Severe Thunderstorm Warning 10, NWS Wichita, KS

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wichita KS
618 PM CDT Tue Apr 4 2023

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 424 PM CDT Tue Apr 4 2023

There is a trough from the Plains to the southern Rockies. The
associated cold front is on the move between Ellsworth and Salina
then between Lyons and Hutchinson. There is a dryline through south
central Kansas which has begun to retreat westward through the
afternoon. A contrast in temperatures exists with values around 80
degrees in southeast Kansas to near 90 in south central Kansas and
in the lower 60s in north central Kansas.

Strong winds and drier air still pose a fire weather threat
specifically in portions of north central and south central
Kansas at least for the next few hours. Thus the Red Flag Warning
and Wind Advisory remain for now. They may need to be cancelled
earlier behind the cold front. This can be assessed by the evening
shift.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Friday night)
Issued at 424 PM CDT Tue Apr 4 2023

Highlights:

1) Chances for severe thunderstorms through the Flint Hills into SE
KS tonight

2) Freezing temperatures early Wed & early Thur

3) Cooler Wed & Thur

Changes:

1) Timing of cold front - winds, dewpoints & temps

2) Westward extent of precipitation chances

Challenges:

1) Timing cold front

2) Westward extent of convection

Severe thunderstorms remain possible this evening and tonight as the
trough strengthens with its northeast movement to the Northern
Plains. Surface based CAPE is expected to be around 2-3k J/kg with
effective bulk shear of 50-70kts. CAMS suggest development will
occur along the cold front with initially a discrete mode before
quickly transitioning to a linear mode. Initialization is around 2-
4Z(9-11PM) with an exit of Kansas by around 9Z(4AM). However, the
cold front is quickly moving southeast with the dryline retreating
further west this afternoon. Thus development very well may occur
quicker. These short term convective models have different locations
for the initial development with some further back to the west
even closer to the Kansas Turnpike (Wichita Metro) according the
NAM Nest while others highlight the Flint Hills and points east.
Discrete initial development could present the possibility for all
hazards (large hail, damaging winds and tornadoes); this
development may occur in northeast Kansas with more a linear
threat as the cold front fills in towards south central and
southeast Kansas. However, the HRRR suggests discrete cells
through the Flint Hills first. If the timing occurs after dark, it
is extra important to have ways to be alerted and consider
checking the forecast before heading to bed tonight especially
those in the Flint Hills into southeast Kansas. Additionally make
sure to have ways to receive warnings if you have outdoor plans
this evening.

Cooler air will surge southward behind the cold front and drop
temperatures into the mid 20s to lower 30s in north central Kansas
with values in the upper 20s to mid 30s in south central Kansas.
Given the recent warm up, the decision was to put the areas that
will drop into the upper 20s into a Freeze Warning. Breezy winds
should prevent frost potential. If you have been proactive in
planting, you will want to cover or take in any sensitive flowers or
plants in north central and south central for at least the next
couple of nights.

.LONG TERM...(Saturday through Tuesday)
Issued at 424 PM CDT Tue Apr 4 2023

Highlights:

1) Gradual warm up

2) Slight chances for showers and storms Sun eve-early Mon

A ridge moves in for Friday and Saturday. There is a weak wave
expected to move through late Saturday to Sunday. This could lead to
possible showers and thunderstorms. Confidence is lower with this
potential so stay tuned. A warming trend is anticipated through this
part of the forecast with afternoon high temperatures back near 80
degrees for Easter Sunday.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Wednesday evening)
Issued at 618 PM CDT Tue Apr 4 2023

A strong cold front will move from south central and northeast
Kansas across southeast Kansas through early tonight. Scattered
strong to severe convection is expected ahead of the front during
the mid to late evening hours. Strong south to southwest winds
ahead of the front will shift to north-northwest and remain quite
strong behind the front tonight into early Wednesday. MVFR/IFR
vsbys in rain and patchy MVFR cigs can be expected ahead of the
front with any convection and a transient patch of mainly VFR
cigs just behind the frontal passage. Otherwise, diminishing north
to northwest winds and VFR conditions expected on Wednesday.

KED

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 424 PM CDT Tue Apr 4 2023

Strong winds and drier air still pose a fire weather threat
specifically in portions of north central and south central
Kansas at least for the next few hours with extreme to
catastrophic on the Grassland Fire Danger Index. Thus the Red
Flag Warning remains for now. It may need to be cancelled earlier
behind the cold front. This can be assessed by the evening shift.
Very high grassland fire danger persists into the nighttime hours.

On Friday and Saturday, there is potential for very high fire
danger in north central and portions of south central Kansas as a
gradual warming trend occurs. Minimum relative humidities are
expected to be in the upper teens to lower 20s on Friday and the
20s on Saturday. Afternoon wind speeds are expected to range from
15 to 25 mph.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Wichita-KICT    34  55  32  61 /  10   0   0   0
Hutchinson      30  53  28  60 /  10   0   0   0
Newton          32  53  29  61 /  20   0   0   0
ElDorado        34  54  32  61 /  30   0   0   0
Winfield-KWLD   36  57  33  63 /  20   0   0   0
Russell         26  51  24  61 /  10   0   0   0
Great Bend      26  52  24  60 /  10   0   0   0
Salina          31  53  26  61 /  10   0   0   0
McPherson       30  53  26  60 /  10   0   0   0
Coffeyville     42  58  35  61 /  40   0   0   0
Chanute         40  56  34  61 /  60   0   0   0
Iola            38  55  33  60 /  60   0   0   0
Parsons-KPPF    41  57  34  61 /  60   0   0   0

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Red Flag Warning until 11 PM CDT Tuesday for north central, south
central and most of southeast Kansas.

Wind Advisory until 1 AM CDT Wednesday for KSZ032-033-047>053-
067>072-082-083-091>096-098>100.

Freeze Warning from 3 AM to 9 AM CDT Wednesday for KSZ032-033-
047-048-050-067.

&&

SYNOPSIS...VJP
SHORT TERM...VJP
LONG TERM...VJP
AVIATION...KED
FIRE WEATHER...VJP

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