Tornado Warning 52, NWS Goodland, KS

991 
WWUS53 KGLD 090045
SVSGLD

Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service Goodland KS
645 PM MDT Tue Aug 8 2023

COC063-125-090100-
/O.CON.KGLD.TO.W.0052.000000T0000Z-230809T0100Z/
Yuma CO-Kit Carson CO-
645 PM MDT Tue Aug 8 2023

...A TORNADO WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 700 PM MDT FOR
SOUTHWESTERN YUMA AND NORTH CENTRAL KIT CARSON COUNTIES...
    
At 645 PM MDT, a severe thunderstorm capable of producing a tornado
was located 13 miles northeast of Cope, or 25 miles south of Yuma,
moving south at 20 mph.

HAZARD...Tornado and two inch hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated rotation.

IMPACT...Flying debris will be dangerous to those caught without 
         shelter. Mobile homes will be damaged or destroyed. Damage 
         to roofs, windows, and vehicles will occur.  Tree damage is 
         likely.

Locations impacted include...
Kirk and Joes. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

TAKE COVER NOW! Move to a basement or an interior room on the lowest
floor of a sturdy building. Avoid windows. If you are outdoors, in a
mobile home, or in a vehicle, move to the closest substantial shelter
and protect yourself from flying debris.

&&

LAT...LON 3980 10276 3985 10247 3952 10236 3948 10273
TIME...MOT...LOC 0045Z 342DEG 17KT 3977 10262 

TORNADO...RADAR INDICATED
MAX HAIL SIZE...2.00 IN

$$

Lundquist

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Goodland KS
500 PM MDT Tue Aug 8 2023

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Friday)
Issued at 115 PM MDT Tue Aug 8 2023

Shortwave trough evident on water vapor is traversing the Northern
Rockies this afternoon and will move across the forecast area
tonight. Thunderstorms are expected to initiate in southeast
Wyoming and northeast Colorado by late this afternoon and move
through areas north of Interstate 70 this evening and into the
overnight hours. The environment will be characterized by
instability of up to 3000 j/kg and deep layer shear of 40-50 kts,
the former slightly better compared to yesterday but the latter a
bit lower. These parameters are more than sufficient for another
round of thunderstorms with embedded supercells capable of
producing large hail, damaging winds and perhaps a few tornadoes.
Storms should merge into a cluster as they move into eastern
portions of the area later tonight with more or less the same
hazards, finally exiting the area to the east late tonight. In
addition to the severe hazards, some flash flooding will be
possible, mainly in areas that saw heavy rain last night where
soils are likely still saturated. However, not seeing any signals
in the models of a more widespread flooding threat. Finally,
patchy fog may develop in the wake of the storms around sunrise
Wednesday morning. Low temperatures will be in the 50s and 60s.

For Wednesday, there is a slight chance that some showers will
linger in eastern areas in the morning. Otherwise, the upper ridge
will build over the area from the Rockies resulting in dry
conditions. Temperatures will be similar to today with highs in
the upper 70s to lower 80s. Low temperatures Wednesday night will
be in the mid 50s to around 60.

On Thursday and Friday, the upper ridge will flatten with a weak zonal
flow across the plains. However, the ridge appears that it will
be close enough so the the main storm track will remain well north
of the area. As a result, there will be only low chances of
isolated afternoon and evening showers and thunderstorms. SPC has
only a general outlook with no severe storms expected either day
at this time. Temperatures will be warming up under the ridge,
with highs in the lower 90s on Thursday and low to mid 90s on
Friday.

.LONG TERM...(Saturday through Tuesday)
Issued at 115 PM MDT Tue Aug 8 2023

The upper ridge is forecast to slowly migrate from the Southern
Plains early in the period to the Desert Southwest late in the
period. As a result, the upper flow over the Central Plains will
gradually transition from zonal to northwest. This should
translate to a return to daily storm chances associated with
shortwaves rotating around the ridge. However, there is some
question over available moisture/instability for Sunday and Monday
as some models show drier air moving in from the north. There is
better moisture available by Tuesday with return flow in the lower
levels. Deep layer shear values appear to be limited to 30 kts or
less each day of this period, probably due to the weak flow aloft
under the ridge. This would limit the potential for severe storms
during the long term period. Overall, precipitation chances look
to be near or slightly below normal for the period. Temperatures
change little from day to day, with highs ranging from the upper
80s to lower 90s, which is near normal for mid August.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Wednesday evening)
Issued at 500 PM MDT Tue Aug 8 2023

GLD: Adverse aviation conditions associated with thunderstorms
are possible this evening and overnight.. mainly in the 02-08Z
time frame. Confidence is relatively high that the GLD terminal
will be impacted by storms at some point in the aforementioned
time frame. IFR stratus and/or fog may develop around or shortly
before sunrise Wednesday morning.. lasting (perhaps) a few hours..
dissipating by ~14-15Z. Confidence in fog/stratus development is
below average. VFR conditions will prevail thereafter.. through
the remainder of the TAF period. Breezy (15-25 knot) SSE winds
this afternoon will back to the ESE this evening. Winds may become
variable for a period of time overnight.. shifting to the N-NNW
at 10-15 knots after sunrise Wed morning.

MCK: Adverse aviation conditions associated with thunderstorms
are possible this evening and overnight.. mainly in the 02-08Z
time frame. Confidence is relatively high that the MCK terminal
will be impacted by storms at some point in the aforementioned
time frame. IFR stratus and/or fog may develop around or shortly
before sunrise Wednesday morning.. lasting (perhaps) a few hours..
dissipating by ~14-15Z. While confidence in fog/stratus
development is (overall) below average, dense fog was observed at
the MCK terminal this morning.. and confidence is relatively
higher at the MCK terminal (versus GLD). VFR conditions will
prevail thereafter.. through the remainder of the TAF period.
Breezy (15-25 knot) SSE winds this afternoon will back to the ESE
this evening. Winds may become variable for a period of time
overnight.. shifting to the N-NNW at 10-15 knots after sunrise Wed
morning.

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...Flood Watch until 2 AM MDT /3 AM CDT/ Wednesday for KSZ001>004-
     013>016-027>029-041-042.

CO...NONE.
NE...Flood Watch until 2 AM MDT /3 AM CDT/ Wednesday for NEZ079>081.

&&

SHORT TERM...024
LONG TERM...024
AVIATION...Vincent

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Goodland KS
615 PM MDT Tue Aug 8 2023

COZ090>092-KSZ001>004-013>016-027>029-041-042-NEZ079>081-100015-
Yuma-Kit Carson-Cheyenne-Rawlins-Decatur-Norton-Sherman-Thomas-
Sheridan-Graham-Wallace-Logan-Gove-Greeley-Wichita-Dundy-Hitchcock-
Red Willow-
615 PM MDT Tue Aug 8 2023 /715 PM CDT Tue Aug 8 2023/

This hazardous weather outlook is for extreme southwest Nebraska...
northwest Kansas and east central Colorado.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT...

A Severe Thunderstorm Watch is in effect for portions of the area
until 10 PM MDT / 11 PM CDT this evening, mainly west and north of
Colby, Kansas.

A Flood Watch remains in effect this evening for portions of
southwest Nebraska and northwest Kansas.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...

For Friday on into next Tuesday, mainly afternoon and evening
thunderstorms are expected across the Tri State region.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotters are encouraged to report any severe or significant weather
to the National Weather Service in Goodland via telephone or social
media. We appreciate your reports!

Vincent

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Goodland KS
611 PM MDT Tue Aug 8 2023

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0606 PM     Tornado          2 NNE Abarr             39.87N 102.71W
08/08/2023                   Yuma               CO   Storm Chaser

            Brief tornado lasted about 2 minutes
            (6:08PM) roughly 2-3 miles NW of County Rds
            L and and 18 intersection.

&&

KMK

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Goodland KS
612 PM MDT Tue Aug 8 2023

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0545 PM     Hail             6 SSW Yuma              40.05N 102.77W
08/08/2023  E1.75 inch       Yuma               CO   Trained Spotter

            Up to golf ball hail observed. Power was out
            at the residence.

&&

KMK

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Goodland KS
622 PM MDT Tue Aug 8 2023

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0617 PM     Hail             7 N Abarr               39.95N 102.71W
08/08/2023  E1.50 inch       Yuma               CO   Public

            Report from mPING: Ping Pong Ball (1.50
            in.).

&&

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Goodland KS
623 PM MDT Tue Aug 8 2023

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0619 PM     Tstm Wnd Gst     1 ESE Abarr             39.85N 102.70W
08/08/2023  E60 MPH          Yuma               CO   Trained Spotter

&&

KMK

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Goodland KS
625 PM MDT Tue Aug 8 2023

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0619 PM     Tornado          5 SW Heartstrong        39.89N 102.63W
08/08/2023                   Yuma               CO   Storm Chaser

            Tornado just touched down via Chaser live
            feed. Location estimated via radar.

&&

KMK

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Goodland KS
632 PM MDT Tue Aug 8 2023

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0625 PM     Tornado          3 E Abarr               39.85N 102.66W
08/08/2023                   Yuma               CO   Storm Chaser

            Storm chasers were 7 miles north of Joes
            looking to the northwest. They commented
            they saw rope tornado for about a minute and
            a half, emerging out of rain shaft. Position
            estimated by radar.

&&