Severe Thunderstorm Warning 595, NWS Jackson, MS

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Jackson MS
952 PM CST Sat Dec 9 2023

...New MESOSCALE UPDATE...

.MESOSCALE UPDATE...
Issued at 939 PM CST Sat Dec 9 2023

Local radars had a band of storms nearly along and east of the
Natchez Trace. This band of storms was also along ahead of a cold
front. There will remain the potential for isolated severe storms
over our southeast until the cold front moves through. The main
threats for the storms is damaging wind gusts and hail but, a
tornado or two cannot be ruled out. The cold front will southeast
of our CWA by 2AM. In the wake of the cold front temperatures
have been knocked down in the 50s and the rain has gradually
tapered off. The forecast has been updated to reflect the latest
radar trends and timing of the cold front. /22/

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 234 PM CST Sat Dec 9 2023

Tonight and Tomorrow:

Thunderstorms, some of which may become severe, remain the main
concern through late tonight. A low pressure system spinning over
the Upper Midwest/Great Lakes region this afternoon has its cold
front extending southward and southwestward to the border between
eastern AR and northwest MS as of the 1 PM obs. Gradual
destabilization of the atmosphere in the warm sector has been
ongoing today, with satellite imagery showing deeper and more
convective looking cloud features. A special 18Z KJAN sounding still
had some capping above 850mb, but the low-level dry air had been
eroded and SBCAPE values increased to over 1500 J/kg compared with
the 12Z sounding's 63. Obviously the main low-level forcing will be
associated with the cold front, and latest mesoanalysis shows
increased frontogenesis accordingly across eastern AR/northwest MS.
Farther south though, the differential heating due to breaking cloud
cover has allowed some scattered showers and a few storms to develop
across portions of southern and eastern MS, and instability and
shear are both adequate to support a strong to severe thunderstorm.
Will keep with the main timing as outlined on our severe
thunderstorm outlook graphic, but isolated strong to severe
convection ahead of the front cannot be ruled out.

It still appears that the greatest risk for wind/hail/tornado
threats is mainly in the northern portions of our forecast area into
northern MS/western TN this evening, but the overlap of decent
instability and wind shear across the warm sector means even some
short-lived cores along the cold front could sustain long enough to
produce a localized hail, damaging wind, or tornado threat. Mid-
level lapse rates will be less advantageous for hail farther
southeast, and the shear profile a little less favorable for
tornadoes or a sustained wind threat. Therefore the threat becomes
more Marginal by the time the cold front reaches the Pine Belt later
tonight. The worst of the weather should be clear of our forecast
area by about midnight to 2 a.m., though some showers could linger
until around sunrise tomorrow. A dry, cool day is then expected
across the area with highs topping out around 50 degrees most
locations. /NF/

Sunday night through next Saturday...

A fairly quiet extended period is expected in the wake of this
evening's severe weather threat. By Monday, a potent upper trough is
progged to be just east of the Lower Mississippi Valley. This will
establish NW flow into the region, bringing cooler and drier air.
Seasonable temperatures are expected on Monday, with highs in the
lower to upper 50s and lows near freezing to the middle 30s on
Monday night. Temperatures through the remainder of the week are
expected to remain mostly seasonable. Flow will remain mostly zonal,
with dry conditions prevailing through most of the week.

By Friday, a cutoff low over the Texas Panhandle is expected to
bring our next chance for precipitation across the region. The upper
low is expected to dive into the Lower Mississippi Valley by
Saturday, bringing the chance for mostly showers and some
thunderstorms across the area next weekend. /AJ/

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 713 PM CST Sat Dec 9 2023

TSRA are ongoing across the region along a southeastward advancing
front, through around and 10/08Z Sunday, with drops to IFR
vsby & lowered ceilings at times. Gusty winds out of the south
ahead of the front will become northerly behind the cold front &
remain gusty to around 20-25 kts at times. Expect conditions to
clear in the wake, with improving flight categories to VFR in the
wake by mid- late aftn Sunday. /NF/DC/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Jackson       45  50  30  57 /  90  10   0   0
Meridian      49  53  29  56 / 100  50   0   0
Vicksburg     44  52  29  57 /  60   0   0   0
Hattiesburg   51  54  31  57 / 100  30   0   0
Natchez       44  52  31  58 /  80  10   0   0
Greenville    41  50  31  54 /  30   0   0   0
Greenwood     42  49  29  55 /  40  10   0   0

&&

.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...None.
LA...None.
AR...None.
&&

NF/AJ/DC

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Jackson MS
958 PM CST Sat Dec 9 2023

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0917 PM     Tornado          2 S Piney Woods         32.03N 89.99W
12/09/2023                   Simpson            MS   Emergency Mngr

            Multipe trees down across HWY 49 due to
            possible Tornado.

0931 PM     Tornado          3 SSW Puckett           32.04N 89.80W
12/09/2023                   Simpson            MS   Emergency Mngr

            Numerous trees down along HWY 13 due to
            possible tornado.

&&

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Jackson MS
1002 PM CST Sat Dec 9 2023

MSZ050-051-100445-
Scott MS-Newton MS-
1002 PM CST Sat Dec 9 2023

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT NEWTON AND SOUTHEASTERN SCOTT
COUNTIES THROUGH 1045 PM CST...

At 1002 PM CST, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm over
Lake, or 8 miles west of Newton, moving east at 35 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 40 mph and half inch hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor hail damage to vegetation is
         possible.

This strong thunderstorm will be near...
  Newton, Lawrence, and Roberts around 1010 PM CST.
  Decatur and Hickory around 1020 PM CST.
  Chunky around 1030 PM CST.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

A Tornado Watch remains in effect until midnight CST for central and
east central Mississippi.

&&

LAT...LON 3222 8940 3246 8941 3249 8892 3223 8891
TIME...MOT...LOC 0402Z 266DEG 29KT 3232 8930

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.50 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH

19

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Jackson MS
1004 PM CST Sat Dec 9 2023

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0610 PM     Hail             Benton                  32.83N 90.26W
12/09/2023  E1.00 inch       Yazoo              MS   Public

            Social media posts from the public reported
            quarter size hail in Benton Mississippi, 3
            miles south of Yazoo City.

&&

CR

<!doctype html>
<html lang="en">
<head>
  <meta charset="utf-8">
  <meta name="viewport" content="width=device-width, initial-scale=1">
  <title>Service Notice</title>
  <link rel="stylesheet" href="index.css">
</head>
<body>
  <main class="wrap">
    <section class="card" role="status" aria-live="polite">
      <div class="status" id="status">Temporary Notice</div>
      <h1 id="headline">This service is currently unavailable.</h1>
      <p id="message1">
        The site you requested is temporarily down for maintenance or an unexpected outage.
      </p>
      <p id="message2">
        Please try again in a few minutes.
      </p>
      <p class="small" id="detail">
        If you are an administrator, restore upstream service and remove the redirect/fallback rule when normal operations resume.
      </p>
    </section>
  </main>
  <script src="index.js"></script>
</body>
</html>

<!doctype html>
<html lang="en">
<head>
  <meta charset="utf-8">
  <meta name="viewport" content="width=device-width, initial-scale=1">
  <title>Service Notice</title>
  <link rel="stylesheet" href="index.css">
</head>
<body>
  <main class="wrap">
    <section class="card" role="status" aria-live="polite">
      <div class="status" id="status">Temporary Notice</div>
      <h1 id="headline">This service is currently unavailable.</h1>
      <p id="message1">
        The site you requested is temporarily down for maintenance or an unexpected outage.
      </p>
      <p id="message2">
        Please try again in a few minutes.
      </p>
      <p class="small" id="detail">
        If you are an administrator, restore upstream service and remove the redirect/fallback rule when normal operations resume.
      </p>
    </section>
  </main>
  <script src="index.js"></script>
</body>
</html>

<!doctype html>
<html lang="en">
<head>
  <meta charset="utf-8">
  <meta name="viewport" content="width=device-width, initial-scale=1">
  <title>Service Notice</title>
  <link rel="stylesheet" href="index.css">
</head>
<body>
  <main class="wrap">
    <section class="card" role="status" aria-live="polite">
      <div class="status" id="status">Temporary Notice</div>
      <h1 id="headline">This service is currently unavailable.</h1>
      <p id="message1">
        The site you requested is temporarily down for maintenance or an unexpected outage.
      </p>
      <p id="message2">
        Please try again in a few minutes.
      </p>
      <p class="small" id="detail">
        If you are an administrator, restore upstream service and remove the redirect/fallback rule when normal operations resume.
      </p>
    </section>
  </main>
  <script src="index.js"></script>
</body>
</html>