Severe Thunderstorm Warning 46, NWS Wichita, KS

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wichita KS
642 AM CDT Tue May 9 2023

...Updated Aviation Discussion...

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Thursday night)
Issued at 317 AM CDT Tue May 9 2023

Water vapor imagery currently shows an upper low spinning over the
Northern Intermountain with some weak upper ridging over the
Central Plains. There is also an MCV/upper impulse down across
south central TX.  At the surface, have a stationary front
extending from Central MO through Southeast KS and into Western
OK.

A few storms have formed near or just north of the front over
southeast KS as low level jet continues to ramp up. Feel that
this activity at a minimum will last at least a couple hours. We
should also see convection develop over NW KS/SW Nebraska near or
just after sunrise. This will also be due to impressive moisture
transport in the 850-700mb layer as low level jet continues to
increase. Any activity that develops in this area will track east
and southeast through the day affecting mostly northern KS and
working more south as the day progresses. Will be plenty of
instability to make up for fairly limited deep layer shear. So
severe storms with large hail and damaging winds will be possible
with any of the storms that develop from this morning on.

While confidence is high that an MCS will develop over NW/north
Central KS today, confidence is much lower with regards to storms
developing out over southwest KS along the dryline. Even if they
would develop along the dryline, the convection wouldn't get into
the forecast area until after 00z. For tonight, will hold onto the
higher pops for the evening hours with a general decrease after
06z with the thinking any MCS that develops will be sinking south
out of the forecast area after midnight.

By 12z Wed, there is good model agreement in a shortwave trough
digging across the Desert Southwest and at the same time the
MCV/upper impulse will be lifting into northeast TX. So during the
day Wed feel the better storm chances will be west of the forecast
area tied to the shortwave and also southeast of the area as the
cutoff upper impulse lifts over eastern OK. Shower and storm
chances will then ramp up Wed night, especially over eastern KS as
the upper wave slides through.

For Thu, upper low will be lifting across northeast CO with a
dryline setting up across the western flank of our CWA by the
afternoon hours. With the better upper dynamics well north of our
area, feel that if storms develop on the dryline, they maybe
fairly isolated. However, instability and shear profiles would
easily support severe storms for anything that comes off the
dryline Thu afternoon and evening.

.LONG TERM...(Friday through Monday)
Issued at 317 AM CDT Tue May 9 2023

Upper low will be lifting into western Nebraska and SD on Fri
with the bulk of the forecast area expected to be dry during the
day. Beyond Fri, confidence really drops off, especially with
regards to shower/storm chances. Broad upper trough is expected to
persist across the Rockies down through the Baja region. A series
of upper impulses will rotate through this trough and if the GFS
is correct, one of them will bring rain to our area on Sat/Sun.
However, the ECMWF holds upper ridging further west and keeps the
better precip chances further to our southwest.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Wednesday morning)
Issued at 618 AM CDT Tue May 9 2023

An active day today is expected for central, south-central, and
southeast Kansas today. Main uncertainty is timing of storms
through afternoon and evening hours today.

As of 1130Z, a broken line of scattered showers and isolated
thunderstorms extends from KSLN to about 40 miles north of KCNU.
These should linger through 14Z this morning, and are expected to
dissipate thereafter. Then, attention turns toward a complex of
strong to severe thunderstorms entering into central Kansas (KRSL,
KGBD, KSLN) potentially as early as 17Z, but most likely after
21Z. Winds in excess of 60 knots and hail up to golf balls is
possible with the strongest storms. This complex of storms may
pass to the east of KHUT and KICT, but should they impact these
sites, arrival time appears to be around 23Z to 01Z. KCNU should
also see the arrival of this complex of storms around 23Z to 01Z.
Thunder will likely linger at each site for a couple of hours
after the arrival of the MCS, and then gradually clear out
thereafter. Stay tuned for adjustments to TAFs throughout the day.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Wichita-KICT    85  64  83  64 /  30  40  20  30
Hutchinson      86  62  84  62 /  40  40  20  30
Newton          84  63  83  63 /  30  50  20  30
ElDorado        83  63  82  63 /  30  40  20  40
Winfield-KWLD   86  64  83  63 /  20  40  20  30
Russell         86  60  85  60 /  40  50  20  50
Great Bend      86  59  85  60 /  40  40  20  40
Salina          84  62  85  63 /  40  50  20  40
McPherson       84  62  84  62 /  40  50  20  40
Coffeyville     85  64  82  64 /  20  30  30  40
Chanute         82  63  83  64 /  30  40  30  30
Iola            82  62  83  63 /  30  40  30  40
Parsons-KPPF    84  64  82  64 /  20  30  30  40

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

SHORT TERM...RBL
LONG TERM...RBL
AVIATION...JC

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Wichita KS
1130 AM CDT Tue May 9 2023

KSZ032-033-047>053-067>072-082-083-091>096-098>100-100945-
Russell-Lincoln-Barton-Ellsworth-Saline-Rice-McPherson-Marion-Chase-
Reno-Harvey-Butler-Greenwood-Woodson-Allen-Kingman-Sedgwick-Harper-
Sumner-Cowley-Elk-Wilson-Neosho-Chautauqua-Montgomery-Labette-
1130 AM CDT Tue May 9 2023

This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of Central Kansas,
South Central Kansas and Southeast Kansas.

.DAY ONE...This Afternoon and Tonight

Scattered storms over northern Kansas will develop southward
impacting much of the area this afternoon. The strongest storms may
be capable of producing hail up to tennis ball size and damaging
winds around 80 mph. A brief tornado is also possible. Some of this
activity may linger into the evening hours.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Wednesday through Monday

Scattered storms are expected Wednesday night, especially across
eastern Kansas. Severe storms are not expected with this activity.

Storms will be possible late Thursday afternoon into Thursday
evening, especially for locations along and west of Interstate 135.
Severe storms will be possible with this activity.

Periodic hit or miss thunderstorms are possible for Friday night
through Monday. While a few strong storms cannot be ruled out, we
are not looking for organized severe storms through this time
period.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not anticipated today or tonight.

&&

For a graphical version of this information, see our webpage at:
https://weather.gov/crh/ghwo?sid=ict

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
1202 PM CDT TUE MAY 9 2023

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1202 PM     TSTM WND GST     5 W PARADISE            39.11N 99.02W
05/09/2023  E65 MPH          RUSSELL            KS   TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

METZGER

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