Severe Thunderstorm Warning 255, NWS Jackson, MS

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Jackson MS
247 PM CDT Mon Jun 5 2023

...New DISCUSSION...

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 245 PM CDT Mon Jun 5 2023

Through Tuesday: Scattered showers and storms have begun to
flourish this afternoon as temps quickly jumped up into the 90s,
steepening low level lapse rates. Upper flow is fairly weak so
many of these updrafts will be short lived, but storms that
organize into clusters or are forced by outflow may be able to
sustain for longer. Forecast guidance was anticipating and SPC
mesoanalysis is now indicating rather impressive DCAPE values
across the area this afternoon, which will provide potential for
isolated damaging wind gusts in stronger downdrafts. This activity
will gradually taper off after sunset with the loss of diurnal
instability, with quieter conditions for the overnight. With the
weak surface trough still situated just north of the area, another
round of scattered diurnally driven convection is expected on
Tuesday. Temperatures will remain seasonable. /DL/

Wednesday through Next Monday ...

As we continue to enter into our true summertime pattern phase,
diurnal showers and storms will be the story for this forecast
period. Though the Omega block that has been in place across our
region for the past week has weakened some, by Wednesday and
Thursday the low pressure system associated with the Omega block
off the Atlantic coast will strengthen. This will push a frontal
boundary into portions our area Thursday. CAPE values ahead of the
front aren't that impressive however 1500-2000+ j/kg along the
boundary combined with daytime heating could set the stage for
some strong to severe storms. As of now, SPC does not have us in
an outlook however, if guidance continues to support this dynamic,
we could see one.

Friday and Saturday the boundary will straddle across central MS
limiting showers and storm potential for areas mainly south of the
I- 20 corridor but by Sunday, the front will slowly begin to lift
north and increase widespread rain and storm chances across the
region through Monday. With us being wedged in between two low
pressure systems, ridging at the surface will offer some support
increasing day-time temperatures in the upper 80s to mid 90s.
However thanks to low dew points, temperatures will feel less
oppressive. /JNE/

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1238 PM CDT Mon Jun 5 2023

VFR conditions prevail across the area this afternoon, but
scattered SHRA/TS are beginning to develop. Brief ceiling/vis
reductions will be possible in TS at area terminals through the
early evening hours. Patchy light fog or brief low ceilings can't
be ruled out Tue morning mainly in southeast MS, but any
categorical restrictions should be brief with VFR conditions
returning shortly after sunrise. /DL/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Jackson       65  89  66  89 /  40  40  20  40
Meridian      65  89  66  90 /  40  30  20  30
Vicksburg     66  89  67  90 /  30  40  20  30
Hattiesburg   65  89  66  89 /  30  50  10  50
Natchez       66  88  66  88 /  40  50  20  40
Greenville    68  90  68  91 /  20  40  20  20
Greenwood     66  89  68  91 /  30  50  20  20

&&

.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...None.
LA...None.
AR...None.
&&

DL/JNE

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Jackson MS
218 PM CDT Mon Jun 5 2023

ARZ074-075-LAZ007>009-015-016-023>026-MSZ018-019-025>066-072>074-
061930-
Ashley-Chicot-Morehouse-West Carroll-East Carroll-Richland-
Madison LA-Franklin LA-Catahoula-Tensas-Concordia-Bolivar-
Sunflower-Leflore-Grenada-Carroll-Montgomery-Webster-Clay-Lowndes-
Choctaw-Oktibbeha-Washington-Humphreys-Holmes-Attala-Winston-
Noxubee-Issaquena-Sharkey-Yazoo-Madison MS-Leake-Neshoba-Kemper-
Warren-Hinds-Rankin-Scott-Newton-Lauderdale-Claiborne-Copiah-
Simpson-Smith-Jasper-Clarke-Jefferson-Adams-Franklin MS-Lincoln-
Lawrence-Jefferson Davis-Covington-Jones-Marion-Lamar-Forrest-
218 PM CDT Mon Jun 5 2023

This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of southeast
Arkansas, northeast Louisiana, and central and south Mississippi.

.DAY ONE...Tonight and Tuesday

SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
THREAT...Marginal
TIMING...Through early evening

Isolated severe thunderstorms capable of producing damaging wind
gusts are possible.

(https://www.weather.gov/images/jan/graphicast/1.png)

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Tuesday night through Sunday

The probability for widespread hazardous weather is low.

.SPOTTER CALL TO ACTION STATEMENT...
The activation of storm spotters, HAM radio operators, and
emergency management personnel in support of severe weather
operations may be needed for portions of the region tonight.

DL

&&

...HAZARD LEGEND...

*SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS*
High...Significant severe thunderstorms and tornadoes are
 likely with strong or violent tornadoes possible.
Moderate...Significant severe thunderstorms and tornadoes are
 likely with strong tornadoes possible.
Enhanced...Severe thunderstorms are likely and tornadoes are
 possible.
Slight...Severe thunderstorms and tornadoes are possible.
Marginal...Isolated severe thunderstorms are possible.

...USEFUL WEATHER WEB PAGES (URLS)...

NWS JAN Home page...
   https://www.weather.gov/jan
Stay Aware, Stay Safe NWS JAN Briefing Page...
   https://www.weather.gov/jan/safe
Latest Weather Briefing...
   https://www.weather.gov/jan/weather_briefing

Tropical page...
   https://www.weather.gov/srh/tropical?office=jan
National Hurricane Center Home Page...
   https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/
Find NWS JAN on Facebook...
   https://www.facebook.com/NWSJacksonMS
Follow NWS JAN on Twitter...
   @NWSJacksonMS
Follow NWS JAN on Youtube...
   https://www.youtube.com/user/NWSJacksonMiss

...ADDITIONAL URLS FOR SEVERE WEATHER ISSUES...

Storm Prediction Center (SPC)...
   https://www.spc.noaa.gov/
Meso Analysis...
   https://www.spc.noaa.gov/exper/mesoanalysis/
Day 1 through 3 Outlooks...
   https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/
Storm Reports...
   https://www.spc.noaa.gov/climo/online/

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Jackson MS
438 PM CDT Mon Jun 5 2023

MSZ043-048-052215-
Hinds MS-Madison MS-
438 PM CDT Mon Jun 5 2023

...A strong thunderstorm will impact portions of northwestern Hinds
and southwestern Madison Counties through 515 PM CDT...

At 437 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
Brownsville, or 13 miles north of Clinton, moving southwest at 15
mph.

HAZARD...Winds in excess of 40 mph and penny size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor damage to outdoor objects is
         possible.

This strong thunderstorm will be near...
  Brownsville around 455 PM CDT.
  Bolton around 510 PM CDT.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

&&

LAT...LON 3250 9058 3251 9055 3250 9052 3252 9052
      3252 9050 3254 9048 3256 9045 3258 9045
      3259 9044 3258 9040 3260 9038 3250 9028
      3231 9046 3243 9060 3245 9059 3248 9061
TIME...MOT...LOC 2137Z 049DEG 15KT 3252 9042

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.75 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH

DB

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