Severe Thunderstorm Warning 225, NWS Wichita, KS

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wichita KS
202 AM CDT Wed Aug 9 2023

Forecast Highlights:

* Severe Storms early this morning

* Heat looks to return on Friday with heat indices possibly
  approaching 105 in the afternoon

* A couple rounds of storms look to affect the region during the
  Friday night through Monday period

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Friday night)
Issued at 200 AM CDT Wed Aug 9 2023

Current early morning satellite water vapor imagery shows the
healthy upper level weather system over Wyoming/Colorado moving
eastward. Storms are beginning to develop into a larger complex of
storms over western Kansas. This complex of storms is expected to
gain momentum and grow upscale as it moves eastward across central
Kansas. In addition we could see another area of storms develop over
southern Kansas ahead of this complex where low level jet focus is
increasing. The two areas of storms will merge and continue a
east/southeast movement with damaging to significant damaging winds
likely. The convection will linger over eastern Kansas this morning
then shift east into Missouri by this afternoon, as the upper level
system tracks eastward with associated cold front pushing southward
across Kansas today. A dry weather pattern looks to be on tap for
Thursday with surface high pressure over the region. Models do show
a signal for some mid-level warm advection Thursday night maybe
generating more elevated convection, across far southern Kansas with
better chances for Oklahoma.

Heading into Friday the heat looks to increase for Kansas where heat
indices could reach possible advisory levels of 105 degrees. Yet
another signal for night-time storms could affect the region Friday
night.

.LONG TERM...(Saturday through Tuesday)
Issued at 200 AM CDT Wed Aug 9 2023

Upper level flow will be more west/northwest for the weekend with
models showing a couple embedded waves migrating across the central
plains. This looks to induce some mid-level warm advection which
would give way to thunderstorm chances. Meanwhile heading into early
next week the upper level flow becomes more northwest flow
orientated with surface high pressure building over Kansas. The mid-
level baroclinic zone becomes more north to south aligned by Monday,
and a signal for warm advection across it could spark off another
round of storms Monday night.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Wednesday night)
Issued at 1226 AM CDT Wed Aug 9 2023

We are still expecting scattered to numerous thunderstorms to
impact the region overnight into Wednesday morning from west to
east, as an upper shortwave approaches from the west, interacting
with increasing low to mid level warm/moist advection. Activity
has increased eastward over western Kansas the past few hours
based on regional radar trends. Degree of instability combined
with unseasonably strong deep layer effective shear will support
strong to severe storms, with damaging winds, large hail, and
locally heavy rainfall the primary concerns. Included prevailing
VCTS and TEMPO TSRA at all sites overnight into early Wednesday
morning.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Wichita-KICT    84  65  90  70 /  50  10   0  20
Hutchinson      83  63  90  69 /  50  10   0  10
Newton          83  64  90  70 /  60  10   0  10
ElDorado        84  64  89  69 /  60  10   0  10
Winfield-KWLD   86  65  89  70 /  40  10   0  20
Russell         82  62  90  68 /  30   0   0  20
Great Bend      82  62  88  68 /  40   0   0  20
Salina          82  64  90  70 /  80  10   0  10
McPherson       82  63  90  69 /  60  10   0  10
Coffeyville     87  66  90  69 /  80  10   0  10
Chanute         85  65  88  67 /  80  10   0  10
Iola            84  64  86  66 /  90  10   0  10
Parsons-KPPF    87  65  90  68 /  80  10   0  10

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

SHORT TERM...CDJ
LONG TERM...CDJ
AVIATION...ADK

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Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Wichita KS
132 AM CDT Wed Aug 9 2023

KSZ033-090700-
Lincoln KS-
132 AM CDT Wed Aug 9 2023

...A strong thunderstorm will impact portions of northeastern Lincoln
County through 200 AM CDT...

At 132 AM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
Barnard, or 10 miles northeast of Lincoln, moving east at 20 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 50 mph and nickel size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor damage to outdoor objects is
         possible.

Locations impacted include...
Barnard.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

A Severe Thunderstorm Watch remains in effect until 500 AM CDT for
central Kansas.

&&

LAT...LON 3905 9793 3907 9816 3922 9817 3922 9793
TIME...MOT...LOC 0632Z 266DEG 16KT 3915 9801

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.88 IN
MAX WIND GUST...50 MPH

BUTLER

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Wichita KS
221 AM CDT Wed Aug 9 2023

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0221 AM     Hail             Hoisington              38.52N 98.78W
08/09/2023  M1.00 inch       Barton             KS   Law Enforcement

&&

MWM

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Wichita KS
257 AM CDT Wed Aug 9 2023

KSZ069-083-092-093-090830-
Butler KS-Cowley KS-Sumner KS-Sedgwick KS-
257 AM CDT Wed Aug 9 2023

...Strong thunderstorms will impact portions of northern Cowley,
southern Sedgwick, southern Butler and northern Sumner Counties
through 330 AM CDT...

At 256 AM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking strong thunderstorms along
a line extending from 5 miles northwest of Viola to 5 miles east of
Mulvane to 6 miles northeast of Dexter. Movement was east
to northeast at 35 mph.

HAZARD...Winds in excess of 30 mph and half inch hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor damage to outdoor objects is
         possible.

Locations impacted include...
Wichita, Derby, Winfield, Andover, Haysville, Augusta, Wellington,
Mulvane, Goddard, Rose Hill, Clearwater, Cheney, Douglass, Belle
Plaine, Conway Springs, Oxford, Garden Plain, Udall, Downtown
Wichita, and Eastborough.

This includes the following highways...
 Interstate 135 between Mile Markers 0 and 7.
 Interstate 35 between Mile Markers 18 and 53.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

These storms may intensify, so be certain to monitor local radio
stations and available television stations for additional information
and possible warnings from the National Weather Service.

&&

LAT...LON 3738 9780 3773 9780 3765 9653 3700 9653
TIME...MOT...LOC 0756Z 247DEG 29KT 3752 9772 3748 9713 3724 9662

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.50 IN
MAX WIND GUST...30 MPH

KLEINSASSER

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