Severe Thunderstorm Warning 40, NWS Wichita, KS

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wichita KS
621 PM CDT Wed Apr 19 2023

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Saturday night)
Issued at 319 PM CDT Wed Apr 19 2023

Water vapor imagery shows an upper low situated over eastern MT
with a trough and associated vort lobe extending down into the
Central/Southern Rockies. At the surface, cold front extends from
Eastern Nebraska to near Great Bend and finally into far
Southwest KS. Meanwhile, dryline extends from south of KHUT down
into Western OK.

Complex setup for this evening as the upper low remains almost
stationary but an upper jet and piece of energy move out of the
Central Rockies and into KS/OK. Confidence remain high that the
dryline/cold front will retreat west as surface low intensifies
over southwest KS late this afternoon and early evening. Main
question still remains if storms can develop early this evening
along the dryline/cold front as it retreats. Currently think the
most likely area for development will be over northeast KS which
will be closer to good upper diffluence due to being closer to
the right entrance region of an upper jet over the
central/northern Plains. Another area to keep an eye on would be
further south over OK where deeper moisture and slightly better
convergence will be situated as winds back this evening. There's
no question that if a storm can develop early this evening, all
modes of severe weather would be possible, with tor potential
increasing as low level jet continues to increase this evening.

Confidence is much higher with storm development tonight as the
cold front surges south and intersects the dryline over northeast
KS and tries to unzip to the southwest. The tough question will
be how far south and southwest do storms make it overnight. Trends
lately have been to limit the southward extent which seems to be
the theme so far this spring. Large hail and downburst winds will
be common with any storms that unzip down the line tonight.

Did go ahead and expand the wind advisory for tonight as the
dryline/cold front look to lift a bit further north and to also
account for strong north winds getting into central KS behind the
front.

Cold front and associated storms will be making their way through
Southeast KS Thu morning with cooler air spilling into the
remainder of the area. By Thu evening, the upper low will be
moving into the Upper Mississippi Valley with one last vort max
moving across the Southern Plains. This will bring west winds and
good downslope conditions Fri that will allow us to reach our full
heating potential as we climb into the mid and upper 60s. Still
looks to be some frost potential Fri morning across central KS we
we fall into the lower 30s and winds go light.

.LONG TERM...(Saturday through Wednesday)
Issued at 319 PM CDT Wed Apr 19 2023

Still good model agreement in a secondary surge of cold air
starting Sat morning across the forecast area as the upper low
moves off into the Great Lakes region. Still looks like freezing
temps will be a good bet for both Sat and Sun morning, especially
across central KS. So would not be surprised if freeze warnings
are eventually needed in these locations. Confidence remain high
that below normal temps will remain in place for both Sun and Mon
with highs each day around 10 degrees below seasonal normals.

Both ECMWF and GFS are hinting at some rainfall potential for Mon
night into Tue as shortwave energy digs across the Great Basin
resulting in increasing moisture transport across the Plains.
There are some fairly significant differences between the GFS and
ECMWF on the track of the shortwave so confidence remains fairly
low at this time.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Thursday evening)
Issued at 622 PM CDT Wed Apr 19 2023

Strong to severe convection possible along a cold front tonight as
it moves across central Kansas and into southeast Kansas toward
dawn. Strong south winds and low level wind shear away from the
convection with strong northwest winds behind the frontal passage
later tonight into early Thursday. Patchy MVFR cigs possible,
especially in and near convection tonight and lower vsbys in rain.

KED

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 319 PM CDT Wed Apr 19 2023

Very high fire danger will be in place Thu across parts of south
central and central KS.

Winds are expected to flip around to the northwest on Thursday
behind the cold front but will remain quite gusty. We are looking
for sustained speeds in the 15 to 25 mph range with gusts to
30-35 mph. Afternoon RH's are anticipated to be around 15% west of
I-135 Thursday to around 30% over southeast KS. Outdoor burning
is not recommended on Thu afternoon.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Wichita-KICT    54  71  42  65 /  30   0  10  10
Hutchinson      50  69  40  64 /  30   0  10   0
Newton          53  71  41  64 /  40   0  10  10
ElDorado        55  71  43  64 /  40  10  10  10
Winfield-KWLD   56  72  44  67 /  30  10  10  10
Russell         45  66  34  62 /  30   0  10   0
Great Bend      45  67  36  63 /  30   0  10   0
Salina          49  68  36  64 /  50   0  10   0
McPherson       50  69  39  62 /  40   0  10   0
Coffeyville     60  72  45  67 /  30  40  10  10
Chanute         59  71  45  65 /  40  40  10  10
Iola            59  71  45  64 /  50  40  10  10
Parsons-KPPF    60  72  45  66 /  30  40  10  10

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Wind Advisory until 7 AM CDT Thursday for KSZ032-033-047>053-
067>072-082-083-091>096-098>100.

&&

SHORT TERM...RBL
LONG TERM...RBL
AVIATION...KED
FIRE WEATHER...RBL

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Wichita KS
1035 PM CDT Wed Apr 19 2023

KSZ032-033-047>053-067>072-082-083-091>096-098>100-210345-
Russell-Lincoln-Barton-Ellsworth-Saline-Rice-McPherson-Marion-Chase-
Reno-Harvey-Butler-Greenwood-Woodson-Allen-Kingman-Sedgwick-Harper-
Sumner-Cowley-Elk-Wilson-Neosho-Chautauqua-Montgomery-Labette-
1035 PM CDT Wed Apr 19 2023

This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of Central Kansas,
South Central Kansas and Southeast Kansas.

.DAY ONE...Tonight

There is a risk for strong to severe thunderstorms as a strong cold
front moves eastward across the area. The main threats the rest of
the night will be nickel to quarter size hail and 55 to 65 mph wind
gusts.

Strong and gusty south to southeast winds will continue ahead of a
cold front with a shift to a strong northwest wind behind the front.
A wind advisory is in effect for the entire area with a high wind
warning for Russell and Barton counties behind the front late
tonight. The strong winds will also result in very high grassland
fire danger in rain-free areas overnight.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Thursday through Tuesday

A few thunderstorms may linger through Thursday morning across
southeast Kansas. The risk for severe storms appears low.

Very high fire danger is possible Thursday and Friday afternoons
across parts of central and south central Kansas.

Freezing temperatures are possible early Saturday morning across
central Kansas and portions of southeast and central Kansas early
Sunday morning.

Periodic storm chances exist Monday and Tuesday next week. Strong
to severe storms are not expected with this activity.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not anticipated tonight.

&&

For a graphical version of this information, see our webpage at:
https://weather.gov/crh/ghwo?sid=ict

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
1159 PM CDT WED APR 19 2023

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1116 PM     NON-TSTM WND GST COFFEYVILLE AIRPORT     37.10N 95.57W
04/19/2023  M68 MPH          MONTGOMERY         KS   ASOS

&&

LH

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Wichita KS
1159 PM CDT Wed Apr 19 2023

KSZ094-095-098>100-200530-
Montgomery KS-Wilson KS-Labette KS-Chautauqua KS-Elk KS-
1159 PM CDT Wed Apr 19 2023

...Strong thunderstorms will impact portions of southeastern Elk,
Wilson, southwestern Labette, Montgomery and eastern Chautauqua
Counties through 1230 AM CDT...

At 1159 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking strong thunderstorms along
a line extending from 7 miles south of Longton to Caney. Movement was
northeast at 45 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts of 50 to 55 mph and penny size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor damage to outdoor objects is
         possible.

Locations impacted include...
Coffeyville, Independence, Neodesha, Fredonia, Cherryvale, Caney,
Sedan, Dearing, Altoona, Longton, Elk City, Tyro, Peru, Liberty, Elk
Falls, Havana, Bolton, Sycamore, Niotaze and Benedict.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

A Severe Thunderstorm Watch remains in effect until 700 AM CDT for
southeastern Kansas.

&&

LAT...LON 3734 9631 3769 9574 3706 9538 3700 9564
      3700 9610
TIME...MOT...LOC 0459Z 245DEG 39KT 3727 9608 3702 9596

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.75 IN
MAX WIND GUST...55 MPH

CRW

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