Severe Thunderstorm Warning 84, NWS Wilmington, OH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Wilmington OH
302 PM EDT Sun Jul 2 2023

.SYNOPSIS...
Showers and thunderstorms will develop this afternoon with
thunderstorm activity peaking this evening. While scattered
showers and embedded storms will also occur into Monday, there
is less concern for severe storms. After some clearing Monday
evening, more settled weather will set in Tuesday and Wednesday
as high pressure builds in. But showers and thunderstorms will
return as a cold front moves through the area during the latter
part of the week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
Convection firing in areas of 2-2.5k J/kg CAPE with MesoA
showing area of 30-40kt of bulk shear currently over KY lifting
further north into southern Ohio over the next few hours. This
is in addition to DCAPES of 1000-1200 over the same area. The
area with the least confidence of severe storms/possibly a
lesser potential would be for areas north of Dayton, where bulk
shear and instability not as favorable. While storm motion is
fairly progressive, ample moisture will allow storms to produce
intense rainfall rates, so will have to watch for clustering
storms in a localized flood threat.

Initial storm cluster over southeast Indiana/N KY headed into
SW Ohio will be a precursor to a better potential for more
widespread severe storms to push again into SE Indiana/northern
KY beginning about 21z. An area of concern is outflow boundary
interaction especially across far southern Ohio and Northern KY,
which could back the low level flow, creating a potential for
low level rotation. That being said, the main concern is
damaging winds with these storms, especially with ample dry air
aloft and steep low to mid level lapse rates. Large hail also
possible.

Strong/severe storms should exit the area after 02z, with
lingering showers in the overall trough pattern and cloudy
conditions overnight tonight.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
Through the day Monday, lingering showers with some embedded
thunderstorms along the back side of the loose upper level
trough as it exits the region slowly. Best chance for scattered
coverage of showers and some weak thunderstorms will be through
central and south central Ohio, but with isolated showers and a
stray storm further west.

Diminishing coverage of showers for Monday evening, with just
isolated chances mainly in central Ohio through about 02z, with
coverage diminishing in areas to the west by 00z.

Slightly moderated high temperatures near 80 to lower 80s, and
then with partial clearing Monday night, lows in the lower 60s
in the west, but still mid and even upper 60s east with later
clearing.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...

There will be a low chance for showers and thunderstorms Tuesday
through Wednesday as humid and unstable conditions linger under weak
high pressure. Convergence and lift along an approaching front may
produce a better chance for convection on Thursday, followed by a
diminishing threat Friday behind the front. With the boundary
expected to stall south of Ohio, additional showers and
thunderstorms will be possible Saturday and Sunday from a
persistently unstable weather regime.

Near normal highs in the mid and upper 80s are forecast for Tuesday
through Thursday in the warm airmass in place across the Ohio
Valley. Daytime readings may then fall back a few degrees to the
upper 70s to mid 80s from Friday through Sunday as somewhat cooler
air takes hold behind the front.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Lower clouds are beginning to become more scattered as the
region gets into a warm sector ahead of an advancing cold front.
This will be short lived as MVFR ceilings will occur in showers
and storms in the 18-03z timeframe, with lingering showers
afterward. In possible heavy rain, lower MVFR visibilities or
even IFR are possible in the 20-00z timeframe.

Have timed tempo thunderstorms with expectations of convective
models. After the main disturbance pushes through, MVFR ceilings
expected overnight and lingering through 13-16z.

OUTLOOK...Thunderstorms possible Monday afternoon and evening.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...None.
KY...None.
IN...None.

&&

SYNOPSIS...JDR
NEAR TERM...JDR
SHORT TERM...JDR
LONG TERM...Coniglio
AVIATION...JDR

Hazardous Weather Outlook...CORRECTED
National Weather Service Wilmington OH
507 AM EDT Sun Jul 2 2023

INZ050-058-059-OHZ026-034-035-042>046-051>056-060>062-030915-
Wayne-Fayette IN-Union IN-Hardin-Mercer-Auglaize-Darke-Shelby-Logan-
Union OH-Delaware-Miami-Champaign-Clark-Madison-Franklin OH-Licking-
Preble-Montgomery-Greene-
507 AM EDT Sun Jul 2 2023

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for East Central Indiana, Central
Ohio and West Central Ohio.

.DAY ONE...Today and tonight.

More showers and thunderstorms will move across the region,
especially in the afternoon and evening. A few of the storms could be
strong to severe with damaging wind gusts the primary threat. In
addition, some storms could produce heavy rainfall that could cause
localized flooding.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Monday through Saturday.

There is a low probability for widespread hazardous weather.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not anticipated.

INZ066-073>075-080-KYZ089>100-OHZ063>065-070>074-077>082-088-030915-
Franklin IN-Ripley-Dearborn-Ohio-Switzerland-Carroll-Gallatin-Boone-
Kenton-Campbell-Owen-Grant-Pendleton-Bracken-Robertson-Mason-Lewis-
Fayette OH-Pickaway-Fairfield-Butler-Warren-Clinton-Ross-Hocking-
Hamilton-Clermont-Brown-Highland-Adams-Pike-Scioto-
507 AM EDT Sun Jul 2 2023

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for Southeast Indiana, Northeast
Kentucky, Northern Kentucky, Central Ohio, South Central Ohio and
Southwest Ohio.

.DAY ONE...Today and tonight.

More showers and thunderstorms will move across the region,
especially in the afternoon and evening. Some of the storms may be
severe with damaging wind the primary threat. However, isolated
large hail or a tornado cannot be ruled out. In addition, storms will
be capable of producing heavy rainfall that could result in
localized flooding.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Monday through Saturday.

There is a low probability for widespread hazardous weather.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation may be needed this afternoon.

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Wilmington OH
152 PM EDT Sun Jul 2 2023

INZ073-021830-
Ripley IN-
152 PM EDT Sun Jul 2 2023

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT PORTIONS OF RIPLEY COUNTY
THROUGH 230 PM EDT...

At 152 PM EDT, a strong thunderstorm was located 8 miles southwest of
Osgood, moving northeast at 30 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 45 mph and pea size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Hail may cause minor damage to outdoor
         objects.

Locations impacted include...
Versailles, Milan, Osgood, Sunman, Holton, Napoleon, Versailles Lake,
Otter Village, Ballstown, Penntown, New Marion and Interstate 74 at
State Route 101.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a sturdy building.

Residents in these areas should remain alert. If this storm becomes
stronger, then a warning may be needed.

To report hazardous weather conditions, go to our website at
weather.gov/iln and submit your report via social media, when you can
do so safely.

&&

LAT...LON 3916 8544 3928 8519 3928 8507 3905 8511
      3898 8544
TIME...MOT...LOC 1752Z 242DEG 26KT 3907 8542

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.25 IN
MAX WIND GUST...45 MPH

McGinnis

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Wilmington OH
216 PM EDT Sun Jul 2 2023

INZ080-KYZ089-021900-
Switzerland IN-Carroll KY-
216 PM EDT Sun Jul 2 2023

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT PORTIONS OF WESTERN SWITZERLAND
AND CARROLL COUNTIES THROUGH 300 PM EDT...

At 215 PM EDT, a strong thunderstorm was located near Madison, moving
east at 30 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 45 mph and half inch hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Hail may cause minor damage to outdoor
         objects.

Locations impacted include...
Carrollton, Vevay, Pleasant, Fairview, Ghent, Prestonville,
Brooksburg, Center Square, Braytown, Locust, Avonburg, Moorefield,
Allensville, Mount Sterling and Jacksonville.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a sturdy building.

Residents in these areas should remain alert. If this storm becomes
stronger, then a warning may be needed.

A Severe Thunderstorm Watch remains in effect until 900 PM EDT for
southeastern Indiana...and northern Kentucky.

To report hazardous weather conditions, go to our website at
weather.gov/iln and submit your report via social media, when you can
do so safely.

&&

LAT...LON 3874 8526 3873 8524 3870 8522 3869 8520
      3888 8520 3890 8512 3890 8502 3878 8499
      3876 8502 3869 8497 3866 8526 3872 8533
      3874 8533
TIME...MOT...LOC 1815Z 252DEG 25KT 3876 8530

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.50 IN
MAX WIND GUST...45 MPH

McGinnis

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Wilmington OH
217 PM EDT Sun Jul 2 2023

INZ073-074-021900-
Ripley IN-Dearborn IN-
217 PM EDT Sun Jul 2 2023

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT PORTIONS OF SOUTHEASTERN RIPLEY
AND SOUTHWESTERN DEARBORN COUNTIES THROUGH 300 PM EDT...

At 217 PM EDT, a strong thunderstorm was located 10 miles south of
Versailles, moving northeast at 30 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 45 mph and nickel size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Hail may cause minor damage to outdoor
         objects.

Locations impacted include...
Milan, Dillsboro, Moores Hill, Farmers Retreat, Friendship, Cross
Plains, Rexville, Cold Springs, Benham and Olean.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a sturdy building.

A Severe Thunderstorm Watch remains in effect until 900 PM EDT for
southeastern Indiana.

To report hazardous weather conditions, go to our website at
weather.gov/iln and submit your report via social media, when you can
do so safely.

&&

LAT...LON 3914 8511 3899 8497 3900 8500 3898 8500
      3898 8504 3896 8505 3894 8512 3896 8512
      3893 8514 3893 8520 3891 8521 3891 8540
TIME...MOT...LOC 1817Z 238DEG 27KT 3892 8531

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.88 IN
MAX WIND GUST...45 MPH

McGinnis

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Wilmington OH
244 PM EDT Sun Jul 2 2023

INZ075-080-KYZ090-091-095-021930-
Switzerland IN-Ohio IN-Boone KY-Gallatin KY-Grant KY-
244 PM EDT Sun Jul 2 2023

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT PORTIONS OF OHIO, CENTRAL
SWITZERLAND, SOUTHERN BOONE, NORTHWESTERN GRANT AND GALLATIN COUNTIES
THROUGH 330 PM EDT...

At 244 PM EDT, a strong thunderstorm was located near Vevay, moving
east at 30 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 50 mph, penny size hail, and frequent
         cloud-to-ground lightning.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Hail may cause minor damage to outdoor
         objects. Lightning can cause serious injury or death.

Locations impacted include...
Rising Sun, Warsaw, Florence, Glencoe, Patriot, Center Square,
Aberdeen, Ryle, Big Bone Lick, Interstate 71 at US Route 127, Steele
Bottom, Markland, Rabbit Hash, Beaverlick, Quercus Grove, North
Landing, Jacksonville, Egypt Bottom, US Route 42 at State Route 184
and Elliston.

This includes I-71 in Kentucky between mile markers 60 and 72.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a sturdy building.

When thunder roars, go indoors! Do not stay in the open or seek
shelter under trees when lightning threatens.

A Severe Thunderstorm Watch remains in effect until 900 PM EDT for
southeastern Indiana...and northern Kentucky.

To report hazardous weather conditions, go to our website at
weather.gov/iln and submit your report via social media, when you can
do so safely.

&&

LAT...LON 3890 8509 3898 8472 3873 8464 3872 8499
      3873 8500 3876 8502 3876 8503
TIME...MOT...LOC 1844Z 257DEG 25KT 3880 8507

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.75 IN
MAX WIND GUST...50 MPH

McGinnis

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