Severe Thunderstorm Warning 99, NWS Goodland, KS

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Goodland KS
339 PM MDT Fri Jun 9 2023

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Sunday Night)
Issued at 338 PM MDT Fri Jun 9 2023

At the start of the short term period, the latest upper air RAP
analysis shows the CWA having a south-southeasterly flow aloft being
underneath the back end of a ridge with an upper air low over south
ID. Current radar imagery and surface observations show showers and
storms occurring mostly from Goodland to Hoxie to Norton with some
isolated showers along I-70. Models show the upper air pattern
pretty much staying the same going into the evening with a shortwave
disturbance traveling through the flow over the CWA. At the surface,
models show this first round of showers and storms to continue to
develop along a stationary boundary cutting across the eastern half
of the CWA. In the evening, models show a surface low moving into
western KS bringing another round of showers and storms into the CWA
as they develop in CO and move eastward across the rest of the CWA
though they look to be mostly along and south of I-70. With SBCAPE
values continuing to be around 1000 J/kg or above, the severe
weather concern continues though the bulk shear values continue to
be low (10-20 kts). Large hail up to ping pong balls as well as
strong wind gusts look to continue to be a threat. Another concern
is for potential flash flooding with areas east of the CO border
seeing PWAT values of 1 to 1.2 inches. So will continue to monitor
for potential flooding through tonight with storms currently moving
slowly and lingering in some areas. Overnight lows look to be in the
lower 50s to the lower 60s.

Going into Saturday, models show a weak upper air low developing
over the CWA by the evening hours within the ridge while an upper
air low travels just west of southern CA and another stronger upper
air low moves over the Great Lakes region. Another shortwave
disturbance is seen traveling through the flow of the CWA during the
evening as well. At the surface, chances for showers and storms look
to continue for another day with cold front moving through the CWA
during the day. Models show bulk shear values starting in the
afternoon similar to the previous day, but increasing to around the
30 kt range particularly in the south going into the evening and
late evening hours. SBCAPE values look to be in around 1000 J/kg in
the west and increase to around 2000 J/kg during the evening. SPC
has a marginal risk for severe weather for the entire CWA which
looks to be reasonable at this time with storms that develop on
Saturday. Large hail and strong winds look to be the potential
threats. PWAT values look to be under an inch, so perhaps the
flooding concern may be a lesser by a bit compared to the previous
day. Will monitor for better timing of the frontal passage along
with the precipitation in future forecasts. Daytime highs expect to
range between the upper 70s and upper 80s followed by Saturday
night's lows in the lower 50s to lower 60s.

For Sunday, forecast guidance shows the CWA underneath a weak
amplitude ridge throughout the day being between the western low
that has now moved over southern CA and the northeastern upper air
low still over the Great Lakes. A shortwave trough is seen passing
through the flow over the western CWA during the evening. At the
surface, the CWA looks to be in a post frontal environment with
SBCAPE values under 1000 J/kg for most of the area. However, models
show better bulk shear values around 30 kts. Models show another day
for chances for showers and thunderstorms, but mostly for the
western half of the CWA with the aforementioned trough passing over
the region. Severe weather potential looks to be low at this time,
but may need to watch for potential flash flooding concerns with
PWAT values above 1 inch in some locations. Daytime highs look to
cool to between the upper 60s and the upper 70s after the previous
day's frontal passage with overnight lows in the lower to middle 50s.

.LONG TERM...(Monday through Friday)
Issued at 159 PM MDT Fri Jun 9 2023

Active weather continues with chances for showers and storms. Below
normal temperatures are expected to start the week, before warming
back up closer to normal.

The upper pattern at the start of the long term period has the area
sandwiched between two low pressure systems - one over the Great
Lakes region and another over the southwestern CONUS. Westerly flow
backs to the southwest with the nearing trough in the Tuesday
timeframe. Flow returns west-northwest for the latter half of the
work week as that system slides southeast.

PWAT values throughout the period remain generally around 0.75 to an
inch, closer to 1.25 inches for eastern portions at times. Best
chances for showers and storms currently expected at the beginning
of the week before trailing off towards the latter part, though
confidence also decreases past this range. Will need to continue to
monitor for severe potential given the active pattern and better
shear to work with than in recent days.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Saturday afternoon)
Issued at 1136 AM MDT Fri Jun 9 2023

KGLD...VFR conditions are expected throughout the 18Z TAF period
starting with variable winds around 6 kts that might see brief
periods of west-southwesterly winds around 11 kts. By 21Z, KGLD
sees vicinity thunderstorm chances starting before winds become
southeasterly around around 10 kts at 00Z and then southerly at
03Z. At 07Z, precipitation chances end for KGLD with winds
becoming westerly around 7 kts before winds become northwesterly
at 15Z.

KMCK...VFR conditions are seen at KMCK during the 18Z TAF period
beginning with variable winds around 6 kts that become southerly
around 8 kts at 21Z when vicinity thunderstorm chances begin. By
02Z, there looks to be a brief lull in precipitation chances as
winds veer to southwesterly before precipitation chances resume at
05Z with winds continuing to veer. By 09Z, KMCK will see storm
chances end with winds becoming variable around 6 kts.

Time on precipitation start chances still might be a little
uncertain, but not anticipating any precipitation to change flight
conditions. Will continue to monitor and amend TAFS as needed.

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...076
LONG TERM...CC
AVIATION...076

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Goodland KS
1206 PM MDT Fri Jun 9 2023

COZ090>092-KSZ001>004-013>016-027>029-041-042-NEZ079>081-101815-
Yuma-Kit Carson-Cheyenne-Rawlins-Decatur-Norton-Sherman-Thomas-
Sheridan-Graham-Wallace-Logan-Gove-Greeley-Wichita-Dundy-Hitchcock-
Red Willow-
1206 PM MDT Fri Jun 9 2023 /106 PM CDT Fri Jun 9 2023/

This hazardous weather outlook is for extreme southwest Nebraska...
northwest Kansas and east central Colorado.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT...

A few strong to severe thunderstorms are expected this afternoon
going into the night. The primary hazards include hail up to one
inch in diameter, wind gusts up to 65 mph, and locally heavy rainfall
which could produce flash flooding. The area of greatest concern is
generally along and south of Nebraska border.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...

There will be a continued risk for flooding from prolonged heavy
rainfall with any storms that develop during the weekend into early
next week. A few strong to severe thunderstorms can not be
completely ruled out Saturday and Sunday.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected. We would appreciate reports of
severe weather and heavy rainfall via telephone and social media.

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