Severe Thunderstorm Warning 78, NWS Greenville-Spartanburg, SC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
558 PM EDT Sat Jun 3 2023

.SYNOPSIS...
Scattered showers and thunderstorms are expected to develop
ahead of a cold front dropping south into our area this evening
then moving through overnight. The front will usher in cooler
weather for Sunday, along with scattered storms then over the
mountains. Temperatures should warm back up to normal on Monday
and above normal Tuesday and Wednesday, but another cold front
should bring back mild conditions for the late part of the week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
As of 556 PM EDT Saturday: A widely scattered cu field has developed
along the I-77 corridor, even as convection begins to ramp up across
the NC-TN border and north of I-40.  Elsewhere, still mostly sunny
as we head into the evening hours.  Dewpoints across the Piedmont
and Upstate zones remain in the mid-50s, a little on the low side
for convection as a backdoor cold front sags across Virginia and
toward the Carolinas.  Still, showers are expected to stream into
the northern tier over the next few hours, with present values
of sbCAPE in the 1000-1300 J/kg range supporting some tallers,
thunder-bearing cells through perhaps midnight based on the
latest HRRR and NAMnest runs.  The cells will chase an axis of
steadily-diminishing instability as they move across the forecast
area...so it seems the northern 1/3 of the CWA is at the greatest
risk of thunderstorms, with storms increasingly unlikely south
of the NC-SC state line.  Severe risk ultimately looks quite
low, although can't rule out a strong to damaging wind gust if
a storm sets up in just the right spot...along an swath of 1000+
J/kg DCAPE values in the southern NC Piedmont.

After sunset, instability should gradually diminish across the
CWA thanks to the loss of diurnal heating. With PWATs ranging
from 1.3-1.5 inches this evening into late tonight, and with very
limited shear in place, locally heavy rainfall will be possible
due to slow storm motion. Rain chances will gradually taper off
from north to south as activity dwindles overnight into early
Sunday morning. Lows tonight will be around 2-5 degrees above
climo thanks to cloud cover and precip.

Diurnal shower and thunderstorm chances will return mainly across
the SW NC mtns Sunday afternoon and early evening so have chance to
likely PoPs across these zones. Lower PoPs will reside elsewhere
across the mtns with drier wx expected across the eastern half
of the CWA.  Lower theta-e values will be in place across the
Carolinas and NE GA on Sunday behind the departing backdoor
front. This will lead to a much cooler airmass, allowing highs
to drop to 4-8 degrees below climo, which is around 10-15 degrees
cooler than today's highs.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
As of 235 PM Saturday: An omega blocking pattern across the northern
two-thirds of North America will persist through the first half of
the coming week. Within this pattern, the western Carolinas will
remain under the cyclonic flow around the upper low spinning off
the coast of New England for Monday and Tuesday. After we get rid
of any remaining convection over the southwest part of NC on Sunday
evening, the rest of Sunday night should be quiet. For Monday, all
the forcing should be mainly thermodynamic and confined to the mtns
and foothills, as the guidance shows a lack of buoyancy over the
Piedmont of the Carolinas thru the afternoon. The fcst reflects
that scenario and keeps a chance over the higher terrain. The
convection should be diurnal in nature, so most of Monday night
should be without shower activity. Tuesday might be slightly more
active as another in a series of weak back-door boundaries may
impact the region during the day. Some of the guidance indicates
destabilization in the afternoon to allow for the development of
scattered showers, but much of the guidance keeps the convection
to a minimum. For now, we will carry a slight chance mainly in
the afternoon. Temps undergo a warming trend thru the first part
of the week, adding about five degrees to highs and lows each day.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
As of 143 PM Saturday: Looks like we will continue to be plagued
by an omega blocking pattern thru the end of the work week, and
mainly under the influence of the upper low spinning slowly over
nrn New England and the Canadian Maritimes. The main effect will be
to keep temps at or below normal for the most part, which might be
good news to those who would like to hold off the summertime heat
for as long as possible. Wednesday might be the one day out in the
medium range that would be seasonally warm, but yet another weak
backdoor cold front is expected to drop in from the north Wednesday
or Wednesday night. If this boundary drops down as expected, it
would provide some focus for shower and thunderstorm development,
and some of the guidance shows a fairly active frontal zone. At this
time, though, differences as to when the best chance will be for the
frontal zone passage ends up smearing out the precip chance and we
get a long period of slight chance as a result. Later model runs
should bring this more into focus, but not necessarily giving us
anything higher than a 30/40 PoP. The passage of the front should
drop temps back down below normal for at least Thursday. From that
point onward, we keep a slight chance in the forecast to account
for short waves pinwheeling around the upper low on Thursday and
Friday. The blocking pattern may finally give it up on Saturday
with the northeastern upper low moving away and flat ridging coming
in from the west and over the Carolinas. That would push us back
toward our late spring climatology for the weekend.

&&

.AVIATION /22Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
At KCLT and elsewhere: Starting to see some VFR cu develop across
the mtns this afternoon. VFR cigs will continue this afternoon and
evening. Dry conditions should remain in place through the late
afternoon and early evening hours. A backdoor cold front will track
across the western Carolinas overnight increasing shower and
thunderstorm chances. Handled this potential with TEMPOs. Have
thunder mentioned in the TEMPOs at KHKY and KCLT as these areas are
mostly likely to see thunderstorms. Have SHRA mentioned at KAVL,
KGSP, and KGMU as these areas will have lesser chances to see
thunder. KAND just has a VCSH mentioned as activity looks to
gradually fall apart as it pushes southward overnight. Low-end wind
gusts are possible east of the mtns this afternoon and evening and
again on Sunday. Wind direction will remain NE'ly east of the mtns
through the 18Z TAF fcst period. Winds at KAVL will be NE this
afternoon before becoming north this evening, and then light and
variable overnight. KAVL's winds turn SE'ly on Sunday. Sunday should
remain dry for terminals east of the mtns. Shower and thunderstorm
chances return Sunday afternoon across the mtns, so have VCSH
mentioned at KAVL towards the end of the period.

Outlook: Another cold front will arrive from the north early to
middle of next week keeping shower and thunderstorm chances around.

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...None.
NC...None.
SC...None.

&&

SYNOPSIS...PM
NEAR TERM...AR/MPR
SHORT TERM...PM
LONG TERM...PM
AVIATION...AR

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
422 PM EDT Sat Jun 3 2023

NCZ035>037-056-057-502-504-042030-
Alexander-Iredell-Davie-Catawba-Rowan-Greater Caldwell-Greater Burke-
422 PM EDT Sat Jun 3 2023

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for piedmont North Carolina and
western North Carolina.

.DAY ONE...Tonight.

Scattered thunderstorms are in the forecast this evening. Any of the
storms will be capable of dangerous cloud-to-ground lightning. A
couple of the storms additionally may produce strong, damaging wind
gusts.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Sunday through Friday.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

None.

NCZ033-048>050-053-064-065-068>072-082-501-503-505>510-SCZ008-009-
013-014-102-103-106-108-109-042030-
Avery-Madison-Yancey-Mitchell-Buncombe-Transylvania-Henderson-
Cleveland-Lincoln-Gaston-Mecklenburg-Cabarrus-Union NC-
Caldwell Mountains-Burke Mountains-McDowell Mountains-
Eastern McDowell-Rutherford Mountains-Greater Rutherford-
Polk Mountains-Eastern Polk-Cherokee-York-Union SC-Chester-
Pickens Mountains-Greenville Mountains-Central Greenville-
Northern Spartanburg-Southern Spartanburg-
422 PM EDT Sat Jun 3 2023

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for piedmont North Carolina,
western North Carolina and upstate South Carolina.

.DAY ONE...Tonight.

Isolated or widely scattered thunderstorms are in the forecast this
evening. Any of the storms will be capable of dangerous cloud-to-
ground lightning.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Sunday through Friday.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

None.

GAZ010-017-018-026-028-029-NCZ051-052-058-059-062-063-SCZ010>012-019-
101-104-105-107-042030-
Rabun-Habersham-Stephens-Franklin-Hart-Elbert-Swain-Haywood-Graham-
Northern Jackson-Macon-Southern Jackson-Anderson-Abbeville-Laurens-
Greenwood-Oconee Mountains-Greater Oconee-Greater Pickens-
Southern Greenville-
422 PM EDT Sat Jun 3 2023

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for northeast Georgia, western
North Carolina and upstate South Carolina.

.DAY ONE...Tonight.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Sunday through Friday.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

None.

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
531 PM EDT Sat Jun 3 2023

NCZ503-504-032200-
Burke Mountains NC-Greater Burke NC-
531 PM EDT Sat Jun 3 2023

...A strong thunderstorm will impact portions of western Burke County
through 600 PM EDT...

At 531 PM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 5
miles north of Morganton, moving southwest at 20 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 40 mph and pea size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor damage to outdoor objects is
         possible.

Locations impacted include...
Morganton, Drexel, Glen Alpine, Table Rock, Lake James, Lake James
State Park, Lake Rhodhiss, South Mountains State Park and Oak Hill.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with this storm and may lead to
localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

&&

LAT...LON 3588 8171 3585 8164 3582 8162 3582 8160
      3578 8156 3559 8178 3559 8179 3558 8180
      3558 8182 3572 8187 3580 8198 3591 8174
TIME...MOT...LOC 2131Z 053DEG 17KT 3582 8170

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.25 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH

HG

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
540 PM EDT Sat Jun 3 2023

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0530 PM     Hail             1 ENE Salisbury         35.67N 80.47W
06/03/2023  E0.25 inch       Rowan              NC   Public

&&

wjm

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
601 PM EDT Sat Jun 3 2023

NCZ036-057-032230-
Rowan NC-Iredell NC-
601 PM EDT Sat Jun 3 2023

...A strong thunderstorm will impact portions of east central Iredell
and western Rowan Counties through 630 PM EDT...

At 600 PM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 10
miles southwest of Mocksville, or near Cleveland, moving southwest at
10 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 40 mph and half inch hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor damage to outdoor objects is
         possible.

Locations impacted include...
Statesville, Troutman, Cleveland, Mount Ulla, Piedmont Research
Station, Woodleaf and Cool Springs.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with this storm and may lead to
localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

&&

LAT...LON 3555 8065 3570 8093 3587 8071 3585 8070
      3586 8069 3585 8067 3584 8067 3585 8064
      3583 8061 3582 8061 3583 8060 3578 8052
TIME...MOT...LOC 2200Z 035DEG 10KT 3577 8067

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.50 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH

HG

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
626 PM EDT Sat Jun 3 2023

NCZ036-056-057-069-071-072-032300-
Rowan NC-Iredell NC-Lincoln NC-Cabarrus NC-Mecklenburg NC-Catawba NC-
626 PM EDT Sat Jun 3 2023

...Strong thunderstorms will impact portions of northwestern
Cabarrus, southeastern Catawba, eastern Lincoln, southeastern
Iredell, northwestern Mecklenburg and southwestern Rowan Counties
through 700 PM EDT...

At 624 PM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking strong thunderstorms along
a line extending from 8 miles south of Statesville to 6 miles
northwest of Kannapolis. Movement was southwest at 20 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 40 mph and pea size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor damage to outdoor objects is
         possible.

Locations impacted include...
Huntersville, Kannapolis, Northeast Charlotte, Cornelius,
Mooresville, Davidson, Enochville, Westport, Troutman and Lake
Norman.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

If on or near Lake Norman, get out of the water and move indoors or
inside a vehicle. Remember, lightning can strike out to 10 miles
from the parent thunderstorm. If you can hear thunder, you are close
enough to be struck by lightning. Move to safe shelter now! Do not
be caught on the water in a thunderstorm.

&&

LAT...LON 3528 8081 3535 8093 3535 8094 3536 8092
      3538 8096 3537 8097 3538 8099 3540 8095
      3540 8104 3550 8122 3573 8092 3555 8062
TIME...MOT...LOC 2224Z 034DEG 19KT 3567 8092 3554 8071

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.25 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH

HG