Alert archive / Mississippi / Flash Flood Warnings in 2023

Flash Flood Warning 13, NWS Jackson, MS

February 8, 2023Forrest County, Lamar County, Mississippi

NWS Jackson, MS issued this flash flood warning at Feb 8, 2023, 11:59 PM CST for Forrest County, Lamar County, Mississippi. It was in force for 91 min. No storm report in the archive falls inside the area while it was in force.

The area

The outline as issued.

The facts

Issued
Feb 8, 2023, 11:59 PM CST (05:59 UTC)
Expired
Feb 9, 2023, 1:30 AM CST
In force
91 min
Issued by
NWS Jackson, MS
Area
Storm-based polygon
Flood severity
None

Counties Forrest County, MS, Lamar County, MS

Did it verify

Not verified. The Iowa Environmental Mesonet's Cow found no qualifying storm report inside this flash flood warning while it was in force. That is not proof nothing happened: reports are thin where few people live.

Cow counts a report within 15 km of the polygon while the warning was in force: a tornado for a tornado warning; hail of 1 inch or more, a gust of 58 mph or more or wind damage for a severe thunderstorm warning; a flash flood report for a flash flood warning.

The nearest sounding before it

Slidell Radar S, LA (KSIL), launched 00:00Z, 6.0 hours before the alert went out and 92 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.

Skew-T log-pSkew-T log-p diagram, Slidell Radar S, LA at 00:00Z on 2023-02-09Temperature and dew point through the depth of the atmosphere, with the mixed-layer parcel. CAPE 1259 joules per kilogram.LCLLFCEL10008507005003002001001 km2 km3 km6 km9 km12 km15 km-30°-20°-10°0°10°20°30°40°
Temperature in red, dew point in green, the mixed-layer parcel dashed.
HodographHodograph, Slidell Radar S, LA at 00:00Z on 2023-02-09The wind through the lowest 10 kilometers. Zero to 1 km storm-relative helicity 188 square meters per square second.193958Sfc1 km3 km6 km9 kmRMLM
The wind turning with height, colored by layer: ground to 1 km, 1 to 3 km, 3 to 6 km, 6 to 10 km.
Mixed-layer CAPE
1259 J/kg
Mixed-layer CIN
-1 J/kg
Mixed-layer LCL
543 m above ground
0-6 km bulk shear
35 kt
0-1 km storm-relative helicity
188 m²/s²
0-3 km storm-relative helicity
227 m²/s²
Significant tornado parameter
0.9
Supercell composite
4.8

Open this sounding in Storm Lab

The text

As transmitted.

410 
WGUS54 KJAN 090559
FFWJAN
MSC035-073-090800-
/O.NEW.KJAN.FF.W.0013.230209T0559Z-230209T0800Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
Flash Flood Warning
National Weather Service Jackson MS
1159 PM CST Wed Feb 8 2023

The National Weather Service in Jackson has issued a

* Flash Flood Warning for...
  Forrest County in southeastern Mississippi...
  Southeastern Lamar County in southeastern Mississippi...

* Until 200 AM CST.

* At 1159 PM CST, Doppler radar indicated thunderstorms producing 
  heavy rain across the warned area. Between 1 and 3 inches of rain 
  have fallen. Additional rainfall amounts of 1 to 2 inches are 
  possible in the warned area. Flash flooding is ongoing or expected 
  to begin shortly.

  HAZARD...Flash flooding caused by thunderstorms.

  SOURCE...Radar.

  IMPACT...Flash flooding of small creeks and streams, urban
           areas, highways, streets and underpasses as well as
           other poor drainage and low-lying areas.

* Some locations that will experience flash flooding include...
  Hattiesburg, Petal, West Hattiesburg, Purvis, Lumberton, Rock 
  Hill, Mclaurin, Pine Ridge, Brooklyn, Sunrise, Maxie and Macedonia.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Turn around, don't drown when encountering flooded roads. Most flood 
deaths occur in vehicles.

&&

LAT...LON 3101 8962 3143 8930 3143 8915 3091 8914
      3091 8934 3100 8934 3101 8935 3101 8942
      3098 8943 3098 8948 3100 8948 3100 8950
      3101 8950 3101 8955 3100 8955

FLASH FLOOD...RADAR INDICATED

$$

EC
2 follow-up statements
809 
WGUS74 KJAN 090652
FFSJAN

Flash Flood Statement
National Weather Service Jackson MS
1252 AM CST Thu Feb 9 2023

MSC035-073-090800-
/O.CON.KJAN.FF.W.0013.000000T0000Z-230209T0800Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
Forrest MS-Lamar MS-
1252 AM CST Thu Feb 9 2023

...FLASH FLOOD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 2 AM CST EARLY THIS 
MORNING FOR FORREST AND SOUTHEASTERN LAMAR COUNTIES...

At 1252 AM CST, Doppler radar indicated additional showers and 
thunderstorms producing heavy rain moving back into the warned area. 
Between 2 and 3 inches of rain have fallen. Additional rainfall 
amounts of 1 to 2 inches are possible in the warned area. Flash 
flooding is ongoing or expected to begin shortly.

HAZARD...Flash flooding caused by thunderstorms.

SOURCE...Radar.

IMPACT...Flash flooding of small creeks and streams, urban areas,
         highways, streets and underpasses as well as other poor
         drainage and low-lying areas.

Some locations that will experience flash flooding include...
  Hattiesburg, Petal, West Hattiesburg, Purvis, Lumberton, Rock 
  Hill, Mclaurin, Pine Ridge, Brooklyn, Sunrise, Maxie and Macedonia.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Turn around, don't drown when encountering flooded roads. Most flood 
deaths occur in vehicles.

&&

LAT...LON 3101 8962 3143 8930 3143 8915 3091 8914
      3091 8934 3100 8934 3101 8935 3101 8942
      3098 8943 3098 8948 3100 8948 3100 8950
      3101 8950 3101 8955 3100 8955

FLASH FLOOD...RADAR INDICATED

$$

EC
066 
WGUS74 KJAN 090730
FFSJAN

Flash Flood Statement
National Weather Service Jackson MS
130 AM CST Thu Feb 9 2023

MSC035-073-090740-
/O.CAN.KJAN.FF.W.0013.000000T0000Z-230209T0800Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
Forrest MS-Lamar MS-
130 AM CST Thu Feb 9 2023

...FLASH FLOOD WARNING IS CANCELLED FOR FORREST AND SOUTHEASTERN 
LAMAR COUNTIES...

The heavy rain has ended. Flooding is no longer expected to pose a 
threat.

LAT...LON 3101 8962 3143 8930 3143 8915 3091 8914
      3091 8934 3100 8934 3101 8935 3101 8942
      3098 8943 3098 8948 3100 8948 3100 8950
      3101 8950 3101 8955 3100 8955

$$

EC

What forecasters said that day

The local office's own words before this flash flood warning went out, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.

NWS Jackson, MS wrote its last area forecast discussion before this flash flood warning went out at Feb 8, 9:58 PM CST, 2 hours 1 minute earlier.

Area forecast discussion, Feb 8, 9:58 PM CST, 2 hours 1 minute before
Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Jackson MS
958 PM CST Wed Feb 8 2023

...New MESOSCALE UPDATE...

.MESOSCALE UPDATE...
Issued at 935 PM CST Wed Feb 8 2023

Mid evening surface analysis had a 1006mb low over southern
Missouri with an associated cold front nearing our northwest most
zones. Mid evening water vapor imagery/RAP analysis showed a
closed low spinning over northeast Oklahoma. This closed low will
track northeast the remainder of the night and drag the cold front
across our area. Ahead of the cold front the potential for
damaging wind gusts and perhaps a tornado or two will remain
possible. Local radars suggest this potential for severe storms
will continue generally along an east of I-55. In addition to
damaging wind gusts, locally heavy rain will continue across much
of the eastern half of the CWA generally along and south of I-20.
This potential for severe storms and locally heavy rain will
continue past mid night over east Mississippi before the threat
shifts east. /22/

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 256 PM CST Wed Feb 8 2023

Tonight and Thursday...

The majority of the active part of the short term forecast will be
in the first half, with storms expected to be ongoing at the start
of the period and continuing overnight.

The synoptic setup is one that is favorable for severe weather as a
compact, negatively tilted shortwave trough is generating a surface
cyclone with a warm sector characterized by deep Gulf of Mexico
moisture. This system will be pushing a cold front across the area
overnight tonight. Ahead of the front, temperatures have warmed into
the 70s F to near 80 F in some locations and this with dewpoints in
the mid and upper 60s F is resulting in surface-based CAPE in the
1500-2000 J/KG range. This instability will wane a bit overnight but
should remain sufficient to support robust thunderstorm development
before storms begin to run into a more marginal thermodynamic
environment as they approach the Mississippi/Alabama border. Deep
layer shear will be increasing overnight and effective bulk shear at
or above 50 kts is likely. In the lowest 1 KM, substantial veering
and increasing winds with height will contribute to 200-300 M^2/S^2
storm relative helicity (SRH) with values locally higher. Overall,
the greatest threat will be the chance for tornadoes and damaging
winds with a chance for some mostly small hail.

While the entirety of the forecast area is at risk for strong to
severe storms today, the area of greatest risk will likely be in
portions of central and western Mississippi and into northeastern
Louisiana. An Enhanced Risk (3/5) for severe weather is in place in
those locations with a Slight Risk (2/5) for much of the remaining
area except far eastern Mississippi where a Marginal Risk (1/5).
Strong to severe storms likely first begin west of the Mississippi
River by mid afternoon and could begin to impact the I-55 corridor
near or shortly after dusk. In eastern Mississippi, the greatest
potential for strong storms will likely be after dark.

Concerning flood potential, areas along and south of I-20 will have
the highest risk. In this area, storm motions may be somewhat slower
than further north, the band or squall may be less meridional than
further north resulting in a greater chance for training, and
greater deep layer moisture will reside. For this reason, a Limited
Risk (1/4) for flash flooding was maintained in the Hazardous
Weather Outlook (HWO) products. Most areas will likely see under 2
inches pf accumulation, but periods of high rainfall rates and
localized higher amounts will pose greatest risk in urban, low-
lying, and poor drainage areas.

Ahead of the front and storms, gusty south winds will also be
possible particularly into portions of the Mississippi River delta
tonight as the pressure gradient strengthens alongside the diurnal
increases in velocity of the low-level jet. Winds may gust up to 40
mph in this areas. Further south to near I-20, gusty winds are also
expected but will likely not be as high, with gusts to 35 mph
possible. Primary hazards with this activity will be the potential
for difficult travel as well as the chance for some larger branches
and smaller trees to be felled.

After the front clears, cooler and drier air will be ushered in
quickly. Given the late night frontal passage, overnight lows won't
have too much time to fall but will still likely range from the
upper 50s F southeast to the middle 40s F northwest. Thursday will
be substantially cooler and dry. Cold air advection will be ongoing
and high temperatures will be 10-15 degrees cooler than today in the
middle 60s F. Winds will initially be breezy in the 10-15 kt range
through early morning but will diminish as the center of the high
pressure area moves overhead head into the evening. /86/

Thursday Night into Wednesday...
The overall progressive/active pattern looks to continue well into
next week. The first feature will be taking shape Fri ngt into Sat
in the form of an upper low with that energy getting closed off, but
maintaining movement as downstream larger scale features keep the
perturbed progressive pattern. Next will be a compact/potent feature
around the 14th followed by another potential large scale system
around the 16/17th.

With the first system Fri ngt/Sat, the diving jet energy will help
it close off in the mid/upper levels. This will pose some challenges
as trying to forecast the exact track of the upper feature is tough
and various guidance indicates this with spacial differences. This
mainly will have impacts on where precip/clouds will exist. I'll add
that this latest run of guidance is offering a greater consensus for
measuring precip in some of the forecast area, thus PoPs have
increased. I feel these should be higher, but uncertainty in the
location of precip is a concern for not going higher at the moment,
thus anticipate higher precip chances with newer forecasts.
Additionally, this cold upper low will offer opportunity for a
dynamic cooling situation. Meaning the column will cool with
increasing precip and rates. The question becomes, will the
underlying environment be sufficiently cold at the start to allow
for any dynamic cooling effects to allow temps to reach 33-34
degrees within precip to support a change over to snow. At this time
confidence is low in that, but I do recognize that models struggle
with such a scenario. With that, not going to mention and mix or
changeover to snow in the official forecast, but this is something
to watch closely.

This closed off feature will have impacts on how the following
system interacts with available moisture. Right now, the trend is
for the cooler and less moist air to push more south into the Gulf,
thus limiting the moisture quality in the return flow to support
deep convection. Guidance has been decently consistent with showing
the potency with this system and how the surface cyclone may
evolve. So, having less quality moisture available for this system
looks to be a limitation and something to allow for potentially less
impacts to our area when it moves through.

There will be another system on the heels of the one just discussed.
This looks to be more of a larger scale system that could bring a
round of convection and heavy precip as more quality moisture will
be close by. This system is just beyond the official forecast
period, but something we will be watching.

The overall temperature forecast will be seasonal, but well below
normal conditions will exist Friday ngt into Sun morning. The area
looks to see a decent freeze Sun morning as well. Look for
moderation for the following work week, but anticipate some
variation due to the Tue system. /CME/

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 720 PM CST Wed Feb 8 2023

Numerous TSRA were noted on radar over the western half of the
area. This activity will spread into east MS TAF sites during the
next several hours. Away from TSRA activity where even lower
flight conditions wl be psbl, a mix of MVFR and VFR cigs along
with a gusty south wind wl prevail until after 07Z when a cold
front will move in from the west and begin to improve conditions.
VFR conditions and a lighter nw wind wl prevail areawide by 14Z.
/22/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Jackson       48  65  43  62 /  90   0  10  10
Meridian      53  67  45  64 / 100  20  10  10
Vicksburg     45  65  42  62 /  70   0  10  10
Hattiesburg   56  67  48  63 /  90  40  20  20
Natchez       46  66  45  62 /  70   0  10  10
Greenville    45  61  42  57 /  70   0   0  10
Greenwood     48  62  42  61 / 100   0   0  10

&&

.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...Wind Advisory until 6 AM CST Thursday for MSZ018-019-025-026-034.

LA...None.
AR...Wind Advisory until 6 AM CST Thursday for ARZ074-075.

&&

LP/CME/22
Hazardous weather outlook, Feb 8, 7:47 PM CST, 4 hours 12 minutes before
Hazardous Weather Outlook...UPDATED
National Weather Service Jackson MS
747 PM CST Wed Feb 8 2023

ARZ074-075-LAZ007>009-MSZ018-029-030-032>034-038-040-041-046-052-
057-058-100200-
Ashley-Chicot-Morehouse-West Carroll-East Carroll-Bolivar-Webster-
Clay-Choctaw-Oktibbeha-Washington-Winston-Issaquena-Sharkey-
Kemper-Lauderdale-Jasper-Clarke-
747 PM CST Wed Feb 8 2023

This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of southeast
Arkansas, northeast Louisiana, central Mississippi, and north
central Mississippi.

.DAY ONE...Tonight and Thursday

SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
THREAT...Slight
TIMING...Tonight

NON-THUNDERSTORM WINDS
THREAT...Limited
TIMING...Tonight

Tonight, severe thunderstorms and tornadoes are possible. Some
thunderstorms could produce damaging winds to 60 mph.

(https://www.weather.gov/images/jan/graphicast/1.png)

Tonight, weak trees and limbs may break and fall due to sustained
winds up to 20 mph and wind gusts around 35 mph. High profile
vehicles could also be affected.

(https://www.weather.gov/images/jan/graphicast/3.png)

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Thursday night through Tuesday

The probability for widespread hazardous weather is low.

.SPOTTER CALL TO ACTION STATEMENT...
The activation of storm spotters, HAM radio operators, and
emergency management personnel in support of severe weather
operations may be needed for portions of the region tonight.

MSZ019-100200-
Sunflower-
747 PM CST Wed Feb 8 2023

This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of northwest
Mississippi.

.DAY ONE...Tonight and Thursday

SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
THREAT...Slight
TIMING...Tonight

NON-THUNDERSTORM WINDS
THREAT...Elevated
TIMING...Tonight

Tonight, severe thunderstorms and tornadoes are possible. Some
thunderstorms could produce damaging winds to 60 mph.

(https://www.weather.gov/images/jan/graphicast/1.png)

Tonight, a few downed trees and power lines are possible due to
sustained winds ranging up to 25 mph and potential for wind gusts
over 40 mph. Travel will also be difficult for those in high
profile vehicles.

(https://www.weather.gov/images/jan/graphicast/3.png)

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Thursday night through Tuesday

The probability for widespread hazardous weather is low.

.SPOTTER CALL TO ACTION STATEMENT...
The activation of storm spotters, HAM radio operators, and
emergency management personnel in support of severe weather
operations may be needed for portions of the region tonight.

MSZ026>028-035>037-042>045-050-051-100200-
Grenada-Carroll-Montgomery-Humphreys-Holmes-Attala-Yazoo-
Madison MS-Leake-Neshoba-Scott-Newton-
747 PM CST Wed Feb 8 2023

This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of central
Mississippi, east central Mississippi, and north central
Mississippi.

.DAY ONE...Tonight and Thursday

SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
THREAT...Enhanced
TIMING...Tonight

NON-THUNDERSTORM WINDS
THREAT...Limited
TIMING...Tonight

Tonight, severe thunderstorms are likely and tornadoes are
possible. Some thunderstorms may produce damaging winds up to
70 mph and small hail.

(https://www.weather.gov/images/jan/graphicast/1.png)

Tonight, weak trees and limbs may break and fall due to sustained
winds up to 20 mph and wind gusts around 35 mph. High profile
vehicles could also be affected.

(https://www.weather.gov/images/jan/graphicast/3.png)

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Thursday night through Tuesday

The probability for widespread hazardous weather is low.

.SPOTTER CALL TO ACTION STATEMENT...
The activation of storm spotters, HAM radio operators, and
emergency management personnel in support of severe weather
operations may be needed for portions of the region tonight.

MSZ031-039-100200-
Lowndes-Noxubee-
747 PM CST Wed Feb 8 2023

This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of east central
Mississippi, and northeast Mississippi.

.DAY ONE...Tonight and Thursday

SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
THREAT...Marginal
TIMING...Tonight

NON-THUNDERSTORM WINDS
THREAT...Limited
TIMING...Tonight

Tonight, isolated severe thunderstorms are possible. Some
thunderstorms could produce damaging wind gusts and hail. A
tornado cannot be ruled out.

(https://www.weather.gov/images/jan/graphicast/1.png)

Tonight, weak trees and limbs may break and fall due to sustained
winds up to 20 mph and wind gusts around 35 mph. High profile
vehicles could also be affected.

(https://www.weather.gov/images/jan/graphicast/3.png)

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Thursday night through Tuesday

The probability for widespread hazardous weather is low.

.SPOTTER CALL TO ACTION STATEMENT...
The activation of storm spotters, HAM radio operators, and
emergency management personnel in support of severe weather
operations may be needed for portions of the region tonight.

LAZ015-016-023>025-100200-
Richland-Madison LA-Franklin LA-Catahoula-Tensas-
747 PM CST Wed Feb 8 2023

This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of northeast
Louisiana.

.DAY ONE...Tonight and Thursday

SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
THREAT...Slight
TIMING...Tonight

FLOODING
THREAT...Limited
TIMING...Tonight

NON-THUNDERSTORM WINDS
THREAT...Limited
TIMING...Tonight

Tonight, severe thunderstorms and tornadoes are possible. Some
thunderstorms could produce damaging winds to 60 mph.

(https://www.weather.gov/images/jan/graphicast/1.png)

Tonight, localized flash flooding is possible, particularly in
low lying and urban areas. Minor river flooding is also possible.

(https://www.weather.gov/images/jan/graphicast/2.png)

Tonight, weak trees and limbs may break and fall due to sustained
winds up to 20 mph and wind gusts around 35 mph. High profile
vehicles could also be affected.

(https://www.weather.gov/images/jan/graphicast/3.png)

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Thursday night through Tuesday

The probability for widespread hazardous weather is low.

.SPOTTER CALL TO ACTION STATEMENT...
The activation of storm spotters, HAM radio operators, and
emergency management personnel in support of severe weather
operations may be needed for portions of the region tonight.

MSZ047-053>056-059-061>065-072-100200-
Warren-Claiborne-Copiah-Simpson-Smith-Jefferson-Franklin MS-
Lincoln-Lawrence-Jefferson Davis-Covington-Marion-
747 PM CST Wed Feb 8 2023

This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of central
Mississippi, south central Mississippi, and west central
Mississippi.

.DAY ONE...Tonight and Thursday

SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
THREAT...Enhanced
TIMING...Tonight

FLOODING
THREAT...Limited
TIMING...Tonight

Tonight, severe thunderstorms are likely and tornadoes are
possible. Some thunderstorms may produce damaging winds up to
70 mph and small hail.

(https://www.weather.gov/images/jan/graphicast/1.png)

Tonight, localized flash flooding is possible, particularly in
low lying and urban areas. Minor river flooding is also possible.

(https://www.weather.gov/images/jan/graphicast/2.png)

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Thursday night through Tuesday

The probability for widespread hazardous weather is low.

.SPOTTER CALL TO ACTION STATEMENT...
The activation of storm spotters, HAM radio operators, and
emergency management personnel in support of severe weather
operations may be needed for portions of the region tonight.

MSZ048-049-100200-
Hinds-Rankin-
747 PM CST Wed Feb 8 2023

This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of central
Mississippi.

.DAY ONE...Tonight and Thursday

SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
THREAT...Enhanced
TIMING...Tonight

FLOODING
THREAT...Limited
TIMING...Tonight

NON-THUNDERSTORM WINDS
THREAT...Limited
TIMING...Tonight

Tonight, severe thunderstorms are likely and tornadoes are
possible. Some thunderstorms may produce damaging winds up to
70 mph and small hail.

(https://www.weather.gov/images/jan/graphicast/1.png)

Tonight, localized flash flooding is possible, particularly in
low lying and urban areas. Minor river flooding is also possible.

(https://www.weather.gov/images/jan/graphicast/2.png)

Tonight, weak trees and limbs may break and fall due to sustained
winds up to 20 mph and wind gusts around 35 mph. High profile
vehicles could also be affected.

(https://www.weather.gov/images/jan/graphicast/3.png)

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Thursday night through Tuesday

The probability for widespread hazardous weather is low.

.SPOTTER CALL TO ACTION STATEMENT...
The activation of storm spotters, HAM radio operators, and
emergency management personnel in support of severe weather
operations may be needed for portions of the region tonight.

LAZ026-MSZ060-066-073-074-100200-
Concordia-Adams-Jones-Lamar-Forrest-
747 PM CST Wed Feb 8 2023

This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of and northeast
Louisiana.

.DAY ONE...Tonight and Thursday

SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
THREAT...Slight
TIMING...Tonight

FLOODING
THREAT...Limited
TIMING...Tonight

Tonight, severe thunderstorms and tornadoes are possible. Some
thunderstorms could produce damaging winds to 60 mph.

(https://www.weather.gov/images/jan/graphicast/1.png)

Tonight, localized flash flooding is possible, particularly in
low lying and urban areas. Minor river flooding is also possible.

(https://www.weather.gov/images/jan/graphicast/2.png)

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Thursday night through Tuesday

The probability for widespread hazardous weather is low.

.SPOTTER CALL TO ACTION STATEMENT...
The activation of storm spotters, HAM radio operators, and
emergency management personnel in support of severe weather
operations may be needed for portions of the region tonight.

MSZ025-100200-
Leflore-
747 PM CST Wed Feb 8 2023

This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of north central
Mississippi.

.DAY ONE...Tonight and Thursday

SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
THREAT...Enhanced
TIMING...Tonight

NON-THUNDERSTORM WINDS
THREAT...Elevated
TIMING...Tonight

Tonight, severe thunderstorms are likely and tornadoes are
possible. Some thunderstorms may produce damaging winds up to
70 mph and small hail.

(https://www.weather.gov/images/jan/graphicast/1.png)

Tonight, a few downed trees and power lines are possible due to
sustained winds ranging up to 25 mph and potential for wind gusts
over 40 mph. Travel will also be difficult for those in high
profile vehicles.

(https://www.weather.gov/images/jan/graphicast/3.png)

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Thursday night through Tuesday

The probability for widespread hazardous weather is low.

.SPOTTER CALL TO ACTION STATEMENT...
The activation of storm spotters, HAM radio operators, and
emergency management personnel in support of severe weather
operations may be needed for portions of the region tonight.

0

&&

...HAZARD LEGEND...

*SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS*
High...Significant severe thunderstorms and tornadoes are
 likely with strong or violent tornadoes possible.
Moderate...Significant severe thunderstorms and tornadoes are
 likely with strong tornadoes possible.
Enhanced...Severe thunderstorms are likely and tornadoes are
 possible.
Slight...Severe thunderstorms and tornadoes are possible.
Marginal...Isolated severe thunderstorms are possible.

*NON-THUNDERSTORM WINDS*
Significant...Scattered downed trees and power lines are likely
 due to sustained winds over 35 mph and potential wind gusts
 greater than 50 mph.
Elevated...A few downed trees and power lines are possible due
 to sustained winds ranging from 25 to 35 mph and potential for
 wind gusts over 40 mph. Travel will also be difficult for those
 in high profile vehicles.
Limited...Weak trees and limbs may break and fall due to
 sustained winds up to 25 mph and wind gusts around 35 mph.
 High profile vehicles could also be affected.

*FLOODING*
Extreme...Widespread and significant flooding is likely.
Significant...Widespread flash flooding is likely
 and significant flooding is possible.
Elevated...Areas of flash flooding likely.
Limited...Localized flash flooding is possible.

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   https://www.youtube.com/user/NWSJacksonMiss

...ADDITIONAL URLS FOR SEVERE WEATHER ISSUES...

Storm Prediction Center (SPC)...
   https://www.spc.noaa.gov/
Meso Analysis...
   https://www.spc.noaa.gov/exper/mesoanalysis/
Day 1 through 3 Outlooks...
   https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/
Storm Reports...
   https://www.spc.noaa.gov/climo/online/
...ADDITIONAL URLS FOR FLOODING ISSUES...

Current Watches and Warnings...
   https://www.weather.gov/jan/safe_HeavyRain

Observed Precipitation Images...
   https://www.weather.gov/jan/precipmaps

River Forecast Center...
   https://www.weather.gov/lmrfc/
Significant River Flood Outlook...
   https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/nationalfloodoutlook/index.html
Day 1 through 3 Excessive Rainfall...
   https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/excess_rain.shtml
Excessive Rainfall Discussion...
   https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/discussions/qpferd.html
Day 1 through 7 QPF...
   https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/qpf2.shtml
QPF Discussion...
   https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/discussions/qpfpfd.html

In the hours before

Local storm report, Feb 8, 9:58 PM CST, 2 hours 1 minute before
PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
958 PM CST WED FEB 8 2023

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0912 PM     TSTM WND DMG     6 NW TERRY              32.17N 90.36W
02/08/2023                   HINDS              MS   TRAINED SPOTTER

            TWO WINDOWS WERE BLOWN OUT OF A HOUSE AND
            DEBRIS WAS BLOWN INTO VEHICLES AND A GARAGE
            DOOR OFF CARROLL DR.

&&

DL
Special weather statement, Feb 8, 10:03 PM CST, 1 hour 56 minutes before
Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Jackson MS
1003 PM CST Wed Feb 8 2023

MSZ056-090445-
Smith MS-
1003 PM CST Wed Feb 8 2023

...A strong thunderstorm will impact portions of southeastern Smith
County through 1045 PM CST...

At 1003 PM CST, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
Mount Olive, or 7 miles east of Magee, moving northeast at 25 mph.

HAZARD...Winds in excess of 40 mph.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects.

Locations impacted include...
Center Ridge and Mize.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

A Tornado Watch remains in effect until 1100 PM CST for central,
southeastern and east central Mississippi.

&&

LAT...LON 3184 8966 3185 8965 3208 8947 3196 8932
      3194 8932 3178 8959 3178 8960
TIME...MOT...LOC 0403Z 225DEG 23KT 3184 8960

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.00 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH

DL
Special weather statement, Feb 8, 10:06 PM CST, 1 hour 53 minutes before
Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Jackson MS
1006 PM CST Wed Feb 8 2023

MSZ036-037-043-044-090445-
Attala MS-Leake MS-Madison MS-Holmes MS-
1006 PM CST Wed Feb 8 2023

...A strong thunderstorm will impact portions of northern Leake,
southeastern Holmes, Attala and northeastern Madison Counties through
1045 PM CST...

At 1005 PM CST, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
Goodman, or near Durant, moving northeast at 60 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 50 mph.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects.

This strong thunderstorm will be near...
  Durant around 1010 PM CST.
  Mcadams around 1015 PM CST.
  Possumneck around 1020 PM CST.
  Hesterville around 1025 PM CST.

Other locations impacted by this storm include Mccool, Ethel, Sallis,
Redwater and West.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

A Tornado Watch remains in effect until 1100 PM CST for central and
north central Mississippi.

&&

LAT...LON 3319 8932 3289 8932 3259 8995 3278 9003
      3283 9002 3284 8999 3288 8997 3292 9008
      3300 9011 3324 8984 3322 8975 3329 8970
      3329 8941
TIME...MOT...LOC 0405Z 225DEG 52KT 3298 8986

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.00 IN
MAX WIND GUST...50 MPH

DB
Local storm report, Feb 8, 10:29 PM CST, 1 hour 30 minutes before
PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
1029 PM CST WED FEB 8 2023

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1010 PM     FLASH FLOOD      1 SW BROOKHAVEN         31.57N 90.46W
02/08/2023                   LINCOLN            MS   TRAINED SPOTTER

            FLOODING REPORTED ALONG US 51 IN BROOKHAVEN
            AND SOME YARDS FLOODED.

&&

DL
Special weather statement, Feb 8, 10:46 PM CST, 1 hour 13 minutes before
Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Jackson MS
1046 PM CST Wed Feb 8 2023

MSZ032-033-038-039-045-046-090545-
Kemper MS-Oktibbeha MS-Neshoba MS-Noxubee MS-Winston MS-Choctaw MS-
1046 PM CST Wed Feb 8 2023

...Strong thunderstorms will impact portions of southeastern Choctaw,
western Noxubee, western Kemper, Oktibbeha, Winston and Neshoba
Counties through 1145 PM CST...

At 1046 PM CST, Doppler radar was tracking strong thunderstorms along
a line extending from near Ackerman to near Prospect. Movement was
northeast at 45 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 50 mph.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects.

Strong thunderstorms will be near...
  Ackerman around 1055 PM CST.
  Bethsaida and House around 1105 PM CST.
  Forestdale and Longview around 1115 PM CST.
  Starkville around 1120 PM CST.
  Bluff Springs around 1125 PM CST.
  Preston around 1130 PM CST.
  Gholson and Muldrow around 1140 PM CST.

Other locations impacted by these storms include Noxapater, Tucker
and Sturgis.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

A Tornado Watch remains in effect until 1100 PM CST for east central
Mississippi.

&&

LAT...LON 3258 8924 3330 8928 3357 8869 3345 8867
      3329 8867 3329 8864 3262 8853
TIME...MOT...LOC 0446Z 232DEG 37KT 3326 8925 3258 8920

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.00 IN
MAX WIND GUST...50 MPH

DB
Special weather statement, Feb 8, 10:59 PM CST, 1 hour before
Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Jackson MS
1059 PM CST Wed Feb 8 2023

MSZ046-051-052-090600-
Kemper MS-Lauderdale MS-Newton MS-
1059 PM CST Wed Feb 8 2023

...Strong thunderstorms will impact portions of eastern Newton,
southern Kemper and Lauderdale Counties through MIDNIGHT CST...

At 1058 PM CST, Doppler radar was tracking strong thunderstorms along
a line extending from near Herbert Springs to 7 miles southwest of
Duffee to 6 miles northeast of Garlandville. Movement was east at 40
mph.

HAZARD...Winds in excess of 40 mph.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects.

Strong thunderstorms will be near...
  Duffee around 1105 PM CST.
  Suqualena and Martin around 1110 PM CST.
  Meridian, Nellieburg and Meehan around 1115 PM CST.
  Prismatic and Savoy around 1120 PM CST.
  Daleville around 1125 PM CST.
  Meridian Station, Marion and Zero around 1130 PM CST.
  Lauderdale, Toomsuba, Tamola and Increase around 1140 PM CST.
  Kewanee around 1145 PM CST.

Other locations impacted by these storms include Chunky.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

A Tornado Watch remains in effect until 1100 PM CST for east central
Mississippi.

&&

LAT...LON 3223 8843 3223 8902 3240 8895 3258 8900
      3258 8892 3260 8891 3263 8838
TIME...MOT...LOC 0458Z 260DEG 35KT 3257 8897 3240 8898 3227 8903

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.00 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH

22

The office that day

Everything else NWS Jackson, MS issued on the same UTC day.

IssuedProductOfficeCountiesLasted
Feb 8, 6:09 PM CSTSpecial Weather StatementJANGrenada36 min
Feb 8, 6:36 PM CSTSpecial Weather StatementJANLeflore24 min
Feb 8, 6:48 PM CSTSpecial Weather StatementJANLawrence42 min
Feb 8, 7:02 PM CSTSpecial Weather StatementJANAdams43 min
Feb 8, 7:13 PM CSTTornado WarningJANJefferson Davis, Lawrence, Marion46 min
Feb 8, 7:24 PM CSTSevere Thunderstorm WarningJANAdams49 min
Feb 8, 7:55 PM CSTFlash Flood WarningJANLawrence, Lincoln2 hr
Feb 8, 7:59 PM CSTSevere Thunderstorm WarningJANClaiborne, Copiah, Franklin, Jefferson, Lincoln61 min
Feb 8, 8:04 PM CSTSpecial Weather StatementJANSimpson41 min
Feb 8, 8:08 PM CSTTornado WarningJANRankin, Simpson26 min
Feb 8, 8:19 PM CSTTornado WarningJANJefferson Davis, Rankin, Simpson, Smith56 min
Feb 8, 8:53 PM CSTSpecial Weather StatementJANCopiah, Lincoln52 min
Feb 8, 9:05 PM CSTFlash Flood WarningJANLincoln2 hr
Feb 8, 9:29 PM CSTSpecial Weather StatementJANCovington46 min
Feb 8, 9:40 PM CSTFlash Flood WarningJANJefferson Davis, Lawrence, Rankin, Simpson2 hr
Feb 8, 9:48 PM CSTSpecial Weather StatementJANLeake, Scott27 min
Feb 8, 9:50 PM CSTSevere Thunderstorm WarningJANNewton, Scott, Smith40 min
Feb 8, 10:03 PM CSTSpecial Weather StatementJANSmith42 min
Feb 8, 10:06 PM CSTSpecial Weather StatementJANAttala39 min
Feb 8, 10:21 PM CSTSevere Thunderstorm WarningJANJasper, Newton, Scott, Smith39 min
Feb 8, 10:46 PM CSTSpecial Weather StatementJANKemper, Neshoba, Oktibbeha, Winston59 min
Feb 8, 10:59 PM CSTSpecial Weather StatementJANLauderdale61 min
Feb 9, 8:03 AM CSTRiver Flood WarningJANNoxubee25 hr
Feb 9, 10:22 AM CSTRiver Flood WarningJANCarroll, Leflore58 hr

Nearby

Flash Flood Warnings in Mississippi, 2023Every flash flood warning in 2023

Sources

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive.