Severe Thunderstorm Warning 97, NWS Goodland, KS

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Goodland KS
1145 AM MDT Fri Jun 9 2023

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Sunday night)
Issued at 305 AM MDT Fri Jun 9 2023

Today-tonight...the forecast area is caught in an elongated north to
south upper ridge axis, in between low pressure off the coast of
California and northeast portion of the country. PWAT values today
range from 0.80 to 1.30 inches, falling slightly to 0.70 to 1.20
inches. With 0-6km winds from the southwest at 10 to maybe 20kts any
storm will be capable and efficient in producing locally heavy
rainfall. Similar scenario tonight with 0-6km winds slowly veering
to the northwest and decreasing to speeds under 10kts.

Presently, given a lack of convective inhibition, it wont take much
heating to get showers and thunderstorms going. Best time for this
looks to be the typical very early afternoon through evening hours
for any spot in the area, decreasing from west to east through the
night. Along with locally heavy rainfall, the stronger storms could
produce large hail and damaging wind gusts. Its possible that
isolated storms develop during the time of peak heating with a bit
more organized threat moving through from west to east from around 5
PM MDT through midnight MDT.

High temperatures are forecast to be in the lower 80s to lower 90s.
Low temperatures are forecast to be in the lower 50s to around 60.

Saturday-Saturday night...we'll be looking at isolated to scattered
thunderstorms during the late morning through afternoon hours as
slightly cooler air and a shift in the winds moves through. Chance
to likely pops move in from the north during the night as deeper
moisture moves in. Not much change in PWAT values when compared to
Friday/Friday night with 0-6km winds from the northwest 10-20 mph
during the day, increasing up to 25kts during the night.

High temperatures are forecast to be in the middle 70s to middle
80s. Low temperatures are forecast to be in the lower 50s to around
60.

Sunday-Sunday night...we'll be watching for showers and
thunderstorms to move off the Colorado front range and into far
eastern Colorado during the afternoon, continuing east during the
night. Favorable upper jet divergence suggests possible MCS type
event, mainly along and north of I-70. PWAT values during the night
up to 1.30 inches with 0-6km winds generally from the west or west-
southwest around 20kts.

High temperatures are forecast to be in the middle 60s to middle 70
with low temperatures in the lower 50s.

.LONG TERM...(Monday through Thursday)
Issued at 212 AM MDT Fri Jun 9 2023

The long term period continues to look active with an upper trough
moving near the area during the beginning of the week. However,
there is also a lot of uncertainty as guidance struggles to resolve
the upper pattern through the entire period.

Starting with the uncertainty, guidance continues to show a fair
amount of spread in solutions mainly in regard to positioning and
timing. Almost all guidance now is showing the upper low over the
Western CONUS elongating into a positively tilted trough across the
SW CONUS during the beginning of the week. The main differences are
how far south the lower heights extend and how deep the trough will
be. From this a couple of scenarios emerge. The main one is that the
area sees persistent cloud cover and rain chances with the trough
extending and moving just west of the area. Another potential is a
more northern track may be able to advect some drier air in from the
southwest which would then lead to drier and warmer conditions.
Currently am sticking with the wetter and cooler scenario for now
based on ensemble spreads favoring a deeper more southern track of
the upper trough. Severe weather and flooding will be possible and
would currently lean towards flooding with persistent rain chances
and the potential for the trough to remain near the area for a
couple of days. But as we've been saying, keep watching for updates
and things slowly become more clear.

The remainder of the week has guidance in fits as it tries to
resolve how the upper trough moving through the area fits into the
flow downstream with the upper low over the Great Lakes Region and
what will move through the flow upstream. Based on how things
generally go and what I've seen from guidance the past few days, I
am leaning towards a transition period followed by another system
moving through. If so, the mid part of the week would warm back to
near seasonable temperatures in the mid 80's and low 50's along with
daily storm chances.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Saturday afternoon)
Issued at 1136 AM MDT Fri Jun 9 2023

KGLD...VFR conditions are expected throughout the 18Z TAF period
starting with variable winds around 6 kts that might see brief
periods of west-southwesterly winds around 11 kts. By 21Z, KGLD
sees vicinity thunderstorm chances starting before winds become
southeasterly around around 10 kts at 00Z and then southerly at
03Z. At 07Z, precipitation chances end for KGLD with winds
becoming westerly around 7 kts before winds become northwesterly
at 15Z.

KMCK...VFR conditions are seen at KMCK during the 18Z TAF period
beginning with variable winds around 6 kts that become southerly
around 8 kts at 21Z when vicinity thunderstorm chances begin. By
02Z, there looks to be a brief lull in precipitation chances as
winds veer to southwesterly before precipitation chances resume at
05Z with winds continuing to veer. By 09Z, KMCK will see storm
chances end with winds becoming variable around 6 kts.

Time on precipitation start chances still might be a little
uncertain, but not anticipating any precipitation to change flight
conditions. Will continue to monitor and amend TAFS as needed.

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...99
LONG TERM...KAK
AVIATION...076

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Goodland KS
1206 PM MDT Fri Jun 9 2023

COZ090>092-KSZ001>004-013>016-027>029-041-042-NEZ079>081-101815-
Yuma-Kit Carson-Cheyenne-Rawlins-Decatur-Norton-Sherman-Thomas-
Sheridan-Graham-Wallace-Logan-Gove-Greeley-Wichita-Dundy-Hitchcock-
Red Willow-
1206 PM MDT Fri Jun 9 2023 /106 PM CDT Fri Jun 9 2023/

This hazardous weather outlook is for extreme southwest Nebraska...
northwest Kansas and east central Colorado.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT...

A few strong to severe thunderstorms are expected this afternoon
going into the night. The primary hazards include hail up to one
inch in diameter, wind gusts up to 65 mph, and locally heavy rainfall
which could produce flash flooding. The area of greatest concern is
generally along and south of Nebraska border.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...

There will be a continued risk for flooding from prolonged heavy
rainfall with any storms that develop during the weekend into early
next week. A few strong to severe thunderstorms can not be
completely ruled out Saturday and Sunday.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected. We would appreciate reports of
severe weather and heavy rainfall via telephone and social media.

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