Severe Thunderstorm Warning 352, NWS Goodland, KS

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Goodland KS
500 PM MDT Tue Aug 8 2023

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Friday)
Issued at 115 PM MDT Tue Aug 8 2023

Shortwave trough evident on water vapor is traversing the Northern
Rockies this afternoon and will move across the forecast area
tonight. Thunderstorms are expected to initiate in southeast
Wyoming and northeast Colorado by late this afternoon and move
through areas north of Interstate 70 this evening and into the
overnight hours. The environment will be characterized by
instability of up to 3000 j/kg and deep layer shear of 40-50 kts,
the former slightly better compared to yesterday but the latter a
bit lower. These parameters are more than sufficient for another
round of thunderstorms with embedded supercells capable of
producing large hail, damaging winds and perhaps a few tornadoes.
Storms should merge into a cluster as they move into eastern
portions of the area later tonight with more or less the same
hazards, finally exiting the area to the east late tonight. In
addition to the severe hazards, some flash flooding will be
possible, mainly in areas that saw heavy rain last night where
soils are likely still saturated. However, not seeing any signals
in the models of a more widespread flooding threat. Finally,
patchy fog may develop in the wake of the storms around sunrise
Wednesday morning. Low temperatures will be in the 50s and 60s.

For Wednesday, there is a slight chance that some showers will
linger in eastern areas in the morning. Otherwise, the upper ridge
will build over the area from the Rockies resulting in dry
conditions. Temperatures will be similar to today with highs in
the upper 70s to lower 80s. Low temperatures Wednesday night will
be in the mid 50s to around 60.

On Thursday and Friday, the upper ridge will flatten with a weak zonal
flow across the plains. However, the ridge appears that it will
be close enough so the the main storm track will remain well north
of the area. As a result, there will be only low chances of
isolated afternoon and evening showers and thunderstorms. SPC has
only a general outlook with no severe storms expected either day
at this time. Temperatures will be warming up under the ridge,
with highs in the lower 90s on Thursday and low to mid 90s on
Friday.

.LONG TERM...(Saturday through Tuesday)
Issued at 115 PM MDT Tue Aug 8 2023

The upper ridge is forecast to slowly migrate from the Southern
Plains early in the period to the Desert Southwest late in the
period. As a result, the upper flow over the Central Plains will
gradually transition from zonal to northwest. This should
translate to a return to daily storm chances associated with
shortwaves rotating around the ridge. However, there is some
question over available moisture/instability for Sunday and Monday
as some models show drier air moving in from the north. There is
better moisture available by Tuesday with return flow in the lower
levels. Deep layer shear values appear to be limited to 30 kts or
less each day of this period, probably due to the weak flow aloft
under the ridge. This would limit the potential for severe storms
during the long term period. Overall, precipitation chances look
to be near or slightly below normal for the period. Temperatures
change little from day to day, with highs ranging from the upper
80s to lower 90s, which is near normal for mid August.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Wednesday evening)
Issued at 500 PM MDT Tue Aug 8 2023

GLD: Adverse aviation conditions associated with thunderstorms
are possible this evening and overnight.. mainly in the 02-08Z
time frame. Confidence is relatively high that the GLD terminal
will be impacted by storms at some point in the aforementioned
time frame. IFR stratus and/or fog may develop around or shortly
before sunrise Wednesday morning.. lasting (perhaps) a few hours..
dissipating by ~14-15Z. Confidence in fog/stratus development is
below average. VFR conditions will prevail thereafter.. through
the remainder of the TAF period. Breezy (15-25 knot) SSE winds
this afternoon will back to the ESE this evening. Winds may become
variable for a period of time overnight.. shifting to the N-NNW
at 10-15 knots after sunrise Wed morning.

MCK: Adverse aviation conditions associated with thunderstorms
are possible this evening and overnight.. mainly in the 02-08Z
time frame. Confidence is relatively high that the MCK terminal
will be impacted by storms at some point in the aforementioned
time frame. IFR stratus and/or fog may develop around or shortly
before sunrise Wednesday morning.. lasting (perhaps) a few hours..
dissipating by ~14-15Z. While confidence in fog/stratus
development is (overall) below average, dense fog was observed at
the MCK terminal this morning.. and confidence is relatively
higher at the MCK terminal (versus GLD). VFR conditions will
prevail thereafter.. through the remainder of the TAF period.
Breezy (15-25 knot) SSE winds this afternoon will back to the ESE
this evening. Winds may become variable for a period of time
overnight.. shifting to the N-NNW at 10-15 knots after sunrise Wed
morning.

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...Flood Watch until 2 AM MDT /3 AM CDT/ Wednesday for KSZ001>004-
     013>016-027>029-041-042.

CO...NONE.
NE...Flood Watch until 2 AM MDT /3 AM CDT/ Wednesday for NEZ079>081.

&&

SHORT TERM...024
LONG TERM...024
AVIATION...Vincent

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Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Goodland KS
828 PM MDT Tue Aug 8 2023

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0500 PM     Hail             7 N Abarr               39.95N 102.72W
08/08/2023  E2.75 inch       Yuma               CO   Public

            Delayed report via social media with
            picture. Time estimated.

&&

KMK

Preliminary Local Storm Report...Corrected
National Weather Service Goodland KS
829 PM MDT Tue Aug 8 2023

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0515 PM     Hail             7 N Abarr               39.95N 102.72W
08/08/2023  E2.75 inch       Yuma               CO   Public

            Corrects previous hail report from 7 N
            Abarr. Delayed report via social media with
            picture. Time estimated.

&&

KMK

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