Severe Thunderstorm Warning 79, NWS Greenville-Spartanburg, SC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
730 PM EDT Sat Jun 3 2023

.SYNOPSIS...
Scattered showers and thunderstorms are expected to develop
ahead of a cold front dropping south into our area this evening
then moving through overnight. The front will usher in cooler
weather for Sunday, along with scattered storms then over the
mountains. Temperatures should warm back up to normal on Monday
and above normal Tuesday and Wednesday, but another cold front
should bring back mild conditions for the late part of the week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
As of 556 PM EDT Saturday: A widely scattered cu field has developed
along the I-77 corridor, even as convection begins to ramp up across
the NC-TN border and north of I-40.  Elsewhere, still mostly sunny
as we head into the evening hours.  Dewpoints across the Piedmont
and Upstate zones remain in the mid-50s, a little on the low side
for convection as a backdoor cold front sags across Virginia and
toward the Carolinas.  Still, showers are expected to stream into
the northern tier over the next few hours, with present values
of sbCAPE in the 1000-1300 J/kg range supporting some tallers,
thunder-bearing cells through perhaps midnight based on the
latest HRRR and NAMnest runs.  The cells will chase an axis of
steadily-diminishing instability as they move across the forecast
area...so it seems the northern 1/3 of the CWA is at the greatest
risk of thunderstorms, with storms increasingly unlikely south
of the NC-SC state line.  Severe risk ultimately looks quite
low, although can't rule out a strong to damaging wind gust if
a storm sets up in just the right spot...along an swath of 1000+
J/kg DCAPE values in the southern NC Piedmont.

After sunset, instability should gradually diminish across the
CWA thanks to the loss of diurnal heating. With PWATs ranging
from 1.3-1.5 inches this evening into late tonight, and with very
limited shear in place, locally heavy rainfall will be possible
due to slow storm motion. Rain chances will gradually taper off
from north to south as activity dwindles overnight into early
Sunday morning. Lows tonight will be around 2-5 degrees above
climo thanks to cloud cover and precip.

Diurnal shower and thunderstorm chances will return mainly across
the SW NC mtns Sunday afternoon and early evening so have chance to
likely PoPs across these zones. Lower PoPs will reside elsewhere
across the mtns with drier wx expected across the eastern half
of the CWA.  Lower theta-e values will be in place across the
Carolinas and NE GA on Sunday behind the departing backdoor
front. This will lead to a much cooler airmass, allowing highs
to drop to 4-8 degrees below climo, which is around 10-15 degrees
cooler than today's highs.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
As of 235 PM Saturday: An omega blocking pattern across the northern
two-thirds of North America will persist through the first half of
the coming week. Within this pattern, the western Carolinas will
remain under the cyclonic flow around the upper low spinning off
the coast of New England for Monday and Tuesday. After we get rid
of any remaining convection over the southwest part of NC on Sunday
evening, the rest of Sunday night should be quiet. For Monday, all
the forcing should be mainly thermodynamic and confined to the mtns
and foothills, as the guidance shows a lack of buoyancy over the
Piedmont of the Carolinas thru the afternoon. The fcst reflects
that scenario and keeps a chance over the higher terrain. The
convection should be diurnal in nature, so most of Monday night
should be without shower activity. Tuesday might be slightly more
active as another in a series of weak back-door boundaries may
impact the region during the day. Some of the guidance indicates
destabilization in the afternoon to allow for the development of
scattered showers, but much of the guidance keeps the convection
to a minimum. For now, we will carry a slight chance mainly in
the afternoon. Temps undergo a warming trend thru the first part
of the week, adding about five degrees to highs and lows each day.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
As of 143 PM Saturday: Looks like we will continue to be plagued
by an omega blocking pattern thru the end of the work week, and
mainly under the influence of the upper low spinning slowly over
nrn New England and the Canadian Maritimes. The main effect will be
to keep temps at or below normal for the most part, which might be
good news to those who would like to hold off the summertime heat
for as long as possible. Wednesday might be the one day out in the
medium range that would be seasonally warm, but yet another weak
backdoor cold front is expected to drop in from the north Wednesday
or Wednesday night. If this boundary drops down as expected, it
would provide some focus for shower and thunderstorm development,
and some of the guidance shows a fairly active frontal zone. At this
time, though, differences as to when the best chance will be for the
frontal zone passage ends up smearing out the precip chance and we
get a long period of slight chance as a result. Later model runs
should bring this more into focus, but not necessarily giving us
anything higher than a 30/40 PoP. The passage of the front should
drop temps back down below normal for at least Thursday. From that
point onward, we keep a slight chance in the forecast to account
for short waves pinwheeling around the upper low on Thursday and
Friday. The blocking pattern may finally give it up on Saturday
with the northeastern upper low moving away and flat ridging coming
in from the west and over the Carolinas. That would push us back
toward our late spring climatology for the weekend.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
At KCLT and elsewhere: Thunder is finally getting some traction as
a backdoor cold front sags into the Carolinas, triggering a wave
of convective iniation along the I-40 corridor.  Mentionable TSRA
at all the NC terminals, with a transition to SHRA for the SC
terminals, which will not see as much action until later into
tonight.  Low end gusts are possible if not likely as storms work
through, followed by the boundary itself through the morning hours.
Once storms clear out, a steady descent to MVFR ceilings is
expected across the board...with improving confidence that sites
especially in the NC Piedmont may see periods of IFR ceilings.
This will persist through daybreak, then gradually improve once
the sun comes up...likely to VFR by late morning.  Tomorrow looks
dry except for KAVL and KHKY, which may see some light showers
tomorrow, though sans thunder based on current trends.  NE winds
will persist through the period.

Outlook: Another cold front will arrive from the north early to
middle of next week keeping shower and thunderstorm chances along
with associated restrictions around.

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...None.
NC...None.
SC...None.

&&

SYNOPSIS...PM
NEAR TERM...AR/MPR
SHORT TERM...PM
LONG TERM...PM
AVIATION...MPR

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
422 PM EDT Sat Jun 3 2023

NCZ035>037-056-057-502-504-042030-
Alexander-Iredell-Davie-Catawba-Rowan-Greater Caldwell-Greater Burke-
422 PM EDT Sat Jun 3 2023

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for piedmont North Carolina and
western North Carolina.

.DAY ONE...Tonight.

Scattered thunderstorms are in the forecast this evening. Any of the
storms will be capable of dangerous cloud-to-ground lightning. A
couple of the storms additionally may produce strong, damaging wind
gusts.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Sunday through Friday.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

None.

NCZ033-048>050-053-064-065-068>072-082-501-503-505>510-SCZ008-009-
013-014-102-103-106-108-109-042030-
Avery-Madison-Yancey-Mitchell-Buncombe-Transylvania-Henderson-
Cleveland-Lincoln-Gaston-Mecklenburg-Cabarrus-Union NC-
Caldwell Mountains-Burke Mountains-McDowell Mountains-
Eastern McDowell-Rutherford Mountains-Greater Rutherford-
Polk Mountains-Eastern Polk-Cherokee-York-Union SC-Chester-
Pickens Mountains-Greenville Mountains-Central Greenville-
Northern Spartanburg-Southern Spartanburg-
422 PM EDT Sat Jun 3 2023

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for piedmont North Carolina,
western North Carolina and upstate South Carolina.

.DAY ONE...Tonight.

Isolated or widely scattered thunderstorms are in the forecast this
evening. Any of the storms will be capable of dangerous cloud-to-
ground lightning.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Sunday through Friday.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

None.

GAZ010-017-018-026-028-029-NCZ051-052-058-059-062-063-SCZ010>012-019-
101-104-105-107-042030-
Rabun-Habersham-Stephens-Franklin-Hart-Elbert-Swain-Haywood-Graham-
Northern Jackson-Macon-Southern Jackson-Anderson-Abbeville-Laurens-
Greenwood-Oconee Mountains-Greater Oconee-Greater Pickens-
Southern Greenville-
422 PM EDT Sat Jun 3 2023

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for northeast Georgia, western
North Carolina and upstate South Carolina.

.DAY ONE...Tonight.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Sunday through Friday.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

None.

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