Severe Thunderstorm Warning 593, NWS Jackson, MS

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Jackson MS
713 PM CST Sat Dec 9 2023

...New AVIATION...

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 234 PM CST Sat Dec 9 2023

Tonight and Tomorrow:

Thunderstorms, some of which may become severe, remain the main
concern through late tonight. A low pressure system spinning over
the Upper Midwest/Great Lakes region this afternoon has its cold
front extending southward and southwestward to the border between
eastern AR and northwest MS as of the 1 PM obs. Gradual
destabilization of the atmosphere in the warm sector has been
ongoing today, with satellite imagery showing deeper and more
convective looking cloud features. A special 18Z KJAN sounding still
had some capping above 850mb, but the low-level dry air had been
eroded and SBCAPE values increased to over 1500 J/kg compared with
the 12Z sounding's 63. Obviously the main low-level forcing will be
associated with the cold front, and latest mesoanalysis shows
increased frontogenesis accordingly across eastern AR/northwest MS.
Farther south though, the differential heating due to breaking cloud
cover has allowed some scattered showers and a few storms to develop
across portions of southern and eastern MS, and instability and
shear are both adequate to support a strong to severe thunderstorm.
Will keep with the main timing as outlined on our severe
thunderstorm outlook graphic, but isolated strong to severe
convection ahead of the front cannot be ruled out.

It still appears that the greatest risk for wind/hail/tornado
threats is mainly in the northern portions of our forecast area into
northern MS/western TN this evening, but the overlap of decent
instability and wind shear across the warm sector means even some
short-lived cores along the cold front could sustain long enough to
produce a localized hail, damaging wind, or tornado threat. Mid-
level lapse rates will be less advantageous for hail farther
southeast, and the shear profile a little less favorable for
tornadoes or a sustained wind threat. Therefore the threat becomes
more Marginal by the time the cold front reaches the Pine Belt later
tonight. The worst of the weather should be clear of our forecast
area by about midnight to 2 a.m., though some showers could linger
until around sunrise tomorrow. A dry, cool day is then expected
across the area with highs topping out around 50 degrees most
locations. /NF/

Sunday night through next Saturday...

A fairly quiet extended period is expected in the wake of this
evening's severe weather threat. By Monday, a potent upper trough is
progged to be just east of the Lower Mississippi Valley. This will
establish NW flow into the region, bringing cooler and drier air.
Seasonable temperatures are expected on Monday, with highs in the
lower to upper 50s and lows near freezing to the middle 30s on
Monday night. Temperatures through the remainder of the week are
expected to remain mostly seasonable. Flow will remain mostly zonal,
with dry conditions prevailing through most of the week.

By Friday, a cutoff low over the Texas Panhandle is expected to
bring our next chance for precipitation across the region. The upper
low is expected to dive into the Lower Mississippi Valley by
Saturday, bringing the chance for mostly showers and some
thunderstorms across the area next weekend. /AJ/

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 713 PM CST Sat Dec 9 2023

TSRA are ongoing across the region along a southeastward advancing
front, through around and 10/08Z Sunday, with drops to IFR
vsby & lowered ceilings at times. Gusty winds out of the south
ahead of the front will become northerly behind the cold front &
remain gusty to around 20-25 kts at times. Expect conditions to
clear in the wake, with improving flight categories to VFR in the
wake by mid- late aftn Sunday. /NF/DC/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Jackson       42  50  30  57 /  90  20   0   0
Meridian      46  53  29  56 / 100  40   0   0
Vicksburg     42  52  29  57 / 100  10   0   0
Hattiesburg   49  54  31  57 /  90  30   0   0
Natchez       42  52  31  58 /  90  10   0   0
Greenville    39  50  31  54 /  50   0   0   0
Greenwood     39  49  29  55 /  90  10   0   0

&&

.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...None.
LA...None.
AR...None.
&&

DC/AJ/DC

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