Flash Flood Warning 1, NWS Wichita, KS

269 
WGUS73 KICT 130651
FFSICT

Flash Flood Statement
National Weather Service Wichita KS
151 AM CDT Sat May 13 2023

KSC073-130701-
/O.EXP.KICT.FF.W.0001.000000T0000Z-230513T0700Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
Greenwood KS-
151 AM CDT Sat May 13 2023

...FLASH FLOOD WARNING WILL EXPIRE AT 2 AM CDT EARLY THIS MORNING 
FOR SOUTHEASTERN GREENWOOD COUNTY...

The heavy rain has ended. Flooding is no longer expected to pose a 
threat. Please continue to heed remaining road closures.

LAT...LON 3761 9617 3761 9635 3774 9628 3783 9622
      3786 9618 3787 9596 3760 9596 3760 9599
      3760 9600 3760 9603 3760 9604 3760 9605
      3760 9607 3761 9612

$$

Jakub

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wichita KS
636 PM CDT Fri May 12 2023

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Monday night)
Issued at 246 PM CDT Fri May 12 2023

Key Points:

* A Few Storms Are Possible This Afternoon and Evening, Some
  Possibly Severe -- Mainly East of a Line from Cottonwood Falls to
  El Dorado to Arkansas City

* Showers and A Few Storms Expected Saturday and Sunday

* Small Rain Chances Each Day Next Week

This evening through Monday night...

As of 3 PM Friday afternoon, an impressive midlevel low continues to
rotate across western NE. An attendant surface low was positioned
across south central NE with a dryline/Pacific front extending
southeast to near Manhattan and south-southwest from there into
north TX. An expansive cumulus field extends from eastern NE through
eastern OK. To this point, there hasn't been too much agitation
within the cumulus field across KS. As winds behind the
dryline/Pacific front veer to southwest and west, convergence along
the boundary should increase, likely resulting in convective
initiation. The background environment is conditionally favorable
for a few severe storms with mixed-layer CAPE values exceeding 3000
J/kg and effective shear nearing 30 kt. In addition, downdraft CAPE
values are generally around 1200 J/kg across the warm/moist sector.
Summing all of this up, the primary concern with the strongest
updrafts will be large hail up to golf ball size and damaging winds
up to 70 MPH. At this point, thunderstorm development is likely to
remain east of line from Cottonwood Falls to El Dorado to Arkansas
City. Areas to the west of this line are likely to remain dry,
unfortunately.

A few showers and storms may linger into the overnight hours across
far eastern KS as the Pacific front progresses eastward.
Transitioning into Saturday, a compact midlevel wave across northern
Mexico will lift northward across west TX and OK. Scattered showers
and few storms are likely to accompany its approach. The bulk of
rain activity will remain along and south of the OK through the
daytime hours Saturday. Rain chances expand northward Saturday night
into Sunday night as the midlevel wave advances northward across the
High Plains. Limited instability and minimal shear will keep any
severe storm chances to a minimum. Rain coverage will gradually
decrease by Monday evening as the aforementioned midlevel wave
decays across the northern High Plains.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday through Friday)
Issued at 246 PM CDT Fri May 12 2023

Transitioning into Tuesday and beyond, a western ridge axis is
forecast to amplify with northwesterly midlevel flow taking shape
across the central and northern Plains. Weak perturbations
translating through the midlevel flow could provide sufficient
ascent for a few showers/storms each day next week but confidence in
timing/coverage/location of any storms remains low.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Saturday evening)
Issued at 635 PM CDT Fri May 12 2023

Widely scattered convection continues just east of a diffuse dryline
currently over the Flint Hills from KMHK to near KWLD. Convection is
diurnally driven, so not sure how long the convection will last past
sunset. The closest convection may venture towards the KCNU taf
location, so will include a VCTS in for this chance. For now will
not go with a tempo group, for this chance, as most of the
convection stays just NW of KCNU.  Expecting this convection to wane
as we get past sunset.

For the rest of the area, expect VFR conditions with any diurnally
driven cumulus to end as afternoon heating wanes.

Ketcham

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Wichita-KICT    60  86  63  77 /  10  10  40  70
Hutchinson      58  84  61  77 /   0  10  40  50
Newton          59  84  62  77 /  10  10  30  60
ElDorado        60  85  63  79 /  20  10  30  70
Winfield-KWLD   61  86  63  80 /  20  20  50  70
Russell         55  82  57  75 /   0   0  20  50
Great Bend      55  82  58  74 /   0   0  30  50
Salina          58  85  61  78 /  10   0  20  50
McPherson       58  84  61  77 /   0  10  30  50
Coffeyville     65  85  64  83 /  30  20  30  70
Chanute         65  86  65  84 /  30  10  20  70
Iola            64  86  64  84 /  30  10  20  60
Parsons-KPPF    65  85  64  83 /  30  20  20  70

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

SHORT TERM...BMB
LONG TERM...BMB
AVIATION...Ketcham

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Wichita KS
245 PM CDT Fri May 12 2023

KSZ032-033-047>053-067>072-082-083-091>096-098>100-131945-
Russell-Lincoln-Barton-Ellsworth-Saline-Rice-McPherson-Marion-Chase-
Reno-Harvey-Butler-Greenwood-Woodson-Allen-Kingman-Sedgwick-Harper-
Sumner-Cowley-Elk-Wilson-Neosho-Chautauqua-Montgomery-Labette-
245 PM CDT Fri May 12 2023

This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of Central Kansas,
South Central Kansas and Southeast Kansas.

.DAY ONE...This Afternoon and Tonight

A few thunderstorms are possible late this afternoon into the
evening, generally east of a line extending from Cottonwood Falls
to El Dorado to Arkansas City. The strongest storms will be capable
of large hail up to golf ball size and wind gusts up to 70 mph.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Saturday through Thursday

Isolated thunderstorms are possible Saturday across southern
Kansas, with periodic chances across much of central and southern
Kansas Saturday night through Sunday night. While a few strong
storms are possible, the risk for organized severe storms is very
low.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not anticipated this afternoon or tonight.

&&

For a graphical version of this information, see our webpage at:
https://weather.gov/crh/ghwo?sid=ict

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Wichita KS
648 PM CDT Fri May 12 2023

KSZ093-098-130015-
Cowley KS-Chautauqua KS-
648 PM CDT Fri May 12 2023

...A strong thunderstorm will impact portions of southeastern Cowley
and western Chautauqua Counties through 715 PM CDT...

At 648 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
Cedar Vale, moving northeast at 35 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 50 mph and half inch hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor damage to outdoor objects is
         possible.

Locations impacted include...
Cedar Vale.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

This storm may intensify, so be certain to monitor local radio
stations and available television stations for additional information
and possible warnings from the National Weather Service.

A Severe Thunderstorm Watch remains in effect until 1100 PM CDT for
south central and southeastern Kansas.

&&

LAT...LON 3700 9678 3727 9662 3726 9611 3700 9643
TIME...MOT...LOC 2348Z 218DEG 28KT 3704 9655

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.50 IN
MAX WIND GUST...50 MPH

MCGUIRE

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
742 PM CDT FRI MAY 12 2023

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0740 PM     HAIL             CLIMAX                  37.72N 96.22W
05/12/2023  M0.88 INCH       GREENWOOD          KS   LAW ENFORCEMENT

&&

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
743 PM CDT FRI MAY 12 2023

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0742 PM     HAIL             CLIMAX                  37.72N 96.22W
05/12/2023  M1.00 INCH       GREENWOOD          KS   LAW ENFORCEMENT

&&

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
744 PM CDT FRI MAY 12 2023

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0743 PM     HAIL             1 S CLIMAX              37.71N 96.22W
05/12/2023  E1.00 INCH       GREENWOOD          KS   FIRE DEPT/RESCUE

&&

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Wichita KS
744 PM CDT Fri May 12 2023

KSZ093-094-130130-
Cowley KS-Elk KS-
744 PM CDT Fri May 12 2023

...A strong thunderstorm will impact portions of Elk and northeastern
Cowley Counties through 830 PM CDT...

At 743 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
Grenola, or 12 miles north of Cedar Vale, moving northeast at 20 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 50 mph and half inch hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor damage to outdoor objects is
         possible.

Locations impacted include...
Howard, Moline, Grenola and Cambridge.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

This storm may intensify, so be certain to monitor local radio
stations and available television stations for additional information
and possible warnings from the National Weather Service.

A Severe Thunderstorm Watch remains in effect until 1100 PM CDT for
south central and southeastern Kansas.

&&

LAT...LON 3726 9673 3748 9660 3748 9652 3761 9652
      3760 9603 3730 9634 3730 9652 3724 9653
TIME...MOT...LOC 0043Z 210DEG 17KT 3728 9649

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.50 IN
MAX WIND GUST...50 MPH

MCGUIRE

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Wichita KS
747 PM CDT Fri May 12 2023

KSZ069-093-094-130115-
Butler KS-Cowley KS-Elk KS-
747 PM CDT Fri May 12 2023

...A strong thunderstorm will impact portions of northwestern Elk,
northeastern Cowley and southeastern Butler Counties through 815 PM
CDT...

At 747 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
Latham, or 16 miles southeast of Leon, moving northeast at 20 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 50 mph and nickel size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor damage to outdoor objects is
         possible.

Locations impacted include...
Latham.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

This storm may intensify, so be certain to monitor local radio
stations and available television stations for additional information
and possible warnings from the National Weather Service.

A Severe Thunderstorm Watch remains in effect until 1100 PM CDT for
south central and southeastern Kansas.

&&

LAT...LON 3744 9673 3771 9672 3763 9653 3761 9652
      3761 9648 3758 9641 3742 9656
TIME...MOT...LOC 0047Z 210DEG 17KT 3749 9662

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.88 IN
MAX WIND GUST...50 MPH

MCGUIRE