High Wind Warning 2, NWS Greenville-Spartanburg, SC

313 
WWUS72 KGSP 031454
NPWGSP

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
954 AM EST Fri Mar 3 2023

NCZ033-049-050-501-503-505-040000-
/O.CON.KGSP.HW.W.0002.230304T0000Z-230304T1500Z/
/O.CON.KGSP.WI.Y.0009.230303T1800Z-230304T0000Z/
Avery-Yancey-Mitchell-Caldwell Mountains-Burke Mountains-
McDowell Mountains-
Including the cities of Ingalls, Banner Elk, Newland, Swiss, 
Burnsville, Celo, Micaville, Ramseytown, Busick, Spruce Pine, 
Poplar, Jonas Ridge, Ashford, Woodlawn, and Old Fort
954 AM EST Fri Mar 3 2023

...WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO
7 PM EST THIS EVENING...
...HIGH WIND WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO
10 AM EST SATURDAY...

* WHAT...For the High Wind Warning, west winds 25 to 35 mph with
  gusts of 50 to 60 mph expected. For the Wind Advisory, south
  winds 15 to 25 mph with gusts of 35 to 50 mph expected.

* WHERE...Avery, Yancey, Mitchell, and the high elevations of 
  Caldwell, Burke, and McDowell Counties.

* WHEN...For the High Wind Warning, from 7 PM this evening to 10 
  AM EST Saturday. For the Wind Advisory, from 1 PM this 
  afternoon to 7 PM EST this evening.

* IMPACTS...Damaging winds will blow down trees and power lines. 
  Widespread power outages are expected. Travel will be 
  difficult, especially for high profile vehicles.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

People should avoid being outside in forested areas and around
trees and branches. If possible, remain in the lower levels of
your home during the windstorm, and avoid windows. Use caution if
you must drive.

&&

$$

NCZ048-051>053-058-059-062>065-040000-
/O.CON.KGSP.WI.Y.0009.230303T1800Z-230304T1200Z/
Madison-Swain-Haywood-Buncombe-Graham-Northern Jackson-Macon-
Southern Jackson-Transylvania-Henderson-
Including the cities of Faust, Mars Hill, Marshall, Walnut, 
Allenstand, Hot Springs, Luck, Alarka, Almond, Bryson City, 
Luada, Wesser, Waynesville, Waterville, Canton, Cruso, 
Cove Creek, Asheville, Black Mountain, Candler, Robbinsville, 
Stecoah, Cullowhee, Tuckasegee, Sylva, Franklin, Rainbow Springs,
Kyle, Highlands, Wolf Mountain, Cashiers, Brevard, 
Cedar Mountain, Little River, Hendersonville, Fletcher, Dana, 
East Flat Rock, Tuxedo, and Etowah
954 AM EST Fri Mar 3 2023

...WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO
7 AM EST SATURDAY...

* WHAT...Southwest winds 15 to 30 mph with gusts of 35 to 50 mph 
  expected, and gusts up to 55 mph possible along the higher 
  ridges of the Smokies.

* WHERE...Madison, Swain, Haywood, Buncombe, Graham, Jackson, 
  Macon, Transylvania, and Henderson Counties.

* WHEN...From 1 PM this afternoon to 7 AM EST Saturday.

* IMPACTS...Gusty winds could blow around unsecured objects. 
  Tree limbs could be blown down and a few power outages may 
  result.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Use extra caution when driving, especially if operating a high
profile vehicle. Secure outdoor objects.

&&

$$

GAZ010-017-018-026-028-029-NCZ068>072-082-507>510-SCZ008>014-019-
101>109-040000-
/O.CON.KGSP.WI.Y.0009.230303T1800Z-230304T0600Z/
Rabun-Habersham-Stephens-Franklin-Hart-Elbert-Cleveland-Lincoln-
Gaston-Mecklenburg-Cabarrus-Union NC-Rutherford Mountains-
Greater Rutherford-Polk Mountains-Eastern Polk-Cherokee-York-
Anderson-Abbeville-Laurens-Union SC-Chester-Greenwood-
Oconee Mountains-Pickens Mountains-Greenville Mountains-
Greater Oconee-Greater Pickens-Central Greenville-
Southern Greenville-Northern Spartanburg-Southern Spartanburg-
Including the cities of Clayton, Pine Mountain, Mountain City, 
Cornelia, Demorest, Clarkesville, Hollywood, Boydville, Toccoa, 
Royston, Gumlog, Lavonia, Franklin Springs, Canon, Hartwell, 
Nuberg, Reed Creek, Elberton, Fortsonia, Middleton, Ruckersville,
Shelby, Kings Mountain, Lincolnton, Crouse, Gastonia, Charlotte, 
Huntersville, Matthews, Concord, Kannapolis, Monroe, Trinity, 
Indian Trail, Weddington, Chimney Rock State Park, Forest City, 
Rutherfordton, Spindale, Saluda, Tryon, Columbus, Mill Spring, 
Gaffney, Catawba, Rock Hill, Anderson, Abbeville, Calhoun Falls, 
Laurens, Clinton, Union, Monarch Mills, Chester, Cornwell, 
Great Falls, Ware Shoals, Ninety Six, Mountain Rest, 
Rocky Bottom, Glassy Mountain, Seneca, Walhalla, Oakway, 
Westminster, Easley, Dacusville, Clemson, Greenville, Taylors, 
Greer, Berea, Mauldin, Fork Shoals, Simpsonville, Fountain Inn, 
Boiling Springs Sc, Fingerville, Duncan, Lyman, Landrum, 
Wellford, Inman, and Spartanburg
954 AM EST Fri Mar 3 2023

...WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO
1 AM EST SATURDAY...

* WHAT...Southwest winds 15 to 30 mph with gusts up to 40 to 50 
  mph expected at times.

* WHERE...Northeast Georgia, Upstate South Carolina, and the 
  southern foothills and piedmont of western North Carolina.

* WHEN...From 1 PM this afternoon to 1 AM EST Saturday.

* IMPACTS...Gusty winds could blow around unsecured objects. 
  Tree limbs could be blown down and a few power outages may 
  result.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Use extra caution when driving, especially if operating a high
profile vehicle. Secure outdoor objects.

&&

$$
Lane

679 
WWUS72 KGSP 032357
NPWGSP

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
657 PM EST Fri Mar 3 2023

NCZ033-049-050-501-503-505-040800-
/O.EXP.KGSP.WI.Y.0009.000000T0000Z-230304T0000Z/
/O.CON.KGSP.HW.W.0002.230304T0000Z-230304T1500Z/
Avery-Yancey-Mitchell-Caldwell Mountains-Burke Mountains-
McDowell Mountains-
Including the cities of Ingalls, Banner Elk, Newland, Swiss, 
Burnsville, Celo, Micaville, Ramseytown, Busick, Spruce Pine, 
Poplar, Jonas Ridge, Ashford, Woodlawn, and Old Fort
657 PM EST Fri Mar 3 2023

...HIGH WIND WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 AM EST SATURDAY...
...WIND ADVISORY WILL EXPIRE AT 7 PM EST THIS EVENING...

* WHAT...West winds 25 to 35 mph with gusts up to 60 mph 
  expected.

* WHERE...Avery, Yancey, Mitchell, Caldwell Mountains, Burke 
  Mountains and McDowell Mountains Counties.

* WHEN...Until 10 AM EST Saturday.

* IMPACTS...Damaging winds will blow down trees and power lines. 
  Widespread power outages are expected. Travel will be 
  difficult, especially for high profile vehicles.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

People should avoid being outside in forested areas and around
trees and branches. If possible, remain in the lower levels of
your home during the windstorm, and avoid windows. Use caution if
you must drive.

&&

$$

NCZ048-051>053-058-059-062>065-040800-
/O.CON.KGSP.WI.Y.0009.000000T0000Z-230304T1200Z/
Madison-Swain-Haywood-Buncombe-Graham-Northern Jackson-Macon-
Southern Jackson-Transylvania-Henderson-
Including the cities of Faust, Mars Hill, Marshall, Walnut, 
Allenstand, Hot Springs, Luck, Alarka, Almond, Bryson City, 
Luada, Wesser, Waynesville, Waterville, Canton, Cruso, 
Cove Creek, Asheville, Black Mountain, Candler, Robbinsville, 
Stecoah, Cullowhee, Tuckasegee, Sylva, Franklin, Rainbow Springs,
Kyle, Highlands, Wolf Mountain, Cashiers, Brevard, 
Cedar Mountain, Little River, Hendersonville, Fletcher, Dana, 
East Flat Rock, Tuxedo, and Etowah
657 PM EST Fri Mar 3 2023

...WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 AM EST SATURDAY...

* WHAT...West winds 20 to 30 mph with gusts up to 50 mph.

* WHERE...Madison, Swain, Haywood, Buncombe, Graham, Northern 
  Jackson, Macon, Southern Jackson, Transylvania and Henderson 
  Counties.

* WHEN...Until 7 AM EST Saturday.

* IMPACTS...Gusty winds could blow around unsecured objects. 
  Tree limbs could be blown down and a few power outages may 
  result.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Use extra caution when driving, especially if operating a high
profile vehicle. Secure outdoor objects.

&&

$$

GAZ010-017-018-026-028-029-NCZ068>072-082-507>510-SCZ008>014-019-
101>109-040600-
/O.CON.KGSP.WI.Y.0009.000000T0000Z-230304T0600Z/
Rabun-Habersham-Stephens-Franklin-Hart-Elbert-Cleveland-Lincoln-
Gaston-Mecklenburg-Cabarrus-Union NC-Rutherford Mountains-
Greater Rutherford-Polk Mountains-Eastern Polk-Cherokee-York-
Anderson-Abbeville-Laurens-Union SC-Chester-Greenwood-
Oconee Mountains-Pickens Mountains-Greenville Mountains-
Greater Oconee-Greater Pickens-Central Greenville-
Southern Greenville-Northern Spartanburg-Southern Spartanburg-
Including the cities of Clayton, Pine Mountain, Mountain City, 
Cornelia, Demorest, Clarkesville, Hollywood, Boydville, Toccoa, 
Royston, Gumlog, Lavonia, Franklin Springs, Canon, Hartwell, 
Nuberg, Reed Creek, Elberton, Fortsonia, Middleton, Ruckersville,
Shelby, Kings Mountain, Lincolnton, Crouse, Gastonia, Charlotte, 
Huntersville, Matthews, Concord, Kannapolis, Monroe, Trinity, 
Indian Trail, Weddington, Chimney Rock State Park, Forest City, 
Rutherfordton, Spindale, Saluda, Tryon, Columbus, Mill Spring, 
Gaffney, Catawba, Rock Hill, Anderson, Abbeville, Calhoun Falls, 
Laurens, Clinton, Union, Monarch Mills, Chester, Cornwell, 
Great Falls, Ware Shoals, Ninety Six, Mountain Rest, 
Rocky Bottom, Glassy Mountain, Seneca, Walhalla, Oakway, 
Westminster, Easley, Dacusville, Clemson, Greenville, Taylors, 
Greer, Berea, Mauldin, Fork Shoals, Simpsonville, Fountain Inn, 
Boiling Springs Sc, Fingerville, Duncan, Lyman, Landrum, 
Wellford, Inman, and Spartanburg
657 PM EST Fri Mar 3 2023

...WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1 AM EST SATURDAY...

* WHAT...Southwest winds 15 to 30 mph with gusts up to 40 to 50
  mph. 

* WHERE...Northeast Georgia, Upstate South Carolina, and the
  southern foothills and piedmont of North Carolina.

* WHEN...Until 1 AM EST Saturday.

* IMPACTS...Gusty winds could blow around unsecured objects. 
  Tree limbs could be blown down and a few power outages may 
  result.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Use extra caution when driving, especially if operating a high
profile vehicle. Secure outdoor objects.

&&

$$

671 
WWUS72 KGSP 040320
NPWGSP

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
1020 PM EST Fri Mar 3 2023

GAZ010-017-018-026-028-029-NCZ068>072-082-507>510-SCZ008>014-019-
101>109-040430-
/O.CAN.KGSP.WI.Y.0009.000000T0000Z-230304T0600Z/
Rabun-Habersham-Stephens-Franklin-Hart-Elbert-Cleveland-Lincoln-
Gaston-Mecklenburg-Cabarrus-Union NC-Rutherford Mountains-
Greater Rutherford-Polk Mountains-Eastern Polk-Cherokee-York-
Anderson-Abbeville-Laurens-Union SC-Chester-Greenwood-
Oconee Mountains-Pickens Mountains-Greenville Mountains-
Greater Oconee-Greater Pickens-Central Greenville-
Southern Greenville-Northern Spartanburg-Southern Spartanburg-
1020 PM EST Fri Mar 3 2023

...WIND ADVISORY IS CANCELLED...

Winds have diminished across the are this evening. Occasional
gusts will continue overnight but mainly below 30 mph.

$$

NCZ033-049-050-501-503-505-041130-
/O.CON.KGSP.HW.W.0002.000000T0000Z-230304T1500Z/
Avery-Yancey-Mitchell-Caldwell Mountains-Burke Mountains-
McDowell Mountains-
Including the cities of Ingalls, Banner Elk, Newland, Swiss, 
Burnsville, Celo, Micaville, Ramseytown, Busick, Spruce Pine, 
Poplar, Jonas Ridge, Ashford, Woodlawn, and Old Fort
1020 PM EST Fri Mar 3 2023

...HIGH WIND WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 AM EST SATURDAY...

* WHAT...Northwest winds 20 to 35 mph with gusts up to 60 mph.

* WHERE...Avery, Yancey, Mitchell, Caldwell Mountains, Burke 
  Mountains and McDowell Mountains Counties.

* WHEN...Until 10 AM EST Saturday.

* IMPACTS...Damaging winds will blow down trees and power lines. 
  Widespread power outages are expected. Travel will be 
  difficult, especially for high profile vehicles.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

People should avoid being outside in forested areas and around
trees and branches. If possible, remain in the lower levels of
your home during the windstorm, and avoid windows. Use caution if
you must drive.

&&

$$

NCZ048-051>053-058-059-062>065-041130-
/O.CON.KGSP.WI.Y.0009.000000T0000Z-230304T1200Z/
Madison-Swain-Haywood-Buncombe-Graham-Northern Jackson-Macon-
Southern Jackson-Transylvania-Henderson-
Including the cities of Faust, Mars Hill, Marshall, Walnut, 
Allenstand, Hot Springs, Luck, Alarka, Almond, Bryson City, 
Luada, Wesser, Waynesville, Waterville, Canton, Cruso, 
Cove Creek, Asheville, Black Mountain, Candler, Robbinsville, 
Stecoah, Cullowhee, Tuckasegee, Sylva, Franklin, Rainbow Springs,
Kyle, Highlands, Wolf Mountain, Cashiers, Brevard, 
Cedar Mountain, Little River, Hendersonville, Fletcher, Dana, 
East Flat Rock, Tuxedo, and Etowah
1020 PM EST Fri Mar 3 2023

...WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 AM EST SATURDAY...

* WHAT...Northwest winds 15 to 25 mph with gusts up 40 to 50 mph. 

* WHERE...Madison, Swain, Haywood, Buncombe, Graham, Northern 
  Jackson, Macon, Southern Jackson, Transylvania and Henderson 
  Counties.

* WHEN...Until 7 AM EST Saturday.

* IMPACTS...Gusty winds could blow around unsecured objects. 
  Tree limbs could be blown down and a few power outages may 
  result.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Use extra caution when driving, especially if operating a high
profile vehicle. Secure outdoor objects.

&&

$$

816 
WWUS72 KGSP 040704
NPWGSP

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
204 AM EST Sat Mar 4 2023

NCZ051-058-062-040815-
/O.CAN.KGSP.WI.Y.0009.000000T0000Z-230304T1200Z/
Swain-Graham-Macon-
204 AM EST Sat Mar 4 2023

...WIND ADVISORY IS CANCELLED...

Winds continue to steadily diminish early this morning over the
southwest mountains of western North Carolina. Wind gusts should
be generally 30 mph or less through daybreak, so the Wind Advisory
has been cancelled across Swain, Graham, and Macon Counties. 

$$

NCZ033-049-050-501-503-505-041500-
/O.CON.KGSP.HW.W.0002.000000T0000Z-230304T1500Z/
Avery-Yancey-Mitchell-Caldwell Mountains-Burke Mountains-
McDowell Mountains-
Including the cities of Ingalls, Banner Elk, Newland, Swiss, 
Burnsville, Celo, Micaville, Ramseytown, Busick, Spruce Pine, 
Poplar, Jonas Ridge, Ashford, Woodlawn, and Old Fort
204 AM EST Sat Mar 4 2023

...HIGH WIND WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 AM EST THIS
MORNING...

* WHAT...Northwest winds 20 to 30 mph with gusts of 50 to 60 mph
  at times, especially along the higher peaks. 

* WHERE...Avery, Yancey, Mitchell, and mountain portions of
  Caldwell, Burke, and McDowell Counties.

* WHEN...Until 10 AM EST this morning.

* IMPACTS...Damaging winds will blow down trees and power lines. 
  Widespread power outages are expected. Travel will be 
  difficult, especially for high profile vehicles.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

People should avoid being outside in forested areas and around
trees and branches. If possible, remain in the lower levels of
your home during the windstorm, and avoid windows. Use caution if
you must drive.

&&

$$

NCZ048-052-053-059-063>065-041200-
/O.CON.KGSP.WI.Y.0009.000000T0000Z-230304T1200Z/
Madison-Haywood-Buncombe-Northern Jackson-Southern Jackson-
Transylvania-Henderson-
Including the cities of Faust, Mars Hill, Marshall, Walnut, 
Allenstand, Hot Springs, Luck, Waynesville, Waterville, Canton, 
Cruso, Cove Creek, Asheville, Black Mountain, Candler, Cullowhee,
Tuckasegee, Sylva, Wolf Mountain, Cashiers, Brevard, 
Cedar Mountain, Little River, Hendersonville, Fletcher, Dana, 
East Flat Rock, Tuxedo, and Etowah
204 AM EST Sat Mar 4 2023

...WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 AM EST THIS MORNING...

* WHAT...Northwest winds 15 to 25 mph with gusts up to 45 mph.

* WHERE...Madison, Haywood, Buncombe, Jackson, Jackson, 
  Transylvania and Henderson Counties.

* WHEN...Until 7 AM EST this morning.

* IMPACTS...Gusty winds could blow around unsecured objects. 
  Tree limbs could be blown down and a few power outages may 
  result.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Use extra caution when driving, especially if operating a high
profile vehicle. Secure outdoor objects.

&&

$$

HG

260 
WWUS72 KGSP 040800
NPWGSP

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
300 AM EST Sat Mar 4 2023

NCZ033-049-050-501-503-505-041500-
/O.CAN.KGSP.HW.W.0002.000000T0000Z-230304T1500Z/
/O.EXB.KGSP.WI.Y.0009.000000T0000Z-230304T1500Z/
Avery-Yancey-Mitchell-Caldwell Mountains-Burke Mountains-
McDowell Mountains-
Including the cities of Ingalls, Banner Elk, Newland, Swiss, 
Burnsville, Celo, Micaville, Ramseytown, Busick, Spruce Pine, 
Poplar, Jonas Ridge, Ashford, Woodlawn, and Old Fort
300 AM EST Sat Mar 4 2023

...WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 AM EST THIS MORNING...

* WHAT...Northwest winds 20 to 30 mph with gusts up to 50 mph.

* WHERE...Avery, Yancey, Mitchell, and mountain portions of
  Caldwell, Burke, and McDowell Counties.

* WHEN...Until 10 AM EST this morning.

* IMPACTS...Gusty winds could blow around unsecured objects. 
  Tree limbs could be blown down and a few power outages may 
  result.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Use extra caution when driving, especially if operating a high
profile vehicle. Secure outdoor objects.

&&

$$

NCZ052-059-063-040900-
/O.CAN.KGSP.WI.Y.0009.000000T0000Z-230304T1200Z/
Haywood-Northern Jackson-Southern Jackson-
300 AM EST Sat Mar 4 2023

...WIND ADVISORY IS CANCELLED...

Winds continue to steadily diminish this morning across Haywood
and Jackson Counties. Gusts to 30 mph will still be possible,
especially along the higher ridges, but the Wind Advisory for
stronger gusts has been cancelled. 

$$

NCZ048-053-064-065-041200-
/O.CON.KGSP.WI.Y.0009.000000T0000Z-230304T1200Z/
Madison-Buncombe-Transylvania-Henderson-
Including the cities of Faust, Mars Hill, Marshall, Walnut, 
Allenstand, Hot Springs, Luck, Asheville, Black Mountain, 
Candler, Brevard, Cedar Mountain, Little River, Hendersonville, 
Fletcher, Dana, East Flat Rock, Tuxedo, and Etowah
300 AM EST Sat Mar 4 2023

...WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 AM EST THIS MORNING...

* WHAT...Northwest winds 15 to 25 mph with gusts up to 45 mph.

* WHERE...Madison, Buncombe, Transylvania, and Henderson Counties,
  especially at the higher elevations.

* WHEN...Until 7 AM EST this morning.

* IMPACTS...Gusty winds could blow around unsecured objects. 
  Tree limbs could be blown down and a few power outages may 
  result.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Use extra caution when driving, especially if operating a high
profile vehicle. Secure outdoor objects.

&&

$$

HG

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
244 AM EST Fri Mar 3 2023

.SYNOPSIS...
A strong cold front will cross the region from the west late this
afternoon through this evening, bringing the potential for severe
thunderstorms to the area. Dry high pressure will arrive over the
weekend and linger into the first part of next week. Another cold
front will arrive Tuesday, and stall south of the area for the
middle of the week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
As of 245 am EST: A 500 mb cutoff low over TX/OK early this morning
will lift over the mid-Mississippi River Valley this afternoon, and
then move north of the Ohio Valley by early evening. An associated
surface cold front ahead of this system will run quickly east across
the Mid/Deep South this afternoon and reach the base of the southern
Appalachians circa 21Z. Ahead of the cold front, a warm frontal
boundary will linger near the northern tier of the forecast area,
but with steady erosion of any surface based stable layer under
increasingly robust southerly flow through the day. Anticipate
periods of showers in the largely warm sector airmass over the
region through the day ahead of the main convective activity slated
to arrive later in the day.

Good agreement contintues with regard to timing among the convection
allowing models, with the main line arriving in western sections
circa 20Z and exiting east of the I-77 corridor area around 02Z.
This is in line with the period of peak frontal zone forcing on the
synoptic models. The core of the most intense 850 mb jet, some 70+
kt, will cross mainly over TN/KY late day, with a secondary low-
level jet of 60+ kt ahead of the frontal zone riding across the
western Carolinas/NE GA. Robust shear will result for our area, with
sfc-3km bulk shear values near 70 kt, sfc-6km bulk shear near 90 kt,
and surface winds slightly backed to enhance low-level helicity. The
best plume of 60 to 65 degree surface dewpoints ahead of the front
will push across NE GA/western SC Upstate by 22Z. This will provide
the best surface-based instability of the event, with peak sbCAPE
likely reaching 1000+ J/kg. The combination of high shear, modest
instability, and the hodograph appearance suggests the potential for
straight line wind damage along with a few tornadoes, especially in
southwest sections and near the Smokies where higher dewpoints means
lower LCLs.

Strong gradient winds will also be an issue in the near term, with
any measure of modest mixing tapping into the strong flow off the
deck in the warm advection, and then equally gusty winds in the post
fropa cold advection later this evening into tonight. The current
Wind Advisory will be expanded eastward to NE GA, Upstate SC, and
the southern tier of the NC foothills/piedmont where mixing is
better. The I-40 corridor could need an Advisory, but confidence on
mixing is lower there. In addition, a High Wind Warning will be
posted for the NC northern mountains tonight into Saturday morning
with the peak cold advection flow reaching 50 to 60kt at 850 mb.
Post-fropa northwest flow moisture should generate upslope clouds
overnight in the western mountains, but precipitation should be
limited given the shallow moisture.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
As of 200 AM EST Friday....Primarily zonal upper flow will
persist thru the short term, with a little upper ridging across
the Southeast by 12z Monday. Saturday will start out windy in the
mountains, with a stratocu deck banking up against the western
slopes of the Southern Appalachians within strong NWLY low-level
flow. The winds and clouds should decrease thru the morning hours,
as sfc low pressure drifts further NE away from the area. Mild
high pressure quickly builds in from the west, with the center
reaching the Central Appalachians by 12z Sunday. Highs will be
5-8 deg above normal, except near to slightly below normal along
the TN border Saturday. Good radiational cooling conditions will
allow temps to fall into the 30s to lower 40s, which is still a
few deg above normal. Sunny skies and light wind will make for
a pleasant day Sunday with highs mainly in the 60s. Lows Sunday
night a category or two warmer than Saturday night.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
As of 230 AM EST Friday...The 00z deterministic model guidance
has come into better agreement on the overall weather pattern
for most of the medium range, but they seem to be drier than the
ensemble means and the NBM. The 12z ECMWF was particularly wet thru
the period, while the GFS is mostly dry until Thursday night. So
with that said, the PoPs for Wednesday thru Wednesday night may be
overdone, if the model trends hold. But for now, the thinking is a
relatively weak, dry cold front will cross the area early Tuesday,
bringing a chance of showers mainly in the mountains. The front
stalls out across the Deep South, while a strong sfc high noses
down from Midwest. The upper flow remains fairly zonal, so there is
some uncertainty on how far south the front gets, and with ripples
of energy riding thru the flow, could see a wave develop along
that front and spread moisture back over the area. Temperatures
will be well above normal ahead of the front Monday thru Tuesday,
then down to around normal Wednesday.

Later in the week, a vigorous upper trough ejects out of the
Rockies, and induces cyclogenesis along the stalled front somewhere
across the Southern Plains or Southeast. The models disagree on
the details, but all have unsettled weather across the forecast
area Thursday thru Friday. The air to the north of this system
will be cold, so wintry precip in the mountains is possible, but
still too murky to say if anything but rain will fall outside the
mountains. Some the guidance hints at possible snow, if a solid
Miller Type-A cyclone forms, like the 00z Canadian. While the
00z ECMWF has more of a Miller-B-ish type storm, but is too warm
for wintry p-type concerns until NW flow on the back side of the
system. And the GFS is the coldest of the three, but is rather
weak with the low. All this to say, it could be an interesting
system for parts of the eastern US. For now, will feature chc
PoPs, with some snow mention in the higher elevations, and rain
elsewhere. Lows will be near normal, while highs will be below
normal under plenty of cloud cover, and possible CAD.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
At KCLT and elsewhere: Shower coverage continues to become fairly
widespread over most of the terminal forecast area early this
morning, with ceiling values steadily dropping through the VFR
range. MVFR cigs will become solid in most areas before daybreak,
with at least a TEMPO window of IFR lasting well into the morning
hours. Southerly mixing will improve from late morning through the
afternoon, with robust gusts of 20 to 30 kt developing. Will hold
onto VCSH or -SHRA mention through the day and then focus the PROB30
for TSRA mainly in the 20Z to 01Z time period. Severe thunderstorms
are possible with the main convective line late day. Winds will veer
to WSW east of the mountains late in the period, NW at KAVL, and
remain very gusty as the deep warm advection mixing turns to strong
post-fropa cold advection flow. Any residual low cigs should scatter
quickly with fropa, with showers and thunderstorms ending.

Outlook: Dry and somewhat cooler high pressure with diminishing
winds returns for the weekend, with VFR conditions prevailing
through Monday. A frontal system may bring precipitation and
restrictions back to the region on Tuesday, but more likely on
Wednesday.

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...Wind Advisory from 1 PM this afternoon to 1 AM EST Saturday
     for GAZ010-017-018-026-028-029.
NC...Wind Advisory from 1 PM this afternoon to 1 AM EST Saturday
     for NCZ068>072-082-507>510.
     Wind Advisory from 1 PM this afternoon to 7 PM EST this
     evening for NCZ033-049-050-501-503-505.
     High Wind Warning from 7 PM this evening to 10 AM EST Saturday
     for NCZ033-049-050-501-503-505.
     Wind Advisory from 1 PM this afternoon to 7 AM EST Saturday
     for NCZ048-051>053-058-059-062>065.
SC...Wind Advisory from 1 PM this afternoon to 1 AM EST Saturday
     for SCZ008>014-019-101>109.

&&

SYNOPSIS...ARK/HG
NEAR TERM...HG
SHORT TERM...ARK
LONG TERM...ARK
AVIATION...HG

Hazardous Weather Outlook...CORRECTED
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
425 PM EST Thu Mar 2 2023

NCZ033-048>053-058-059-062>065-501-503-505-032000-
Avery-Madison-Yancey-Mitchell-Swain-Haywood-Buncombe-Graham-
Northern Jackson-Macon-Southern Jackson-Transylvania-Henderson-
Caldwell Mountains-Burke Mountains-McDowell Mountains-
425 PM EST Thu Mar 2 2023

...WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 1 PM FRIDAY TO 7 AM EST SATURDAY...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for western North Carolina.

.DAY ONE...This afternoon and tonight.

Hazardous weather is not expected at this time.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Wednesday.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Wind Advisory.

Also, a strong cold front is expected to move into the forecast area
by Friday afternoon. Conditions will be sufficient for development
of scattered strong to severe thunderstorms, which will move quickly
across the forecast area from west to east. Damaging winds appear to
be the primary threat with these thunderstorms, with a secondary
threat of tornadoes, which most likely would be short-lived. The
severe weather threat will taper off Friday evening.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation may be needed Friday. Please relay any
information about observed severe weather to the National Weather
Service.

GAZ010-017-018-026-028-029-NCZ035>037-056-057-068>072-082-502-504-
506>510-SCZ008>014-019-101>109-032000-
Rabun-Habersham-Stephens-Franklin-Hart-Elbert-Alexander-Iredell-
Davie-Catawba-Rowan-Cleveland-Lincoln-Gaston-Mecklenburg-Cabarrus-
Union NC-Greater Caldwell-Greater Burke-Eastern McDowell-
Rutherford Mountains-Greater Rutherford-Polk Mountains-Eastern Polk-
Cherokee-York-Anderson-Abbeville-Laurens-Union SC-Chester-Greenwood-
Oconee Mountains-Pickens Mountains-Greenville Mountains-
Greater Oconee-Greater Pickens-Central Greenville-
Southern Greenville-Northern Spartanburg-Southern Spartanburg-
425 PM EST Thu Mar 2 2023

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for northeast Georgia, piedmont
North Carolina, western North Carolina and upstate South Carolina.

.DAY ONE...This afternoon and tonight.

Hazardous weather is not expected at this time.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Wednesday.

A strong cold front is expected to move into the forecast area by
Friday afternoon. Conditions will be sufficient for development of
scattered strong to severe thunderstorms, which will move quickly
across the forecast area from west to east. Damaging winds appear to
be the primary threat with these thunderstorms, with a secondary
threat of tornadoes, which most likely would be short-lived. The
severe weather threat will taper off Friday evening or move east of
the forecast area.

Strong, potentially damaging winds are possible on Friday night and
early Saturday morning.  These winds may be strong enough to knock
down a few small trees or power lines, and may cause damage to some
structures.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation may be needed Friday. Please relay any
information about observed severe weather to the National Weather
Service.

Wimberley