Severe Thunderstorm Warning 97, NWS Wilmington, OH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Wilmington OH
302 PM EDT Sun Jul 2 2023

.SYNOPSIS...
Showers and thunderstorms will develop this afternoon with
thunderstorm activity peaking this evening. While scattered
showers and embedded storms will also occur into Monday, there
is less concern for severe storms. After some clearing Monday
evening, more settled weather will set in Tuesday and Wednesday
as high pressure builds in. But showers and thunderstorms will
return as a cold front moves through the area during the latter
part of the week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
Convection firing in areas of 2-2.5k J/kg CAPE with MesoA
showing area of 30-40kt of bulk shear currently over KY lifting
further north into southern Ohio over the next few hours. This
is in addition to DCAPES of 1000-1200 over the same area. The
area with the least confidence of severe storms/possibly a
lesser potential would be for areas north of Dayton, where bulk
shear and instability not as favorable. While storm motion is
fairly progressive, ample moisture will allow storms to produce
intense rainfall rates, so will have to watch for clustering
storms in a localized flood threat.

Initial storm cluster over southeast Indiana/N KY headed into
SW Ohio will be a precursor to a better potential for more
widespread severe storms to push again into SE Indiana/northern
KY beginning about 21z. An area of concern is outflow boundary
interaction especially across far southern Ohio and Northern KY,
which could back the low level flow, creating a potential for
low level rotation. That being said, the main concern is
damaging winds with these storms, especially with ample dry air
aloft and steep low to mid level lapse rates. Large hail also
possible.

Strong/severe storms should exit the area after 02z, with
lingering showers in the overall trough pattern and cloudy
conditions overnight tonight.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
Through the day Monday, lingering showers with some embedded
thunderstorms along the back side of the loose upper level
trough as it exits the region slowly. Best chance for scattered
coverage of showers and some weak thunderstorms will be through
central and south central Ohio, but with isolated showers and a
stray storm further west.

Diminishing coverage of showers for Monday evening, with just
isolated chances mainly in central Ohio through about 02z, with
coverage diminishing in areas to the west by 00z.

Slightly moderated high temperatures near 80 to lower 80s, and
then with partial clearing Monday night, lows in the lower 60s
in the west, but still mid and even upper 60s east with later
clearing.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...

There will be a low chance for showers and thunderstorms Tuesday
through Wednesday as humid and unstable conditions linger under weak
high pressure. Convergence and lift along an approaching front may
produce a better chance for convection on Thursday, followed by a
diminishing threat Friday behind the front. With the boundary
expected to stall south of Ohio, additional showers and
thunderstorms will be possible Saturday and Sunday from a
persistently unstable weather regime.

Near normal highs in the mid and upper 80s are forecast for Tuesday
through Thursday in the warm airmass in place across the Ohio
Valley. Daytime readings may then fall back a few degrees to the
upper 70s to mid 80s from Friday through Sunday as somewhat cooler
air takes hold behind the front.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Lower clouds are beginning to become more scattered as the
region gets into a warm sector ahead of an advancing cold front.
This will be short lived as MVFR ceilings will occur in showers
and storms in the 18-03z timeframe, with lingering showers
afterward. In possible heavy rain, lower MVFR visibilities or
even IFR are possible in the 20-00z timeframe.

Have timed tempo thunderstorms with expectations of convective
models. After the main disturbance pushes through, MVFR ceilings
expected overnight and lingering through 13-16z.

OUTLOOK...Thunderstorms possible Monday afternoon and evening.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...None.
KY...None.
IN...None.

&&

SYNOPSIS...JDR
NEAR TERM...JDR
SHORT TERM...JDR
LONG TERM...Coniglio
AVIATION...JDR

Hazardous Weather Outlook...CORRECTED
National Weather Service Wilmington OH
507 AM EDT Sun Jul 2 2023

INZ050-058-059-OHZ026-034-035-042>046-051>056-060>062-030915-
Wayne-Fayette IN-Union IN-Hardin-Mercer-Auglaize-Darke-Shelby-Logan-
Union OH-Delaware-Miami-Champaign-Clark-Madison-Franklin OH-Licking-
Preble-Montgomery-Greene-
507 AM EDT Sun Jul 2 2023

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for East Central Indiana, Central
Ohio and West Central Ohio.

.DAY ONE...Today and tonight.

More showers and thunderstorms will move across the region,
especially in the afternoon and evening. A few of the storms could be
strong to severe with damaging wind gusts the primary threat. In
addition, some storms could produce heavy rainfall that could cause
localized flooding.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Monday through Saturday.

There is a low probability for widespread hazardous weather.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not anticipated.

INZ066-073>075-080-KYZ089>100-OHZ063>065-070>074-077>082-088-030915-
Franklin IN-Ripley-Dearborn-Ohio-Switzerland-Carroll-Gallatin-Boone-
Kenton-Campbell-Owen-Grant-Pendleton-Bracken-Robertson-Mason-Lewis-
Fayette OH-Pickaway-Fairfield-Butler-Warren-Clinton-Ross-Hocking-
Hamilton-Clermont-Brown-Highland-Adams-Pike-Scioto-
507 AM EDT Sun Jul 2 2023

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for Southeast Indiana, Northeast
Kentucky, Northern Kentucky, Central Ohio, South Central Ohio and
Southwest Ohio.

.DAY ONE...Today and tonight.

More showers and thunderstorms will move across the region,
especially in the afternoon and evening. Some of the storms may be
severe with damaging wind the primary threat. However, isolated
large hail or a tornado cannot be ruled out. In addition, storms will
be capable of producing heavy rainfall that could result in
localized flooding.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Monday through Saturday.

There is a low probability for widespread hazardous weather.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation may be needed this afternoon.

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