damaging
winds to 60 mph.

(https://www.weather.gov/images/jan/graphicast/1.png)

Tonight through Friday, numerous downed trees and power lines are
possible due to sustained winds over 30 mph and potential wind
gusts greater than 50 mph. Travel will be hazardous for those in
high profile vehicles.

(https://www.weather.gov/images/jan/graphicast/2.png)

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday night through Wednesday

The probability for widespread hazardous weather is low.

.SPOTTER CALL TO ACTION STATEMENT...
The activation of storm spotters, HAM radio operators, and
emergency management personnel in support of severe weather
operations may be needed for portions of the region tonight
through Friday.

MSZ072>074-032130-
Marion-Lamar-Forrest-
329 PM CST Thu Mar 2 2023

This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of south central
Mississippi, and southeast Mississippi.

.DAY ONE...Tonight and Friday

SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
THREAT...Marginal
TIMING...Tonight through Friday morning

NON-THUNDERSTORM WINDS
THREAT...Elevated
TIMING...Tonight through Friday

Tonight through Friday morning, isolated severe thunderstorms are
possible. Some thunderstorms could produce damaging wind gusts.

(https://www.weather.gov/images/jan/graphicast/1.png)

Tonight through Friday, a few downed trees and power lines are
possible due to sustained winds ranging from 25 to 35 mph and
potential for wind gusts over 40 mph. Travel will also be
difficult for those in high profile vehicles.

(https://www.weather.gov/images/jan/graphicast/2.png)

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday night through Wednesday

The probability for widespread hazardous weather is low.

.SPOTTER CALL TO ACTION STATEMENT...
The activation of storm spotters, HAM radio operators, and
emergency management personnel in support of severe weather
operations may be needed for portions of the region tonight
through Friday.

23

&&

...HAZARD LEGEND...

*SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS*
High...Significant severe thunderstorms and tornadoes are
 likely with strong or violent tornadoes possible.
Moderate...Significant severe thunderstorms and tornadoes are
 likely with strong tornadoes possible.
Enhanced...Severe thunderstorms are likely and tornadoes are
 possible.
Slight...Severe thunderstorms and tornadoes are possible.
Marginal...Isolated severe thunderstorms are possible.

*NON-THUNDERSTORM WINDS*
Significant...Scattered downed trees and power lines are likely
 due to sustained winds over 35 mph and potential wind gusts
 greater than 50 mph.
Elevated...A few downed trees and power lines are possible due
 to sustained winds ranging from 25 to 35 mph and potential for
 wind gusts over 40 mph. Travel will also be difficult for those
 in high profile vehicles.
Limited...Weak trees and limbs may break and fall due to
 sustained winds up to 25 mph and wind gusts around 35 mph.
 High profile vehicles could also be affected.

...USEFUL WEATHER WEB PAGES (URLS)...

NWS JAN Home page...
   https://www.weather.gov/jan
Stay Aware, Stay Safe NWS JAN Briefing Page...
   https://www.weather.gov/jan/safe
Latest Weather Briefing...
   https://www.weather.gov/jan/weather_briefing

Find NWS JAN on Facebook...
   https://www.facebook.com/NWSJacksonMS
Follow NWS JAN on Twitter...
   @NWSJacksonMS
Follow NWS JAN on Youtube...
   https://www.youtube.com/user/NWSJacksonMiss

...ADDITIONAL URLS FOR SEVERE WEATHER ISSUES...

Storm Prediction Center (SPC)...
   https://www.spc.noaa.gov/
Meso Analysis...
   https://www.spc.noaa.gov/exper/mesoanalysis/
Day 1 through 3 Outlooks...
   https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/
Storm Reports...
   https://www.spc.noaa.gov/climo/online/