Tornado Warning 28, NWS Huntsville, AL

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Huntsville AL
1131 PM CDT Fri Mar 24 2023

...New AVIATION...

.NEAR TERM...
(Tonight)
Issued at 543 PM CDT Fri Mar 24 2023

A line of strong to severe thunderstorms continues to push east
across western Mississippi. Several supercell thunderstorms have
developed south of this line into central Mississippi as well
along a secondary warm front with the loss of daytime heating.
Despite some cooling early this evening in NW Alabama and near
the AL/MS border, the area may still have surface based
instability between 100 and 500 J/KG in place, especially south of
the Tennessee River. Plenty of effective shear is already in
place in NW Alabama of 40 to 60 knots. Effective shear has also
increased over the past hour to between 200 and 300 M2/S2 as well.

Timing for the main period of severe weather still looks to be
along and ahead of the pre-frontal trough axis that is currently
producing this robust convection over western Mississippi. This
would be mainly between 10 PM and 5 AM on Saturday. The strength
of the low/mid level wind fields suggest some very strong wind
gusts to between 65 and 75 could be possible where we remain
surface based. This may be more south of the Tennessee River, but
several models show very meager CAPE around 100 to 200 J/KG
remaining in place as far north as southern middle Tennessee
overnight. Main threats will be damaging winds and tornadoes.
Though, some large hail might occurred overnight if MUCAPE get
around 1000 J/KG just ahead of the pre-frontal trough axis. Very
heavy rainfall rates are also expected over the area. Though the
area of convection is expected to accelerate and move more quickly
overnight, the very intense rainfall rates could cause some
flooding given (current flash flood guidance of 1.5 to 2.5 inches
in most locations).

Given radar trends and the environment, expect a watch (likely a
tornado watch) to be in place between 9 and 10 PM CDT.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Saturday through Monday)
Issued at 300 PM CDT Fri Mar 24 2023

After the main line of thunderstorms clear out Saturday morning,
gusty winds up to 45 mph will remain despite lack of rain. With
saturated soils and weakened trees, this time will be particularly
of concern as trees will be at risk of falling more easily than
normal. The aforementioned Wind Advisory is set to expire at 12Z
(7 AM CT) due to gusts dipping below criteria by this time.
Despite being below criteria, Saturday will be a windy day with an
increased pressure gradient over our area. High temperatures are
expected to climb into the mid to upper 70s with mostly clear,
post- frontal skies. The dry weather may be short- lived, however,
as Sunday afternoon brings a low chance (15-20%) for rain south
of the TN River due to a potential stalled boundary in Central AL.
These chances will increase both in likelihood and area in the
evening and overnight, reaching medium chances of 40-60%. By
Monday, rain should clear out NW to SE as a secondary cold front
moves through and continues southeast, allowing a return of mostly
sunny skies.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Monday night through Friday)
Issued at 300 PM CDT Fri Mar 24 2023

Monday night low temperatures will dip into the upper 40s to lower
50s before a short-lived pattern change begins for the mid-week.
As high pressure builds in from the NW, more seasonal temperatures
(as opposed to above-normal) are expected. Highs are expected to
be in the 60s both Tuesday and Wednesday before beginning to warm
up above-normal again Thursday, reaching the lower 70s as the high
pressure continues eastward. Confidence is still low at this time,
however, by the end of the long-term period, there may be another
system moving through with the capability to produce strong to
severe storms. We will continue to monitor this potential in
future forecast updates.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1130 PM CDT Fri Mar 24 2023

Band of strong to severe TS will continue to track east, including
the KHSV vicinity, and exiting northeast AL by ~08-09Z. Wind gusts
of 40-60kt are possible in a few locations along this band, along
with +RA and frequent lightning. IFR conditions are likely as this
moves through. Improvement to VFR will occur shortly after, but
with continued gusty southwest wind flow at times. Gusts of
25-30kt are possible through the day Saturday before diminishing
by 00Z.

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...Wind Advisory until 7 AM CDT Saturday for ALZ001>010-016.

TN...Wind Advisory until 7 AM CDT Saturday for TNZ076-096-097.

&&

NEAR TERM...KTW
SHORT TERM....HC
LONG TERM....HC
AVIATION...17

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