Severe Thunderstorm Warning 224, NWS Wichita, KS

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wichita KS
202 AM CDT Wed Aug 9 2023

Forecast Highlights:

* Severe Storms early this morning

* Heat looks to return on Friday with heat indices possibly
  approaching 105 in the afternoon

* A couple rounds of storms look to affect the region during the
  Friday night through Monday period

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Friday night)
Issued at 200 AM CDT Wed Aug 9 2023

Current early morning satellite water vapor imagery shows the
healthy upper level weather system over Wyoming/Colorado moving
eastward. Storms are beginning to develop into a larger complex of
storms over western Kansas. This complex of storms is expected to
gain momentum and grow upscale as it moves eastward across central
Kansas. In addition we could see another area of storms develop over
southern Kansas ahead of this complex where low level jet focus is
increasing. The two areas of storms will merge and continue a
east/southeast movement with damaging to significant damaging winds
likely. The convection will linger over eastern Kansas this morning
then shift east into Missouri by this afternoon, as the upper level
system tracks eastward with associated cold front pushing southward
across Kansas today. A dry weather pattern looks to be on tap for
Thursday with surface high pressure over the region. Models do show
a signal for some mid-level warm advection Thursday night maybe
generating more elevated convection, across far southern Kansas with
better chances for Oklahoma.

Heading into Friday the heat looks to increase for Kansas where heat
indices could reach possible advisory levels of 105 degrees. Yet
another signal for night-time storms could affect the region Friday
night.

.LONG TERM...(Saturday through Tuesday)
Issued at 200 AM CDT Wed Aug 9 2023

Upper level flow will be more west/northwest for the weekend with
models showing a couple embedded waves migrating across the central
plains. This looks to induce some mid-level warm advection which
would give way to thunderstorm chances. Meanwhile heading into early
next week the upper level flow becomes more northwest flow
orientated with surface high pressure building over Kansas. The mid-
level baroclinic zone becomes more north to south aligned by Monday,
and a signal for warm advection across it could spark off another
round of storms Monday night.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Wednesday night)
Issued at 1226 AM CDT Wed Aug 9 2023

We are still expecting scattered to numerous thunderstorms to
impact the region overnight into Wednesday morning from west to
east, as an upper shortwave approaches from the west, interacting
with increasing low to mid level warm/moist advection. Activity
has increased eastward over western Kansas the past few hours
based on regional radar trends. Degree of instability combined
with unseasonably strong deep layer effective shear will support
strong to severe storms, with damaging winds, large hail, and
locally heavy rainfall the primary concerns. Included prevailing
VCTS and TEMPO TSRA at all sites overnight into early Wednesday
morning.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Wichita-KICT    84  65  90  70 /  50  10   0  20
Hutchinson      83  63  90  69 /  50  10   0  10
Newton          83  64  90  70 /  60  10   0  10
ElDorado        84  64  89  69 /  60  10   0  10
Winfield-KWLD   86  65  89  70 /  40  10   0  20
Russell         82  62  90  68 /  30   0   0  20
Great Bend      82  62  88  68 /  40   0   0  20
Salina          82  64  90  70 /  80  10   0  10
McPherson       82  63  90  69 /  60  10   0  10
Coffeyville     87  66  90  69 /  80  10   0  10
Chanute         85  65  88  67 /  80  10   0  10
Iola            84  64  86  66 /  90  10   0  10
Parsons-KPPF    87  65  90  68 /  80  10   0  10

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

SHORT TERM...CDJ
LONG TERM...CDJ
AVIATION...ADK

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Wichita KS
940 PM CDT Tue Aug 8 2023

KSZ032-033-047>053-067>072-082-083-091>096-098>100-100245-
Russell-Lincoln-Barton-Ellsworth-Saline-Rice-McPherson-Marion-Chase-
Reno-Harvey-Butler-Greenwood-Woodson-Allen-Kingman-Sedgwick-Harper-
Sumner-Cowley-Elk-Wilson-Neosho-Chautauqua-Montgomery-Labette-
940 PM CDT Tue Aug 8 2023

This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of Central Kansas,
South Central Kansas and Southeast Kansas.

.DAY ONE...Tonight

Scattered to numerous thunderstorms are expected later tonight
across the region, especially along and north of a line extending
from roughly Hutchinson to Wichita to Sedan. Strong to severe storms
are likely, with destructive winds of 60 to 80 mph and nickel to
half-dollar size hail the primary threats. Additionally, areas of
very heavy rainfall and localized flooding are possible as well.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Wednesday through Monday

Severe storms could affect southeast Kansas early Wednesday morning,
with damaging winds as the main risk.

Additional thunderstorm chances could affect the region Thursday
night through Monday. Strong to severe storms are possible during
these periods.

Heat indices may approach 105 degrees Friday and Saturday across
much of south-central and southeast Kansas.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not anticipated tonight. However, reports of
severe weather and rainfall would be greatly appreciated.

&&

For a graphical version of this information, see our webpage at:
https://weather.gov/crh/ghwo?sid=ict

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Wichita KS
132 AM CDT Wed Aug 9 2023

KSZ033-090700-
Lincoln KS-
132 AM CDT Wed Aug 9 2023

...A strong thunderstorm will impact portions of northeastern Lincoln
County through 200 AM CDT...

At 132 AM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
Barnard, or 10 miles northeast of Lincoln, moving east at 20 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 50 mph and nickel size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor damage to outdoor objects is
         possible.

Locations impacted include...
Barnard.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

A Severe Thunderstorm Watch remains in effect until 500 AM CDT for
central Kansas.

&&

LAT...LON 3905 9793 3907 9816 3922 9817 3922 9793
TIME...MOT...LOC 0632Z 266DEG 16KT 3915 9801

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.88 IN
MAX WIND GUST...50 MPH

BUTLER