Severe Thunderstorm Warning 71, NWS Wichita, KS

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wichita KS
636 PM CDT Fri May 12 2023

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Monday night)
Issued at 246 PM CDT Fri May 12 2023

Key Points:

* A Few Storms Are Possible This Afternoon and Evening, Some
  Possibly Severe -- Mainly East of a Line from Cottonwood Falls to
  El Dorado to Arkansas City

* Showers and A Few Storms Expected Saturday and Sunday

* Small Rain Chances Each Day Next Week

This evening through Monday night...

As of 3 PM Friday afternoon, an impressive midlevel low continues to
rotate across western NE. An attendant surface low was positioned
across south central NE with a dryline/Pacific front extending
southeast to near Manhattan and south-southwest from there into
north TX. An expansive cumulus field extends from eastern NE through
eastern OK. To this point, there hasn't been too much agitation
within the cumulus field across KS. As winds behind the
dryline/Pacific front veer to southwest and west, convergence along
the boundary should increase, likely resulting in convective
initiation. The background environment is conditionally favorable
for a few severe storms with mixed-layer CAPE values exceeding 3000
J/kg and effective shear nearing 30 kt. In addition, downdraft CAPE
values are generally around 1200 J/kg across the warm/moist sector.
Summing all of this up, the primary concern with the strongest
updrafts will be large hail up to golf ball size and damaging winds
up to 70 MPH. At this point, thunderstorm development is likely to
remain east of line from Cottonwood Falls to El Dorado to Arkansas
City. Areas to the west of this line are likely to remain dry,
unfortunately.

A few showers and storms may linger into the overnight hours across
far eastern KS as the Pacific front progresses eastward.
Transitioning into Saturday, a compact midlevel wave across northern
Mexico will lift northward across west TX and OK. Scattered showers
and few storms are likely to accompany its approach. The bulk of
rain activity will remain along and south of the OK through the
daytime hours Saturday. Rain chances expand northward Saturday night
into Sunday night as the midlevel wave advances northward across the
High Plains. Limited instability and minimal shear will keep any
severe storm chances to a minimum. Rain coverage will gradually
decrease by Monday evening as the aforementioned midlevel wave
decays across the northern High Plains.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday through Friday)
Issued at 246 PM CDT Fri May 12 2023

Transitioning into Tuesday and beyond, a western ridge axis is
forecast to amplify with northwesterly midlevel flow taking shape
across the central and northern Plains. Weak perturbations
translating through the midlevel flow could provide sufficient
ascent for a few showers/storms each day next week but confidence in
timing/coverage/location of any storms remains low.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Saturday evening)
Issued at 635 PM CDT Fri May 12 2023

Widely scattered convection continues just east of a diffuse dryline
currently over the Flint Hills from KMHK to near KWLD. Convection is
diurnally driven, so not sure how long the convection will last past
sunset. The closest convection may venture towards the KCNU taf
location, so will include a VCTS in for this chance. For now will
not go with a tempo group, for this chance, as most of the
convection stays just NW of KCNU.  Expecting this convection to wane
as we get past sunset.

For the rest of the area, expect VFR conditions with any diurnally
driven cumulus to end as afternoon heating wanes.

Ketcham

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Wichita-KICT    60  86  63  77 /  10  10  40  70
Hutchinson      58  84  61  77 /   0  10  40  50
Newton          59  84  62  77 /  10  10  30  60
ElDorado        60  85  63  79 /  20  10  30  70
Winfield-KWLD   61  86  63  80 /  20  20  50  70
Russell         55  82  57  75 /   0   0  20  50
Great Bend      55  82  58  74 /   0   0  30  50
Salina          58  85  61  78 /  10   0  20  50
McPherson       58  84  61  77 /   0  10  30  50
Coffeyville     65  85  64  83 /  30  20  30  70
Chanute         65  86  65  84 /  30  10  20  70
Iola            64  86  64  84 /  30  10  20  60
Parsons-KPPF    65  85  64  83 /  30  20  20  70

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

SHORT TERM...BMB
LONG TERM...BMB
AVIATION...Ketcham

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Wichita KS
245 PM CDT Fri May 12 2023

KSZ032-033-047>053-067>072-082-083-091>096-098>100-131945-
Russell-Lincoln-Barton-Ellsworth-Saline-Rice-McPherson-Marion-Chase-
Reno-Harvey-Butler-Greenwood-Woodson-Allen-Kingman-Sedgwick-Harper-
Sumner-Cowley-Elk-Wilson-Neosho-Chautauqua-Montgomery-Labette-
245 PM CDT Fri May 12 2023

This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of Central Kansas,
South Central Kansas and Southeast Kansas.

.DAY ONE...This Afternoon and Tonight

A few thunderstorms are possible late this afternoon into the
evening, generally east of a line extending from Cottonwood Falls
to El Dorado to Arkansas City. The strongest storms will be capable
of large hail up to golf ball size and wind gusts up to 70 mph.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Saturday through Thursday

Isolated thunderstorms are possible Saturday across southern
Kansas, with periodic chances across much of central and southern
Kansas Saturday night through Sunday night. While a few strong
storms are possible, the risk for organized severe storms is very
low.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not anticipated this afternoon or tonight.

&&

For a graphical version of this information, see our webpage at:
https://weather.gov/crh/ghwo?sid=ict

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