Severe Thunderstorm Warning 441, NWS Jackson, MS

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Jackson MS
944 PM CDT Sun Jun 18 2023

...New MESOSCALE UPDATE...

.MESOSCALE UPDATE...
Issued at 932 PM CDT Sun Jun 18 2023

After the morning convection scoured out the airmass, afternoon
heating resulted in a rapid recovery and local radars were lit up
at mid evening with storms over our east and northeast Mississippi
zones. Much of this activity was producing severe weather with
wind and tornadoes being the main threat although hail and locally
heavy rain was also occuring with the strongest storms. This
activity was moving to the east and additional development is
expected during the next several hours. Some area rivers are in
flood from the rainfall over the last several days and in addition
to the severe weather threat, flash flooding will also be possible
over east Mississippi the next several hours. The chance for rain
has been adjusted based on radar trends and temperature curves
were adjusted based on rain cooled areas. /22/

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 356 PM CDT Sun Jun 18 2023

Overview...

Severe storms will continue today and tonight as a short wave is
fueling an MCS and pushing southeastward into a very unstable
environment. 5800 j/kg of CAPE have been observed along with very
steep midlevel lapse rates around 8 c/km. Unseasonably strong deep
layer shear is helping to maintain these storms and and stagnant
pattern is fueling multiple rounds over several days. This is likely
to continue into tonight until Monday as an upper low traverses
across Tennessee and Alabama. This should turn flow northerly
across the area and advect drier air and should bring reprieve
from this current unsettled pattern for much of the area, but it
should be noted that climatology suggests it may be difficult to
maintain a drier airmass. As the upper low influences our area,
the stalled frontal boundary that has been in the vicinity of the
I-20 corridor should push south and west. Given available moisture
and instability, storms are still possible Monday along this
boundary in far southwest Mississippi and eastern Louisiana.
Throughout the week, temperatures and dewpoints should be
relatively lower providing some relief for much of the area.

Today and tonight...

Severe storms from this morning have cleared the area and skies are
clearing from west to east. Mid to upper 70s dewpoints are being
observed in southern Louisiana and this plume of moisture is
being advected into our area as evidenced by satellite imagery and
observations across the southeast. This should set up a nice
recovery of airmass ahead of a deepening low pressure system. As
of 1:40 PM, surface pressure measured was 1010mb and is falling
quickly, with modeled pressure falls to be as much as 6 mb in 6
hours. Many CAMs are in agreement with an intense QLCS that pushes
through later this evening and into tonight. Favorable convective
parameters (3500+ j/kg CAPE, vertical totals 31, midlevel lapse
rates 8 c/km) will be supportive of damaging wind gusts and large
hail once again. However, unlike previous events, southeasterlies
are being observed across the area as a boundary pushes northward
from southern Louisiana, which could increase tornado potential
with favorable low level shear. HRRR depicts 200-300 m^2/s^2 0-1
km SRH and WSW oriented shear vectors. CU fields are observed
along the boundary and mesoanalysis shows 5000-7000 j/kg of SBCAPE
across southern Louisiana, which will be supportive of rapid
upscale growth. /SAS/

Monday through next weekend...

Looking ahead to tomorrow, a residual boundary from tonight's
convection will serve as the main focus for a corridor of yet
another round of storms, with damaging wind gusts and large hail the
primary threats given 3500+ j/kg of CAPE and vertical totals 28-31.
There is however notably weaker shear as the pattern begins to wind
down and this may preclude extreme intensity, however strong to
severe storms are still probable along this boundary. Thankfully the
focus will be south and west of most of our area, however eastern
Louisiana and extreme southwest Mississippi may be impacted.

As mentioned previously, the pattern should wind down this week,
replaced by a rex block pattern that should relieve us from most
activity in the midst of an upper low advecting drier air on the
backside. Climatology dictates however that maintaining a drier
airmass will be difficult and rain and storms are still possible
daily, therefore have maintained pops. Despite daily pops, the
upcoming week should feature more seasonable norms. /SAS/

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 645 PM CDT Sun Jun 18 2023

Local radars showed TSRA developing over the western and cntrl MS.
This activity will spread east northeast across the area affecting
most TAF sites this evening. Away from TSRA activity, VFR
conditions wl continue. After 06Z as the TSRA activity diminishes,
MVFR cigs are expected to develop and continue through 16Z before
improving to VFR by 18Z. The coverage of aftn and evng TSRA Monday
wl be across the se half of hour CWA. /22/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Jackson       72  91  70  90 /  60  30  20  40
Meridian      70  90  68  91 /  70  40  20  40
Vicksburg     72  91  72  89 /  60  10  20  30
Hattiesburg   75  93  72  91 /  40  70  30  60
Natchez       73  94  73  90 /  50  20  30  50
Greenville    70  90  70  90 /  60   0  10  10
Greenwood     71  90  70  90 /  70   0  10  10

&&

.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...Flood Watch until 7 AM CDT Monday for MSZ026>033-036>039-042>046-
     048>052-054>058-062>066-072>074.

LA...None.
AR...None.
&&

SAS20/22

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Jackson MS
533 PM CDT Sun Jun 18 2023

ARZ074-075-LAZ007>009-015-016-MSZ018-019-025-034-035-040-041-047-
192245-
Ashley-Chicot-Morehouse-West Carroll-East Carroll-Richland-
Madison LA-Bolivar-Sunflower-Leflore-Washington-Humphreys-
Issaquena-Sharkey-Warren-
533 PM CDT Sun Jun 18 2023

This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of southeast
Arkansas, northeast Louisiana, central Mississippi, north central
Mississippi, northwest Mississippi, and west central Mississippi.

.DAY ONE...Tonight and Monday

SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
THREAT...Enhanced
TIMING...Tonight

FLOODING
THREAT...Limited
TIMING...Tonight

Tonight, severe thunderstorms are likely and tornadoes are
possible. Some thunderstorms may produce damaging winds up to
70 mph and large hail up to tennis ball size.

(https://www.weather.gov/images/jan/graphicast/1.png)

Tonight, localized flash flooding is possible, particularly in
low lying and urban areas. Minor river flooding is also possible.

(https://www.weather.gov/images/jan/graphicast/2.png)

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Monday night through Saturday

The probability for widespread hazardous weather is low.

.SPOTTER CALL TO ACTION STATEMENT...
The activation of storm spotters, HAM radio operators, and
emergency management personnel in support of severe weather
operations may be needed for portions of the region tonight.

MSZ026>033-036>039-042>046-048>052-192245-
Grenada-Carroll-Montgomery-Webster-Clay-Lowndes-Choctaw-Oktibbeha-
Holmes-Attala-Winston-Noxubee-Yazoo-Madison MS-Leake-Neshoba-
Kemper-Hinds-Rankin-Scott-Newton-Lauderdale-
533 PM CDT Sun Jun 18 2023

This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of central
Mississippi, east central Mississippi, north central Mississippi,
and northeast Mississippi.

.DAY ONE...Tonight and Monday

SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
THREAT...Enhanced
TIMING...Tonight

FLOODING
THREAT...Elevated
TIMING...Tonight

Tonight, severe thunderstorms are likely and tornadoes are
possible. Some thunderstorms may produce damaging winds up to
70 mph and large hail up to tennis ball size.

(https://www.weather.gov/images/jan/graphicast/1.png)

Tonight, areas of flash flooding likely and some roads could be
flooded or closed. Some structures may be potentially threatened
by high water. Minor river flooding is also possible.

(https://www.weather.gov/images/jan/graphicast/2.png)

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Monday night through Saturday

The probability for widespread hazardous weather is low.

.SPOTTER CALL TO ACTION STATEMENT...
The activation of storm spotters, HAM radio operators, and
emergency management personnel in support of severe weather
operations may be needed for portions of the region tonight.

LAZ023-025-MSZ053-192245-
Franklin LA-Tensas-Claiborne-
533 PM CDT Sun Jun 18 2023

This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of northeast
Louisiana, and southwest Mississippi.

.DAY ONE...Tonight and Monday

SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
THREAT...Enhanced
TIMING...Tonight

FLOODING
THREAT...Limited
TIMING...Tonight

DANGEROUS HEAT
THREAT...Limited
TIMING...Monday

Tonight, severe thunderstorms are likely and tornadoes are
possible. Some thunderstorms may produce damaging winds up to
70 mph and large hail up to tennis ball size.

(https://www.weather.gov/images/jan/graphicast/1.png)

Tonight, localized flash flooding is possible, particularly in
low lying and urban areas. Minor river flooding is also possible.

(https://www.weather.gov/images/jan/graphicast/2.png)

Monday, caution is advised for possible dangerous heat as heat
index values peak near 105 degrees. Heat exhaustion will be
possible with outdoor activity.

(https://www.weather.gov/images/jan/graphicast/5.png)

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Monday night through Saturday

Isolated severe thunderstorms capable od damaging wind gusts and
hail up o the size of quarters are possible again over portions of
the outlook area Tuesday afternoon and evening.

(https://www.weather.gov/images/jan/graphicast/4.png)

Dangerous heat with maximum heat index values of 106 to
110 degrees is expected over southwest portions of the outlook
area again Monday.

(https://www.weather.gov/images/jan/graphicast/5.png)
Dangerous heat with maximum heat index values near 105 degrees is
possible for portions of the outlook area again Monday.

(https://www.weather.gov/images/jan/graphicast/5.png)

.SPOTTER CALL TO ACTION STATEMENT...
The activation of storm spotters, HAM radio operators, and
emergency management personnel in support of severe weather
operations may be needed for portions of the region tonight
and Tuesday through Tuesday night.

MSZ059-061-192245-
Jefferson-Franklin MS-
533 PM CDT Sun Jun 18 2023

This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of southwest
Mississippi.

.DAY ONE...Tonight and Monday

SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
THREAT...Enhanced
TIMING...Mainly Tonight

FLOODING
THREAT...Limited
TIMING...Tonight

DANGEROUS HEAT
THREAT...Limited
TIMING...Monday

Mainly tonight, severe thunderstorms are likely and tornadoes are
possible. Some thunderstorms may produce damaging winds up to
70 mph and large hail up to tennis ball size.

(https://www.weather.gov/images/jan/graphicast/1.png)

Tonight, localized flash flooding is possible, particularly in
low lying and urban areas. Minor river flooding is also possible.

(https://www.weather.gov/images/jan/graphicast/2.png)

Monday, caution is advised for possible dangerous heat as heat
index values peak near 105 degrees. Heat exhaustion will be
possible with outdoor activity.

(https://www.weather.gov/images/jan/graphicast/5.png)

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Monday night through Saturday

Isolated severe thunderstorms capable od damaging wind gusts and
hail up o the size of quarters are possible again over portions of
the outlook area Monday and Tuesday afternoon and evening.

(https://www.weather.gov/images/jan/graphicast/4.png)

Dangerous heat with maximum heat index values of 106 to
110 degrees is expected over southwest portions of the outlook
area again Monday.

(https://www.weather.gov/images/jan/graphicast/5.png)
Dangerous heat with maximum heat index values near 105 degrees is
possible for portions of the outlook area again Monday.

(https://www.weather.gov/images/jan/graphicast/5.png)

.SPOTTER CALL TO ACTION STATEMENT...
The activation of storm spotters, HAM radio operators, and
emergency management personnel in support of severe weather
operations may be needed for portions of the region tonight
through Tuesday night.

LAZ024-026-MSZ060-192245-
Catahoula-Concordia-Adams-
533 PM CDT Sun Jun 18 2023

This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of northeast
Louisiana, and southwest Mississippi.

.DAY ONE...Tonight and Monday

SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
THREAT...Enhanced
TIMING...Mainly Tonight

FLOODING
THREAT...Limited
TIMING...Tonight

DANGEROUS HEAT
THREAT...Elevated
TIMING...Monday

Mainly tonight, severe thunderstorms are likely and tornadoes are
possible. Some thunderstorms may produce damaging winds up to
70 mph and large hail up to tennis ball size.

(https://www.weather.gov/images/jan/graphicast/1.png)

Tonight, localized flash flooding is possible, particularly in
low lying and urban areas. Minor river flooding is also possible.

(https://www.weather.gov/images/jan/graphicast/2.png)

Monday, dangerous heat likely with peak heat index values ranging
from 106 to 110 degrees. Heat exhaustion will be likely with
outdoor activity.

(https://www.weather.gov/images/jan/graphicast/5.png)

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Monday night through Saturday

Isolated severe thunderstorms capable od damaging wind gusts and
hail up o the size of quarters are possible again over portions of
the outlook area Monday and Tuesday afternoon and evening.

(https://www.weather.gov/images/jan/graphicast/4.png)

Dangerous heat with maximum heat index values of 106 to
110 degrees is expected over southwest portions of the outlook
area again Monday.

(https://www.weather.gov/images/jan/graphicast/5.png)

Dangerous heat with maximum heat index values near 105 degrees is
possible for portions of the outlook area again Monday.

(https://www.weather.gov/images/jan/graphicast/5.png)
.SPOTTER CALL TO ACTION STATEMENT...
The activation of storm spotters, HAM radio operators, and
emergency management personnel in support of severe weather
operations may be needed for portions of the region tonight
through Tuesday night.

MSZ054-055-062>066-072>074-192245-
Copiah-Simpson-Lincoln-Lawrence-Jefferson Davis-Covington-Jones-
Marion-Lamar-Forrest-
533 PM CDT Sun Jun 18 2023

This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of central
Mississippi, south central Mississippi, and southeast
Mississippi.

.DAY ONE...Tonight and Monday

SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
THREAT...Enhanced
TIMING...Mainly Tonight

FLOODING
THREAT...Elevated
TIMING...Tonight

DANGEROUS HEAT
THREAT...Limited
TIMING...Monday

Mainly tonight, severe thunderstorms are likely and tornadoes are
possible. Some thunderstorms may produce damaging winds up to
70 mph and large hail up to tennis ball size.

(https://www.weather.gov/images/jan/graphicast/1.png)

Tonight, areas of flash flooding likely and some roads could be
flooded or closed. Some structures may be potentially threatened
by high water. Minor river flooding is also possible.

(https://www.weather.gov/images/jan/graphicast/2.png)

Monday, caution is advised for possible dangerous heat as heat
index values peak near 105 degrees. Heat exhaustion will be
possible with outdoor activity.

(https://www.weather.gov/images/jan/graphicast/5.png)

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Monday night through Saturday

Isolated severe thunderstorms capable od damaging wind gusts and
hail up to the size of quarters are possible again over portions
of the outlook area Monday and Tuesday afternoon and evening.

(https://www.weather.gov/images/jan/graphicast/4.png)

Dangerous heat with maximum heat index values of 106 to
110 degrees is expected over southwest portions of the outlook
area again Monday.

(https://www.weather.gov/images/jan/graphicast/5.png)

Dangerous heat with maximum heat index values near 105 degrees is
possible for portions of the outlook area again Monday.

(https://www.weather.gov/images/jan/graphicast/5.png) Tuesday
afternoon and evening.

(https://www.weather.gov/images/jan/graphicast/4.png)

Dangerous heat with maximum heat index values of 106 to 110
degrees is expected over southwest portions of the outlook area
again Monday.

(https://www.weather.gov/images/jan/graphicast/5.png)

Dangerous heat with maximum heat index values near 105 degrees is
possible for portions of the outlook area again Monday.

(https://www.weather.gov/images/jan/graphicast/5.png)

.SPOTTER CALL TO ACTION STATEMENT...
The activation of storm spotters, HAM radio operators, and
emergency management personnel in support of severe weather
operations may be needed for portions of the region tonight
through Tuesday night.

MSZ056>058-192245-
Smith-Jasper-Clarke-
533 PM CDT Sun Jun 18 2023

This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of central
Mississippi, and east central Mississippi.

.DAY ONE...Tonight and Monday

SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
THREAT...Enhanced
TIMING...Mainly Tonight

FLOODING
THREAT...Elevated
TIMING...Tonight

Mainly tonight, severe thunderstorms are likely and tornadoes are
possible. Some thunderstorms may produce damaging winds up to
70 mph and large hail up to tennis ball size.

(https://www.weather.gov/images/jan/graphicast/1.png)

Tonight, areas of flash flooding likely and some roads could be
flooded or closed. Some structures may be potentially threatened
by high water. Minor river flooding is also possible.

(https://www.weather.gov/images/jan/graphicast/2.png)

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Monday night through Saturday

Isolated severe thunderstorms capable od damaging wind gusts and
hail up o the size of quarters are possible again over portions of
the outlook area Monday and Tuesday afternoon and evening.

(https://www.weather.gov/images/jan/graphicast/4.png)

Dangerous heat with maximum heat index values of 106 to
110 degrees is expected over southwest portions of the outlook
area again Monday.

(https://www.weather.gov/images/jan/graphicast/5.png)

Dangerous heat with maximum heat index values near 105 degrees is
possible for portions of the outlook area again Monday.

(https://www.weather.gov/images/jan/graphicast/5.png)

.SPOTTER CALL TO ACTION STATEMENT...
The activation of storm spotters, HAM radio operators, and
emergency management personnel in support of severe weather
operations may be needed for portions of the region tonight
through Tuesday night.

0

&&

...HAZARD LEGEND...

*SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS*
High...Significant severe thunderstorms and tornadoes are
 likely with strong or violent tornadoes possible.
Moderate...Significant severe thunderstorms and tornadoes are
 likely with strong tornadoes possible.
Enhanced...Severe thunderstorms are likely and tornadoes are
 possible.
Slight...Severe thunderstorms and tornadoes are possible.
Marginal...Isolated severe thunderstorms are possible.

*FLOODING*
Extreme...Widespread and significant flooding is likely.
Significant...Widespread flash flooding is likely
 and significant flooding is possible.
Elevated...Areas of flash flooding likely.
Limited...Localized flash flooding is possible.

*DANGEROUS HEAT*
Extreme...Extreme heat is expected with peak heat index values
 in excess of 110 degrees for multiple days. Heat stroke continues
 to be a major concern.
Significant...Dangerous heat expected with peak heat index values
 in excess of 110 degrees. Heat stroke will be a significant
 concern.
Elevated...Dangerous heat likely with peak heat index values
 ranging from 106 to 110 degrees. Heat exhaustion will be likely.
Limited...Caution is advised for possible dangerous heat as
 heat index values peak near 105 degrees. Heat exhaustion will
 be possible.

...USEFUL WEATHER WEB PAGES (URLS)...

NWS JAN Home page...
   https://www.weather.gov/jan
Stay Aware, Stay Safe NWS JAN Briefing Page...
   https://www.weather.gov/jan/safe
Latest Weather Briefing...
   https://www.weather.gov/jan/weather_briefing

Tropical page...
   https://www.weather.gov/srh/tropical?office=jan
National Hurricane Center Home Page...
   https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/
Find NWS JAN on Facebook...
   https://www.facebook.com/NWSJacksonMS
Follow NWS JAN on Twitter...
   @NWSJacksonMS
Follow NWS JAN on Youtube...
   https://www.youtube.com/user/NWSJacksonMiss

...ADDITIONAL URLS FOR SEVERE WEATHER ISSUES...

Storm Prediction Center (SPC)...
   https://www.spc.noaa.gov/
Meso Analysis...
   https://www.spc.noaa.gov/exper/mesoanalysis/
Day 1 through 3 Outlooks...
   https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/
Storm Reports...
   https://www.spc.noaa.gov/climo/online/
...ADDITIONAL URLS FOR FLOODING ISSUES...

Current Watches and Warnings...
   https://www.weather.gov/jan/safe_HeavyRain

Observed Precipitation Images...
   https://www.weather.gov/jan/precipmaps

River Forecast Center...
   https://www.weather.gov/lmrfc/
Significant River Flood Outlook...
   https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/nationalfloodoutlook/index.html
Day 1 through 3 Excessive Rainfall...
   https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/excess_rain.shtml
Excessive Rainfall Discussion...
   https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/discussions/qpferd.html
Day 1 through 7 QPF...
   https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/qpf2.shtml
QPF Discussion...
   https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/discussions/qpfpfd.html

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Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Jackson MS
1209 AM CDT Mon Jun 19 2023

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1130 PM     Tornado          3 N Bay Springs         32.02N 89.28W
06/18/2023                   Jasper             MS   Fire Dept/Rescue

            Trees were reported down along Hwy 15.

&&

LCP

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Jackson MS
1212 AM CDT Mon Jun 19 2023

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1144 PM     Tornado          2 N Antioch             32.06N 89.21W
06/18/2023                   Jasper             MS   Storm Chaser

            Storm chaser reported major structural
            damage on CR 16.

&&

LCP

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