Severe Thunderstorm Warning 52, NWS Wichita, KS

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wichita KS
225 PM CDT Tue May 9 2023

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Friday night)
Issued at 221 PM CDT Tue May 9 2023

Key Points:

* Severe Storms Continue into the Evening

* Scattered Storms Possible Wednesday, Once Again

* Storms Expected Thursday, Some Likely Severe

This afternoon through Friday night...

As of 215pm this afternoon, a cluster of thunderstorms with embedded
supercells continue to progress east and southeast across portions
of central and north central KS. The environment east and southeast
of these thunderstorms remains very favorable for storm maintenance
with MLCAPE in excess of 2500 J/kg with sufficient veering with
height in 35-45 kt of effective shear. Bottom-line with
these storms, large hail in excess of golfball size and wind gusts
to 80 mph will remain possible with this complex through the
afternoon.

Further south and west, an outflow boundary, spawn by the ongoing
storms, continues to slowly move southward with its current location
from near Ness City to just north of Great Bend. This outflow
boundary intersects a dryline near Ness City. Latest surface
analysis reveals a plume of upper 60 to low 70 dew points streaming
northwestward towards this pseudo-triple-point area. With the
overall coverage of storms decreasing within the western flank of
ongoing convection, would expect this zone from Great Bend to
Jetmore to Ness City to become quite favorable for additional
supercell development later this afternoon. Right moving supercell
storm motion would favor a due-east storm motion and parallel to the
boundary. Existing low-level vorticity along boundary combined with
increasing low-level instability would suggest an increasing tornado
threat as the afternoon progresses. This trend is supported by the
latest WoFs and SSCRAM depictions. Assuming the secondary supercells
develop, eventual upscale growth is possible with a push
southeastward within the greatest low-level theta-e.

By Wednesday, the ridge axis will slowly begin to slide eastward.
Forecast soundings from the ECMWF, GFS, and NAM reveal minimal MLCIN
by mid-afternoon. This should foster scattered thunderstorm
development. Effective shear values less than 30 kt suggest pulse-
type convection is probable. Increasing WAA and a remnant tropical
wave from the Gulf of Mexico Wednesday night could yield additional
storms overnight.

The latest suite of 7am model guidance continues to suggest another
favorable setup for severe storms Thursday afternoon into Thursday
evening. A strong midlevel trough is progged to eject into the
Plains. A triple point will develop across west-central KS with a
northwest to southeast orientated dryline extending into portions
of south central KS. An upper level jet is progged to eject into
central and western KS during the afternoon and early evening
hours with a large component of this jet orthogonal to the
dryline. This would support a mostly-discrete supercell setup. Any
supercell will be capable of large to very large hail and
damaging winds. Any storm that remains discrete towards 7pm will
encounter increasing low-level shear and subsequent tornado
potential.

Additional rain chances are possible Friday into Friday night as the
aforementioned midlevel low slowly progresses north and east.

.LONG TERM...(Saturday through Tuesday)
Issued at 221 PM CDT Tue May 9 2023

The aforementioned midlevel trough will become cutoff and slowly
weaken across the Plains into next week. This could bring additional
rain chances Friday and Saturday morning. A secondary, southern
stream, cutoff low across west TX may continue rain chances into
Sunday. A dry stretch is likely to begin early next week as midlevel
ridging amplifies across the western CONUS.
&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Wednesday afternoon)
Issued at 1241 PM CDT Tue May 9 2023

A line of thunderstorms will continue to push southeast through
the afternoon hours. The highest confidence for air field impact
is RSL, SLN, HUT, and ICT, and have introduced TEMPO at each of
those airports. Confidence is lower at the other sites and will
maintain VCTS with the most likely timeframe. Additional
development is possible towards 00Z across central KS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Wichita-KICT    64  84  64  79 /  50  20  30  80
Hutchinson      62  85  62  79 /  60  20  30  70
Newton          63  84  63  79 /  50  20  30  70
ElDorado        63  83  63  78 /  40  20  40  80
Winfield-KWLD   64  84  63  79 /  40  20  40  70
Russell         60  85  60  79 /  60  20  50  80
Great Bend      59  85  60  78 /  60  20  40  70
Salina          62  86  63  81 /  50  20  40  80
McPherson       62  85  62  79 /  50  20  40  70
Coffeyville     64  84  64  78 /  30  30  40  70
Chanute         63  84  64  79 /  40  30  40  70
Iola            62  84  63  78 /  50  30  40  70
Parsons-KPPF    64  84  64  79 /  40  30  40  70

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

SHORT TERM...BMB
LONG TERM...BMB
AVIATION...BMB

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Wichita KS
1130 AM CDT Tue May 9 2023

KSZ032-033-047>053-067>072-082-083-091>096-098>100-100945-
Russell-Lincoln-Barton-Ellsworth-Saline-Rice-McPherson-Marion-Chase-
Reno-Harvey-Butler-Greenwood-Woodson-Allen-Kingman-Sedgwick-Harper-
Sumner-Cowley-Elk-Wilson-Neosho-Chautauqua-Montgomery-Labette-
1130 AM CDT Tue May 9 2023

This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of Central Kansas,
South Central Kansas and Southeast Kansas.

.DAY ONE...This Afternoon and Tonight

Scattered storms over northern Kansas will develop southward
impacting much of the area this afternoon. The strongest storms may
be capable of producing hail up to tennis ball size and damaging
winds around 80 mph. A brief tornado is also possible. Some of this
activity may linger into the evening hours.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Wednesday through Monday

Scattered storms are expected Wednesday night, especially across
eastern Kansas. Severe storms are not expected with this activity.

Storms will be possible late Thursday afternoon into Thursday
evening, especially for locations along and west of Interstate 135.
Severe storms will be possible with this activity.

Periodic hit or miss thunderstorms are possible for Friday night
through Monday. While a few strong storms cannot be ruled out, we
are not looking for organized severe storms through this time
period.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not anticipated today or tonight.

&&

For a graphical version of this information, see our webpage at:
https://weather.gov/crh/ghwo?sid=ict

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Wichita KS
228 PM CDT Tue May 9 2023

KSZ052-092000-
Marion KS-
228 PM CDT Tue May 9 2023

...A strong thunderstorm will impact portions of northeastern Marion
County through 300 PM CDT...

At 228 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm over
Ramona, or 10 miles southwest of Herington, moving southeast at 40
mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 50 mph and pea size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor damage to outdoor objects is
         possible.

Locations impacted include...
Lincolnville, Ramona, Durham, Tampa, Lost Springs, Pilsen and Marion
Lake.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

A Severe Thunderstorm Watch remains in effect until 600 PM CDT for
central and east central Kansas.

&&

LAT...LON 3852 9693 3852 9682 3835 9682 3847 9725
      3861 9721 3861 9693
TIME...MOT...LOC 1928Z 294DEG 35KT 3856 9707

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.25 IN
MAX WIND GUST...50 MPH

BUTLER

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
240 PM CDT TUE MAY 9 2023

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0231 PM     HAIL             CLAFLIN                 38.52N 98.54W
05/09/2023  M0.75 INCH       BARTON             KS   FIRE DEPT/RESCUE

            PEA TO PENNY SIZED HAIL REPORTED. A WIND
            GUST OF 48 MPH WAS REPORTED AS WELL.

&&

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