Severe Thunderstorm Warning 251, NWS Jackson, MS

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Jackson MS
247 PM CDT Mon Jun 5 2023

...New DISCUSSION...

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 245 PM CDT Mon Jun 5 2023

Through Tuesday: Scattered showers and storms have begun to
flourish this afternoon as temps quickly jumped up into the 90s,
steepening low level lapse rates. Upper flow is fairly weak so
many of these updrafts will be short lived, but storms that
organize into clusters or are forced by outflow may be able to
sustain for longer. Forecast guidance was anticipating and SPC
mesoanalysis is now indicating rather impressive DCAPE values
across the area this afternoon, which will provide potential for
isolated damaging wind gusts in stronger downdrafts. This activity
will gradually taper off after sunset with the loss of diurnal
instability, with quieter conditions for the overnight. With the
weak surface trough still situated just north of the area, another
round of scattered diurnally driven convection is expected on
Tuesday. Temperatures will remain seasonable. /DL/

Wednesday through Next Monday ...

As we continue to enter into our true summertime pattern phase,
diurnal showers and storms will be the story for this forecast
period. Though the Omega block that has been in place across our
region for the past week has weakened some, by Wednesday and
Thursday the low pressure system associated with the Omega block
off the Atlantic coast will strengthen. This will push a frontal
boundary into portions our area Thursday. CAPE values ahead of the
front aren't that impressive however 1500-2000+ j/kg along the
boundary combined with daytime heating could set the stage for
some strong to severe storms. As of now, SPC does not have us in
an outlook however, if guidance continues to support this dynamic,
we could see one.

Friday and Saturday the boundary will straddle across central MS
limiting showers and storm potential for areas mainly south of the
I- 20 corridor but by Sunday, the front will slowly begin to lift
north and increase widespread rain and storm chances across the
region through Monday. With us being wedged in between two low
pressure systems, ridging at the surface will offer some support
increasing day-time temperatures in the upper 80s to mid 90s.
However thanks to low dew points, temperatures will feel less
oppressive. /JNE/

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1238 PM CDT Mon Jun 5 2023

VFR conditions prevail across the area this afternoon, but
scattered SHRA/TS are beginning to develop. Brief ceiling/vis
reductions will be possible in TS at area terminals through the
early evening hours. Patchy light fog or brief low ceilings can't
be ruled out Tue morning mainly in southeast MS, but any
categorical restrictions should be brief with VFR conditions
returning shortly after sunrise. /DL/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Jackson       65  89  66  89 /  40  40  20  40
Meridian      65  89  66  90 /  40  30  20  30
Vicksburg     66  89  67  90 /  30  40  20  30
Hattiesburg   65  89  66  89 /  30  50  10  50
Natchez       66  88  66  88 /  40  50  20  40
Greenville    68  90  68  91 /  20  40  20  20
Greenwood     66  89  68  91 /  30  50  20  20

&&

.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...None.
LA...None.
AR...None.
&&

DL/JNE

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Jackson MS
218 PM CDT Mon Jun 5 2023

ARZ074-075-LAZ007>009-015-016-023>026-MSZ018-019-025>066-072>074-
061930-
Ashley-Chicot-Morehouse-West Carroll-East Carroll-Richland-
Madison LA-Franklin LA-Catahoula-Tensas-Concordia-Bolivar-
Sunflower-Leflore-Grenada-Carroll-Montgomery-Webster-Clay-Lowndes-
Choctaw-Oktibbeha-Washington-Humphreys-Holmes-Attala-Winston-
Noxubee-Issaquena-Sharkey-Yazoo-Madison MS-Leake-Neshoba-Kemper-
Warren-Hinds-Rankin-Scott-Newton-Lauderdale-Claiborne-Copiah-
Simpson-Smith-Jasper-Clarke-Jefferson-Adams-Franklin MS-Lincoln-
Lawrence-Jefferson Davis-Covington-Jones-Marion-Lamar-Forrest-
218 PM CDT Mon Jun 5 2023

This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of southeast
Arkansas, northeast Louisiana, and central and south Mississippi.

.DAY ONE...Tonight and Tuesday

SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
THREAT...Marginal
TIMING...Through early evening

Isolated severe thunderstorms capable of producing damaging wind
gusts are possible.

(https://www.weather.gov/images/jan/graphicast/1.png)

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Tuesday night through Sunday

The probability for widespread hazardous weather is low.

.SPOTTER CALL TO ACTION STATEMENT...
The activation of storm spotters, HAM radio operators, and
emergency management personnel in support of severe weather
operations may be needed for portions of the region tonight.

DL

&&

...HAZARD LEGEND...

*SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS*
High...Significant severe thunderstorms and tornadoes are
 likely with strong or violent tornadoes possible.
Moderate...Significant severe thunderstorms and tornadoes are
 likely with strong tornadoes possible.
Enhanced...Severe thunderstorms are likely and tornadoes are
 possible.
Slight...Severe thunderstorms and tornadoes are possible.
Marginal...Isolated severe thunderstorms are possible.

...USEFUL WEATHER WEB PAGES (URLS)...

NWS JAN Home page...
   https://www.weather.gov/jan
Stay Aware, Stay Safe NWS JAN Briefing Page...
   https://www.weather.gov/jan/safe
Latest Weather Briefing...
   https://www.weather.gov/jan/weather_briefing

Tropical page...
   https://www.weather.gov/srh/tropical?office=jan
National Hurricane Center Home Page...
   https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/
Find NWS JAN on Facebook...
   https://www.facebook.com/NWSJacksonMS
Follow NWS JAN on Twitter...
   @NWSJacksonMS
Follow NWS JAN on Youtube...
   https://www.youtube.com/user/NWSJacksonMiss

...ADDITIONAL URLS FOR SEVERE WEATHER ISSUES...

Storm Prediction Center (SPC)...
   https://www.spc.noaa.gov/
Meso Analysis...
   https://www.spc.noaa.gov/exper/mesoanalysis/
Day 1 through 3 Outlooks...
   https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/
Storm Reports...
   https://www.spc.noaa.gov/climo/online/

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Jackson MS
305 PM CDT Mon Jun 5 2023

MSZ043-049-050-052030-
Scott MS-Rankin MS-Madison MS-
305 PM CDT Mon Jun 5 2023

...A strong thunderstorm will impact portions of northeastern Rankin,
northwestern Scott and east central Madison Counties through 330 PM
CDT...

At 305 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
Farmhaven, or 15 miles east of Canton, moving west at 10 mph.

HAZARD...Winds in excess of 40 mph and penny size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor damage to outdoor objects is
         possible.

This strong thunderstorm will be near...
  Pisgah around 330 PM CDT.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

&&

LAT...LON 3243 8987 3260 8995 3265 8973 3258 8973
      3258 8967 3251 8964
TIME...MOT...LOC 2005Z 068DEG 10KT 3258 8979

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.75 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH

DB

<!doctype html>
<html lang="en">
<head>
  <meta charset="utf-8">
  <meta name="viewport" content="width=device-width, initial-scale=1">
  <title>Service Notice</title>
  <link rel="stylesheet" href="index.css">
</head>
<body>
  <main class="wrap">
    <section class="card" role="status" aria-live="polite">
      <div class="status" id="status">Temporary Notice</div>
      <h1 id="headline">This service is currently unavailable.</h1>
      <p id="message1">
        The site you requested is temporarily down for maintenance or an unexpected outage.
      </p>
      <p id="message2">
        Please try again in a few minutes.
      </p>
      <p class="small" id="detail">
        If you are an administrator, restore upstream service and remove the redirect/fallback rule when normal operations resume.
      </p>
    </section>
  </main>
  <script src="index.js"></script>
</body>
</html>

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Jackson MS
347 PM CDT Mon Jun 5 2023

LAZ015-052115-
Richland LA-
347 PM CDT Mon Jun 5 2023

...A strong thunderstorm will impact portions of central Richland
Parish through 415 PM CDT...

At 346 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
Alto, or near Rayville, moving west at 20 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 50 mph and nickel size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor damage to outdoor objects is
         possible.

This strong thunderstorm will be near...
  Start around 355 PM CDT.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

&&

LAT...LON 3236 9201 3240 9199 3245 9194 3249 9193
      3251 9190 3254 9189 3252 9184 3254 9184
      3257 9181 3256 9174 3259 9173 3249 9157
      3233 9173 3234 9175 3233 9176 3231 9176
      3225 9182 3233 9201
TIME...MOT...LOC 2046Z 112DEG 16KT 3242 9184

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.88 IN
MAX WIND GUST...50 MPH

DB

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Jackson MS
351 PM CDT Mon Jun 5 2023

MSZ037-044-045-052115-
Neshoba MS-Attala MS-Leake MS-
351 PM CDT Mon Jun 5 2023

...A strong thunderstorm will impact portions of northeastern Leake,
southeastern Attala and northwestern Neshoba Counties through 415 PM
CDT...

At 350 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
Zama, or 9 miles northwest of Pearl River, moving west at 15 mph.

HAZARD...Winds in excess of 40 mph and nickel size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor damage to outdoor objects is
         possible.

This strong thunderstorm will be near...
  Renfroe and Smyrna around 415 PM CDT.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

&&

LAT...LON 3277 8924 3280 8954 3300 8949 3295 8932
      3293 8932 3293 8928 3292 8924
TIME...MOT...LOC 2050Z 092DEG 13KT 3289 8934

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.88 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH

DB

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Jackson MS
358 PM CDT Mon Jun 5 2023

MSZ028-037-052145-
Attala MS-Montgomery MS-
358 PM CDT Mon Jun 5 2023

...A strong thunderstorm will impact portions of northeastern Attala
and south central Montgomery Counties through 445 PM CDT...

At 358 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
Poplar Creek, or 14 miles east of Vaiden, moving southwest at 15 mph.

HAZARD...Winds in excess of 40 mph and penny size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor damage to outdoor objects is
         possible.

This strong thunderstorm will be near...
  Hesterville around 445 PM CDT.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

&&

LAT...LON 3330 8945 3329 8940 3328 8937 3306 8952
      3320 8976 3326 8972 3326 8971 3329 8970
      3329 8965 3335 8964
TIME...MOT...LOC 2058Z 042DEG 14KT 3329 8951

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.75 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH

22

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Jackson MS
401 PM CDT Mon Jun 5 2023

MSZ073-074-052145-
Lamar MS-Forrest MS-
401 PM CDT Mon Jun 5 2023

...A strong thunderstorm will impact portions of south central
Forrest and southern Lamar Counties through 445 PM CDT...

At 401 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm over
Purvis, moving southwest at 15 mph.

HAZARD...Winds in excess of 40 mph and pea size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor damage to outdoor objects is
         possible.

This strong thunderstorm will be near...
  Lumberton around 430 PM CDT.
  Baxterville around 435 PM CDT.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

&&

LAT...LON 3100 8948 3100 8950 3101 8950 3101 8955
      3100 8955 3100 8965 3104 8965 3122 8940
      3110 8925 3099 8934 3101 8935 3101 8942
      3098 8943 3098 8947
TIME...MOT...LOC 2101Z 042DEG 14KT 3111 8939

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.25 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH

22