River Flood Warning 79, NWS Jackson, MS

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Jackson MS
603 AM CDT Mon Jun 19 2023

...New AVIATION...

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 402 AM CDT Mon Jun 19 2023

Today and Tonight: Local radars still showed storms tracking east
across portions of east and southeast Mississippi. Although the
potential for strong to severe storms has been greatly reduced, an
isolated severe storm capable of damaging wind gusts and hail will
remain possible early this morning.

Otherwise, early morning water vapor imagery/RAP analysis showed the
circulation around a nearly stacked closed low centered over
southern Illinois. A shortwave rounding the base of this low was mid
way across our CWA and helping to maintain convection over east
central Mississippi. This shortwave will continue shifting east and
the closed low will shift east over the the Tennessee valley by this
evening where it is expected to stall tonight. Satellite imagery
also showed plenty of dry air wrapping into the western portions of
our CWA. Early morning surface analysis had a 1005mb low associated
with the closed low centered over central Tennessee with a weak cold
front trailing back to the southwest across our delta region. As
this surface low will move little through through tonight, the cold
front will slowly sag south through the CWA today. This will bring
an end to the severe threat north of the front however, the frontal
boundary will take until this evening to shift south of Highway 84.
Along and south of the front a warm and very moist airmass will
persist. Thus, storms south of the front will have the potential for
becoming strong to severe with damaging wind gusts and hail,
especially during the heat of the day. In addition temperatures
south of the cold front will top out in the mid 90s and combine with
the very high humidity to result in peak heat index values of 105-
110 again. This area is generally along and south of Highway 84.
Although no severe storms are anticipated tonight low rain chances
will continue across our southern most zones due to the presence of
the nearly stationary frontal boundary that may begin drifting back
north prior to sunrise. Low temperatures tonight will continue to
run warmer than normal. /22/

Tuesday through the weekend...

The stagnant pattern our region has been under will finally begin to
shift as an upper low will begin to move south, bringing along some
drier air along its back end. This will help give us a well needed
break from severe weather this week, while also keeping our greatest
POPs mainly south and east of our area. Lingering moisture &
instability will continue to promote convection throughout the week
keeping some low end POPs through central MS on southward.
Temperatures will be somewhat cooler through mid week thanks to the
upper low as northeast MS will keep highs in the low 80s.
Unfortunately, areas south of Interstate 20 or west of Interstate 55
will not receive much of a break from the heat as they will continue
to experience heat indices in the high 90s/low 100s.

By Friday, the upper low will make its way to the northeast, leaving
us with troughing in its wake due to an upper level high building
over south central TX. Moisture will return back into the region
from the east along with high temperatures as well. Regular seasonal
convection will bring scattered showers and storms throughout the
region during the peak daytime heating hours. An heat advisory could
be expected this weekend with areas in southwest MS and NE Louisiana
possibly experiencing heat indices around 105. /LCP/

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 558 AM CDT Mon Jun 19 2023

Local radars showed TSRAs wl impact conditions at PIB and HBG by
12Z and continue through 14Z before improving. GWO observed LIFR
vsbys at 11Z. IFR conditions wl prevail at GWO through 13Z before
improving. Models have backed off on MVFR cigs and VFR conditions
wl prevail at most TAF sites through the TAF period away from
TSRA. Isold mainly aftn TSRA are expected cntrl and south. /22/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Jackson       91  69  91  69 /  10  10  30  20
Meridian      90  68  91  68 /  10   0  20  20
Vicksburg     91  72  91  70 /  10  20  30  20
Hattiesburg   93  72  92  70 /  60  20  60  40
Natchez       94  73  91  70 /  30  20  50  30
Greenville    89  71  90  70 /   0   0  10   0
Greenwood     89  69  90  69 /   0   0  10   0

&&

.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...Heat Advisory from 11 AM this morning to 7 PM CDT this evening
     for MSZ060>066-072>074.

     Flood Watch until 7 AM CDT this morning for MSZ026>033-036>039-
     042>046-048>052-054>058-062>066-072>074.

LA...Heat Advisory from 11 AM this morning to 7 PM CDT this evening
     for LAZ024-026.

AR...None.
&&

22/LCP/22

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Jackson MS
402 AM CDT Mon Jun 19 2023

ARZ074-075-LAZ007>009-015-016-MSZ018-019-025>052-055>058-200915-
Ashley-Chicot-Morehouse-West Carroll-East Carroll-Richland-
Madison LA-Bolivar-Sunflower-Leflore-Grenada-Carroll-Montgomery-
Webster-Clay-Lowndes-Choctaw-Oktibbeha-Washington-Humphreys-
Holmes-Attala-Winston-Noxubee-Issaquena-Sharkey-Yazoo-Madison MS-
Leake-Neshoba-Kemper-Warren-Hinds-Rankin-Scott-Newton-Lauderdale-
Simpson-Smith-Jasper-Clarke-
402 AM CDT Mon Jun 19 2023

This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of southeast
Arkansas, northeast Louisiana, central Mississippi, and north
central Mississippi.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight

The probability for widespread hazardous weather is low.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Tuesday through Sunday

The probability for widespread hazardous weather is low.

.SPOTTER CALL TO ACTION STATEMENT...
The activation of storm spotters, HAM radio operators, and
emergency management personnel in support of severe weather
operations is not expected through next Sunday.

LAZ023-025-MSZ053-054-059-064>066-200915-
Franklin LA-Tensas-Claiborne-Copiah-Jefferson-Jefferson Davis-
Covington-Jones-
402 AM CDT Mon Jun 19 2023

This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of northeast
Louisiana, central Mississippi, and south central Mississippi.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight

DANGEROUS HEAT
THREAT...Limited
TIMING...Today

Today, caution is advised for possible dangerous heat as heat
index values peak near 105 degrees. Heat exhaustion will be
possible with outdoor activity.

(https://www.weather.gov/images/jan/graphicast/2.png)

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Tuesday through Sunday

Severe thunderstorms capable of damaging wind gusts and hail to
the size of quarters are possible across prtions of southwest
Mississippi and portions of northeast Louisiana Tuesday and
Tuesday evening. A brief tornado cannot be ruled out.

(https://www.weather.gov/images/jan/graphicast/3.png)

.SPOTTER CALL TO ACTION STATEMENT...
The activation of storm spotters, HAM radio operators, and
emergency management personnel in support of severe weather
operations may be needed for portions of the region Tuesday
through Tuesday night.

MSZ061>063-200915-
Franklin MS-Lincoln-Lawrence-
402 AM CDT Mon Jun 19 2023

This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of south central
Mississippi, and southwest Mississippi.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight

DANGEROUS HEAT
THREAT...Elevated
TIMING...Today

Today, dangerous heat likely with peak heat index values ranging
from 106 to 110 degrees. Heat exhaustion will be likely with
outdoor activity.

(https://www.weather.gov/images/jan/graphicast/2.png)

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Tuesday through Sunday

Severe thunderstorms capable of damaging wind gusts and hail to
the size of quarters are possible across prtions of southwest
Mississippi and portions of northeast Louisiana Tuesday and
Tuesday evening. A brief tornado cannot be ruled out.

(https://www.weather.gov/images/jan/graphicast/3.png)

.SPOTTER CALL TO ACTION STATEMENT...
The activation of storm spotters, HAM radio operators, and
emergency management personnel in support of severe weather
operations may be needed for portions of the region Tuesday
through Tuesday night.

LAZ024-026-MSZ060-072>074-200915-
Catahoula-Concordia-Adams-Marion-Lamar-Forrest-
402 AM CDT Mon Jun 19 2023

This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of northeast
Louisiana, and south central Mississippi.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight

SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
THREAT...Marginal
TIMING...Today

DANGEROUS HEAT
THREAT...Elevated
TIMING...Today

Today, isolated severe thunderstorms are possible. Some
thunderstorms could produce damaging wind gusts and hail. A
tornado cannot be ruled out.

(https://www.weather.gov/images/jan/graphicast/1.png)

Today, dangerous heat likely with peak heat index values ranging
from 106 to 110 degrees. Heat exhaustion will be likely with
outdoor activity.

(https://www.weather.gov/images/jan/graphicast/2.png)

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Tuesday through Sunday

Severe thunderstorms capable of damaging wind gusts and hail to
the size of quarters are possible across prtions of southwest
Mississippi and portions of northeast Louisiana Tuesday and
Tuesday evening. A brief tornado cannot be ruled out.

(https://www.weather.gov/images/jan/graphicast/3.png)

.SPOTTER CALL TO ACTION STATEMENT...
The activation of storm spotters, HAM radio operators, and
emergency management personnel in support of severe weather
operations may be needed for portions of the region today and
Tuesday through Tuesday night.

0

&&

...HAZARD LEGEND...

*DANGEROUS HEAT*
Extreme...Extreme heat is expected with peak heat index values
 in excess of 110 degrees for multiple days. Heat stroke continues
 to be a major concern.
Significant...Dangerous heat expected with peak heat index values
 in excess of 110 degrees. Heat stroke will be a significant
 concern.
Elevated...Dangerous heat likely with peak heat index values
 ranging from 106 to 110 degrees. Heat exhaustion will be likely.
Limited...Caution is advised for possible dangerous heat as
 heat index values peak near 105 degrees. Heat exhaustion will
 be possible.

*SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS*
High...Significant severe thunderstorms and tornadoes are
 likely with strong or violent tornadoes possible.
Moderate...Significant severe thunderstorms and tornadoes are
 likely with strong tornadoes possible.
Enhanced...Severe thunderstorms are likely and tornadoes are
 possible.
Slight...Severe thunderstorms and tornadoes are possible.
Marginal...Isolated severe thunderstorms are possible.

...USEFUL WEATHER WEB PAGES (URLS)...

NWS JAN Home page...
   https://www.weather.gov/jan
Stay Aware, Stay Safe NWS JAN Briefing Page...
   https://www.weather.gov/jan/safe
Latest Weather Briefing...
   https://www.weather.gov/jan/weather_briefing

Tropical page...
   https://www.weather.gov/srh/tropical?office=jan
National Hurricane Center Home Page...
   https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/
Find NWS JAN on Facebook...
   https://www.facebook.com/NWSJacksonMS
Follow NWS JAN on Twitter...
   @NWSJacksonMS
Follow NWS JAN on Youtube...
   https://www.youtube.com/user/NWSJacksonMiss

...ADDITIONAL URLS FOR SEVERE WEATHER ISSUES...

Storm Prediction Center (SPC)...
   https://www.spc.noaa.gov/
Meso Analysis...
   https://www.spc.noaa.gov/exper/mesoanalysis/
Day 1 through 3 Outlooks...
   https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/
Storm Reports...
   https://www.spc.noaa.gov/climo/online/

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Jackson MS
532 AM CDT Mon Jun 19 2023

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1100 PM     Flash Flood      Carthage                32.74N 89.53W
06/18/2023                   Leake              MS   Emergency Mngr

            Reports of widespread flash flooding around
            Leake County.

&&

LCP

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Jackson MS
534 AM CDT Mon Jun 19 2023

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1115 PM     Flash Flood      1 N Walnut Grove        32.61N 89.46W
06/18/2023                   Leake              MS   Emergency Mngr

            Reports of multiple trees down and flash
            flooding around Leake County.

&&

LCP

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Jackson MS
543 AM CDT Mon Jun 19 2023

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0230 AM     Flash Flood      Arlington               32.88N 89.18W
06/19/2023                   Neshoba            MS   Emergency Mngr

            Trees were reported down in Arlington, also
            flooding in low lying areas.

&&

LCP

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Jackson MS
818 AM CDT Mon Jun 19 2023

MSZ072-191400-
Marion MS-
818 AM CDT Mon Jun 19 2023

...A strong thunderstorm will impact portions of central Marion
County through 900 AM CDT...

At 817 AM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
Holly Springs, or 11 miles west of Columbia, moving east at 25 mph.

HAZARD...Winds in excess of 40 mph and pea size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor damage to outdoor objects is
         possible.

This strong thunderstorm will be near...
  Morgantown around 830 AM CDT.
  Columbia around 845 AM CDT.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

&&

LAT...LON 3122 9003 3123 9003 3124 9004 3135 9004
      3135 8973 3116 8977
TIME...MOT...LOC 1317Z 281DEG 23KT 3128 9001

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.25 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH

CME

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