Tornado Warning 14, NWS Wilmington, OH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Wilmington OH
414 PM EST Fri Mar 3 2023

.SYNOPSIS...
A very strong low pressure system will track through the area
this evening and continue off to the east overnight. High
pressure will build in Saturday and persist through the weekend.
Low pressure and a cold front will approach Monday and move
through Monday night.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
Very strong low pressure over southern Indiana will track
northeast across the region late this afternoon and through the
evening, gradually filling. Precipitation associated with
this will continue to pivot northeast. Airmass will be modifying
considerably as this low moves through. Looks like a limited
warm sector will push into northern Kentucky and far southern
Ohio. This will be where the greatest potential for severe
thunderstorms will occur over the next few hours. Strong to
damaging synoptic winds have been observed to occur 1/2 to 1
hour after the convective line moves through. This corresponds
well with mixing into strong low level jet that will translate
across the southern tier of the forecast area. No changes are
planned at this point to the high wind warning.

A strong pressure gradient will occur in the wake of the low
which will bring strong wind gusts across the rest of the
forecast area late today into this evening. Winds areawide will
slowly diminish during the overnight hours. Precipitation
wrapping around the low could mix with snow before ending across
parts of west central Ohio.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
High pressure will build in through the period. So winds will
continue to weaken through Saturday and be light and variable
Saturday night. There is some uncertainty concerning how quickly
low clouds will decrease. Forecast may be a bit on the
optimistic side, but should see increasing amounts of sun in the
afternoon with mainly clear skies Saturday night. Highs will be
in the upper 40s to mid 50s with lows in the lower to mid 30s.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
High pressure will build over the area on Sunday, with highs running
from the low 50s in the north to the low 60s in the south. Monday
will be even warmer, reaching the mid 60s to low 70s as strong south
winds are found ahead of a low pressure system. This low will track
east through the lower Great Lakes Monday, with a cold front
crossing the region in the evening.

High temperatures on Tuesday will be 15-20 degrees colder than
Monday, coming more in line with seasonal normals. High pressure
building  northwest of the area Tuesday will see a northwest-
southeast oriented ridge that lingers through Thursday night.
Northerly winds during this time will have highs on Wed and Thurs
just a degree or two cooler than Tuesday. The ridge lifts northeast
early Friday ahead of low pressure developing in the midsection of
the U.S., which may quickly move east into the Ohio Valley and
result in the next rainfall event.

Later periods of Thurs/Fri have low confidence given a large spread
in model solutions.

&&

.AVIATION /21Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Strong low level winds will persist across the area for the
first part of the period. This will keep low level wind shear at
the terminals until winds veer and start to mix a bit higher. At
that point, winds will become very gusty. These very gusty winds
will continue to veer to the west northwest tonight and then
gradually diminish after 06Z. Gusts will then end after 12Z.

While there could be some breaks in precipitation, showers will
continue to prevail. An intense line of thunderstorms to the
southwest of the area is expected to affect KCVG/KLUK and may
get as far northeast as KILN during the early part of the
period. Once this passes, expect precipitation to diminish
substantially.

IFR ceilings will lift to MVFR once the winds shift to
southerly. There could even be a brief period of VFR. MVFR
ceilings will persist through much of the period. Ceilings will
likely drop to IFR at KDAY and that is not out of the question
as some of the other terminals. Clouds will start to scatter
late in the TAF period.

.OUTLOOK...MVFR ceilings are possible Monday night into Tuesday.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...Flood Watch until 1 AM EST Saturday for OHZ026-034-035-042>046-
     051>056-060>065-070>074-077>082-088.
     Wind Advisory until 4 AM EST Saturday for OHZ026-034-035-
     042>046-051>056-060>065-070>074-077.
     High Wind Warning until 4 AM EST Saturday for OHZ078>082-088.
KY...Flood Watch until 1 AM EST Saturday for KYZ089>100.
     High Wind Warning until 4 AM EST Saturday for KYZ089>100.
IN...Flood Watch until 1 AM EST Saturday for INZ050-058-059-066-
     073>075-080.
     Wind Advisory until 4 AM EST Saturday for INZ050-058-059-066-
     073>075-080.

&&

SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...Franks
AVIATION...

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Wilmington OH
1252 PM EST Fri Mar 3 2023

OHZ026-034-035-042>046-051>056-065-041800-
Hardin-Mercer-Auglaize-Darke-Shelby-Logan-Union OH-Delaware-Miami-
Champaign-Clark-Madison-Franklin OH-Licking-Fairfield-
1252 PM EST Fri Mar 3 2023

...FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT THROUGH LATE TONIGHT...
...WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 4 AM EST SATURDAY...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for Central Ohio and West Central
Ohio.

.DAY ONE...This afternoon and tonight.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Flood Watch.
   Wind Advisory.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Saturday through Thursday.

The probability for widespread hazardous weather is low.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

INZ050-058-059-066-OHZ060>064-070>074-041800-
Wayne-Fayette IN-Union IN-Franklin IN-Preble-Montgomery-Greene-
Fayette OH-Pickaway-Butler-Warren-Clinton-Ross-Hocking-
1252 PM EST Fri Mar 3 2023

...FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT THROUGH LATE TONIGHT...
...WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 4 AM EST SATURDAY...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for East Central Indiana,
Southeast Indiana, Central Ohio, South Central Ohio, Southwest Ohio
and West Central Ohio.

.DAY ONE...This afternoon and tonight.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Flood Watch.
   Wind Advisory.

In addition, there is the potential for severe thunderstorms today.
These storms may produce damaging straight line winds. The greatest
threat for severe thunderstorms is between 3 pm and 7 pm.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Saturday through Thursday.

The probability for widespread hazardous weather is low.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation may be needed.

KYZ089>100-OHZ078>082-088-041800-
Carroll-Gallatin-Boone-Kenton-Campbell-Owen-Grant-Pendleton-Bracken-
Robertson-Mason-Lewis-Clermont-Brown-Highland-Adams-Pike-Scioto-
1252 PM EST Fri Mar 3 2023

...FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT THROUGH LATE TONIGHT...
...HIGH WIND WARNING IN EFFECT UNTIL 4 AM EST SATURDAY...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for Northeast Kentucky, Northern
Kentucky, South Central Ohio and Southwest Ohio.

.DAY ONE...This afternoon and tonight.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Flood Watch.
   High Wind Warning.

In addition, there is the potential for severe thunderstorms today.
These storms may produce damaging straight line winds. Isolated
tornadoes are also possible. The greatest threat for severe
thunderstorms is between 2 pm and 6 pm.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Saturday through Thursday.

Hazardous weather is not expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation may be needed.

INZ073>075-080-OHZ077-041800-
Ripley-Dearborn-Ohio-Switzerland-Hamilton-
1252 PM EST Fri Mar 3 2023

...FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT THROUGH LATE TONIGHT...
...WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 4 AM EST SATURDAY...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for Southeast Indiana and
Southwest Ohio.

.DAY ONE...This afternoon and tonight.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Flood Watch.
   Wind Advisory.

In addition, there is the potential for severe thunderstorms today.
These storms may produce damaging straight line winds. Isolated
tornadoes are also possible. The greatest threat for severe
thunderstorms is between 2 pm and 6 pm.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Saturday through Thursday.

The probability for widespread hazardous weather is low.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation may be needed.

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PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
506 PM EST FRI MAR 3 2023

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0446 PM     NON-TSTM WND GST KDAY DAYTON COX APT     39.90N 84.22W
03/03/2023  M46 MPH          MONTGOMERY         OH   ASOS

&&

JEG

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
507 PM EST FRI MAR 3 2023

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0507 PM     HEAVY RAIN       3 N HUNTSVILLE          40.49N 83.80W
03/03/2023  M1.52 INCH       LOGAN              OH   CO-OP OBSERVER

&&

JEG

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
508 PM EST FRI MAR 3 2023

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0505 PM     NON-TSTM WND GST KYMESO CARROLLTON 2E    38.69N 85.14W
03/03/2023  M49 MPH          CARROLL            KY   MESONET

&&

JEG