Severe Thunderstorm Warning 29, NWS Greenville-Spartanburg, SC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
246 PM EST Fri Mar 3 2023

.SYNOPSIS...
A strong cold front will cross the region from the west late this
afternoon through this evening, bringing the potential for severe
storms to the area. Dry high pressure will arrive over the weekend
and linger into the first part of next week. Another cold front will
arrive Tuesday, before stalling south of the area through the middle
of next week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
As of 200 pm EST: The latest surface analysis and satellite imagery
reveals a vigorous cyclone centered over the western OH Valley,
with the leading edge of a frontal zone arcing through central KY/
middle TN/northern AL. Strong convergence is inferred in this
region, with good S/SE warm sector inflow meeting strong SW flow
behind the boundary. Strong-to-severe thunderstorms have erupted
within this convergent axis where sbCAPE has increased to around
1000 J/kg. Isolated gusts of 60-75 mph are being reported with the
passage of this convection across mainly northern AL. These storms
are timed to arrive in our far western areas by 4 pm, with strong
mean flow enhanced by convective outflow likely sweeping the
activity through the CWA in only 4-ish hours. The air mass over our
area should continue to destabilize, especially as mid-levels
lift/cool in response to intensifying UVV within the exit region of a
100+ kt upper jet streak.

Speaking of which, the mid-level stable layer depicted early this
afternoon on regional forecast soundings continues to be the primary
limiting factor for a more significant severe weather threat, as
shear parameters are still expected to become very strong-to-extreme
as 60-70 kt low level jet translates across the region and
pre-frontal surface winds remain somewhat backed. Again, this layer
is expected to lift/cool, but it is still not a given that it will
be completely removed. If not, the resultant hindrance of parcel
acceleration/deep updrafts would act to limit the tornado potential.
(And it's at least noteworthy that we've yet to see any TORs issued
across TN/AL/GA this afternoon.) Nevertheless, would still expect to
see a handful of brief spin-ups...more likely of the QLCS variety
before all is said and done. So...damaging wind gusts...of the
convective and/or hybrid gradient/convective variety...not to
mention increasingly strong gradient winds will be the primary
concerns moving forward. A Wind Advisory remains in effect for all
but the northern foothills/NW Piedmont of NC through 00Z.

This evening, the Wind Advisory becomes a High Wind Warning for the
northern NC mtns, as strong cold advection develops in the wake of
the front with H8 winds shifting to the NW in the 40-50 kts range. A
Wind Advisory is also in effect for the rest of the NC mtns for the
cold advection side of the front. Conditions will otherwise clear
out quickly this evening, other than lingering upslope stratocu
along the TN/NC border. Min temps will be cooler than in recent
days, but still around 10 degrees above climo. Mostly sunny and
warm/increasingly less windy conditions on Saturday, with max temps
expected to be around 5 degrees above normal.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
As of 230 PM EST Friday...Sfc high pressure will continue to build
across the Southeast through much of the period before pushing
offshore the Carolina Coast Monday afternoon. This will lead to dry
conditions as well as above normal temperatures. With mostly sunny
skies expected, should see highs reach around 5-8 degrees above
climo Sunday with highs around 9-12 degrees above climo Monday. Lows
each morning will be around 3-7 degrees above climo despite great
radiational cooling conditions. Low-end breezy NW winds will linger
through late Saturday evening before tapering off by daybreak
Sunday. RH vales look to drop into the upper 20s to lower 30s east
of the mtns Sunday afternoon. This may lead to an increased fire
danger potential. However, with light winds expected Sunday
afternoon, this should help offset the potential somewhat. Breezy SW
winds can be expected late Monday morning into Monday evening as a
cold front approaches out of the west.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
As of 230 PM EST Friday...A weak cold front will track across the
western Carolinas and northeast Georgia Monday night into early
Tuesday morning increasing rain chances. Rain chances look to remain
confined along the NC and GA mtns so have chance PoPs across these
locations Monday night into Tuesday morning. With breezy NW winds
behind the FROPA and RH values dropping into the upper 20s to lower
30s Tuesday afternoon, this could lead to an increased fire danger.
Sfc high pressure looks to build in from the NW Tuesday evening into
the first half of Wednesday leading to drier conditions. Should see
temps around 10 to 15 degrees above climo on Tuesday before becoming
near climo to a few degrees above climo on Wednesday. Lows Tuesday
morning will be around 15-20 degrees above climo before becoming 5
to 10 degrees above climo Wednesday morning. Upper-level shortwaves
will track overhead the Carolinas Wednesday into Thursday while the
southern periphery of the sfc high continues to nose into the
Southeast. This could act to increase rain chances, but models are
not in good agreement regarding the timing or coverage of precip
during the middle of next week. Thus, capped PoPs to chance during
this timeframe. Rain chances look better Thursday night into Friday
as the sfc high over the SE weakens and retreats north as an upper
level trough deepens and forms a closed low somewhere across the
western or central CONUS. Capped PoPs to high end chance during this
timeframe as models are not in good agreement regarding the timing
of precip. Should see much cooler and below normal highs Thursday
into Friday, which could lead to some wintry p-types across the
higher elevations of the NC mtns. However, confidence on any wintry
p-types remains low with this being towards the end of the fcst
period as well as models not being in good agreement regarding both
the upper-level pattern and low-level pattern. Lows Thursday morning
and Friday morning will be around 3-7 degrees above climo thanks to
cloud cover.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
At KCLT and elsewhere: IFR cigs linger at KAVL/KHKY, with MVFR at
the upstate SC terminals. These are expected to improve to VFR by
20Z or so. Otherwise, southerly winds are steadily increasing and
are expected to become fairly intense in the vicinity of a cold
front that will approach the area this evening. Gusts of 30 to 35
kts are expected ahead of the front. A line of TS is also expected
to accompany the front, and strong wind gusts of at least 30-40 kts
are expected with this feature as it crosses the Terminal Forecast
Area between 20Z and 02Z or so. Tempos for TSRA and very gusty W
winds are included at all sites during this time frame. Skies are
expected to clear quickly behind the front this evening. Winds will
remain gusty, but steadily decrease through the night while turning
toward the NW. By sunrise Saturday, winds gusts are expected to have
relented at all sites (except at KAVL), with NW winds of 10-15 kts
expected.

Outlook: Dry and somewhat cooler high pressure returns for the
weekend, with VFR conditions prevailing through Monday. A frontal
system may bring precipitation and restrictions back to the region
on Tuesday, but more likely on Wednesday.

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...Wind Advisory until 1 AM EST Saturday for GAZ010-017-018-026-
     028-029.
NC...Wind Advisory until 1 AM EST Saturday for NCZ068>072-082-
     507>510.
     Wind Advisory until 7 PM EST this evening for NCZ033-049-050-
     501-503-505.
     High Wind Warning from 7 PM this evening to 10 AM EST Saturday
     for NCZ033-049-050-501-503-505.
     Wind Advisory until 7 AM EST Saturday for NCZ048-051>053-058-
     059-062>065.
SC...Wind Advisory until 1 AM EST Saturday for SCZ008>014-019-
     101>109.

&&

SYNOPSIS...AR
NEAR TERM...JDL
SHORT TERM...AR
LONG TERM...AR
AVIATION...JDL

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
427 PM EST Fri Mar 3 2023

GAZ010-017-018-026-028-029-NCZ068-507>510-SCZ008-010>013-019-101>109-
042130-
Rabun-Habersham-Stephens-Franklin-Hart-Elbert-Cleveland-
Rutherford Mountains-Greater Rutherford-Polk Mountains-Eastern Polk-
Cherokee-Anderson-Abbeville-Laurens-Union SC-Greenwood-
Oconee Mountains-Pickens Mountains-Greenville Mountains-
Greater Oconee-Greater Pickens-Central Greenville-
Southern Greenville-Northern Spartanburg-Southern Spartanburg-
427 PM EST Fri Mar 3 2023

...WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 1 AM EST SATURDAY...
...TORNADO WATCH 63 IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 PM EST THIS EVENING...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for northeast Georgia, piedmont
North Carolina, western North Carolina and upstate South Carolina.

.DAY ONE...Tonight.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Tornado Watch.
   Wind Advisory.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Saturday through Thursday.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation may be needed. Please relay any information about
observed severe weather to the NWS while following all local, state,
and CDC guidelines.

NCZ069>072-082-SCZ009-014-042130-
Lincoln-Gaston-Mecklenburg-Cabarrus-Union NC-York-Chester-
427 PM EST Fri Mar 3 2023

...WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 1 AM EST SATURDAY...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for piedmont North Carolina and
upstate South Carolina.

.DAY ONE...Tonight.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Wind Advisory.

Also, a strong cold front is expected to cross the area this evening.
Conditions will be sufficient for development of scattered strong to
severe thunderstorms. Damaging winds appear to be the primary threat
with these thunderstorms, with a secondary threat of tornadoes, which
most likely would be short-lived.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Saturday through Thursday.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation may be needed. Please relay any information about
observed severe weather to the NWS while following all local, state,
and CDC guidelines.

NCZ048-051>053-058-059-062>065-042130-
Madison-Swain-Haywood-Buncombe-Graham-Northern Jackson-Macon-
Southern Jackson-Transylvania-Henderson-
427 PM EST Fri Mar 3 2023

...WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 AM EST SATURDAY...
...TORNADO WATCH 63 IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 PM EST THIS EVENING...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for western North Carolina.

.DAY ONE...Tonight.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Tornado Watch.
   Wind Advisory.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Saturday through Thursday.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Wind Advisory.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation may be needed. Please relay any information about
observed severe weather to the NWS while following all local, state,
and CDC guidelines.

NCZ033-049-050-501-503-505-042130-
Avery-Yancey-Mitchell-Caldwell Mountains-Burke Mountains-
McDowell Mountains-
427 PM EST Fri Mar 3 2023

...WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING...
...TORNADO WATCH 63 IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 PM EST THIS EVENING...
...HIGH WIND WARNING IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 AM EST SATURDAY...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for western North Carolina.

.DAY ONE...Tonight.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Tornado Watch.
   Wind Advisory.
   High Wind Warning.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Saturday through Thursday.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   High Wind Warning.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation may be needed. Please relay any information about
observed severe weather to the NWS while following all local, state,
and CDC guidelines.

NCZ035>037-056-057-042130-
Alexander-Iredell-Davie-Catawba-Rowan-
427 PM EST Fri Mar 3 2023

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for piedmont North Carolina.

.DAY ONE...Tonight.

Strong, potentially damaging winds are possible this evening across
the Northwest North Carolina Piedmont. These winds may be strong
enough to knock down a few small trees or power lines, and may cause
damage to some structures.

Also, a strong cold front is expected to cross the Piedmont this
evening. Conditions will be sufficient for development of scattered
strong to severe thunderstorms. Damaging winds appear to be the
primary threat with these thunderstorms, with a secondary threat of
tornadoes, which most likely would be short-lived.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Saturday through Thursday.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation may be needed. Please relay any information about
observed severe weather to the NWS while following all local, state,
and CDC guidelines.

NCZ502-504-506-042130-
Greater Caldwell-Greater Burke-Eastern McDowell-
427 PM EST Fri Mar 3 2023

...TORNADO WATCH 63 IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 PM EST THIS EVENING...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for western North Carolina.

.DAY ONE...Tonight.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Tornado Watch.

Strong, potentially damaging winds are possible this evening across the
northern North Carolina foothills. These winds may be strong enough
to knock down a few small trees or power lines, and may cause damage
to some structures.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Saturday through Thursday.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation may be needed. Please relay any information about
observed severe weather to the NWS while following all local, state,
and CDC guidelines.

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