Flash Flood Warning 48, NWS Goodland, KS

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Goodland KS
414 PM MDT Sat Jun 17 2023

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Tuesday)
Issued at 130 PM MDT Sat Jun 17 2023

The set up for today is very similar to yesterday and expect that
it will evolve in much the same way. Thunderstorms have already
initiated along the Front Range and Palmer Divide, and will move
eastward, reaching the Kansas border area around 00z. They will
continue to move east southeast through this evening, exiting the
area by around 06z. Environmental parameters are similar, with
MLCAPE ranging from 1000-2000 j/kg, highest in the south, and deep
layer shear 20-30 kts, also highest in the south. The shear does
decrease rapidly this evening as the storms approach, and may
limit the severe risk somewhat compared to yesterday. The heavy
rain probabilities from the HREF are also a bit lower compared to
yesterday, but it will not take as much rain to cause flooding
because of last night's rainfall. Areas along and south of
Interstate 70 will see the greatest risk from severe storms,
mainly hail, and flooding due to heavy rain.

For Sunday and Monday, an upper ridge will build over the area
from the southern plains, resulting in dry conditions and warmer
temperatures. Highs on Sunday will reach the upper 80s and highs
on Monday will reach the lower to middle 90s.

Next chance for thunderstorms will be on Tuesday in eastern areas.
Models show a dry line setting up along/east of Highway 83 with
moderately unstable conditions and deep layer shear of 25-30 kts.
As the upper ridge axis move east, a shortwave trough will
approach from the southwest during the afternoon, providing
synoptic scale lift for thunderstorms. Given the environmental
parameters, there will be a risk for a few severe storms as well
as heavy rainfall, as right mover motion is forecast to be less
than 10 kts. West of the dry line, dry conditions are expected.
Temperatures will top out in the low to mid 90s once again,
perhaps a few upper 90s in eastern locations such as Hill City.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday through Saturday)
Issued at 110 PM MDT Sat Jun 17 2023

Another active pattern is looking possible in the long term with
afternoon and evening precipitation chances everyday.

A 250 mb ridge, with its axis running from southern Texas up into
west central Kansas, will remain fairly stationary. Combined with a
trough over the Western Coast, southwesterly upper level flow is
expected to dominate the Tri-State area in this period. Multiple
shortwaves, primarily in the 500 mb level, but showing up in nearly
every level, are expected to ripple through the southwesterly flow
and give us the forcing we need for the diurnal showers and storms.

Wednesday and Thursday evenings are showing signs of being more
impactful storms. Larger shortwaves look to move through the area
these days and a lee low, possibly two, will likely form and create
stronger forcing. PWATS of 1-1.5 inches are possible, which are over
the 75% for normal PWATS for this time of year. More so on
Wednesday, but both days are showing signs of the region warming
into the 80s and 90s which will help raise CAPE values. The 850 mb
LLJ looks to be flowing from the south during most of the period,
which will once again help the chances for storms.

After Thursday, guidance varies a lot more, but afternoon and
evening showers and storms are still possible.

The warmest day of the period will likely be Wednesday, with highs
in the mid 80s to 90s. Thursday will cool off a bit after the first
round of rain comes through, with highs remaining in the 80s to low
90s. Friday and Saturday, a gradually warming trend will occur and
we will return to the mid 80s to low 90s heading into the weekend.
Overnight lows will hover in the upper 50s to mid 60s, primarily
because of the southerly winds and increased moisture.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Sunday evening)
Issued at 400 PM MDT Sat Jun 17 2023

GLD: Adverse aviation conditions associated with thunderstorms are
possible at the beginning of the TAF period.. mainly in the 00-03Z
time frame. Otherwise.. VFR conditions are anticipated to prevail
through the TAF period. Aside from gusty/erratic winds invof any
thunderstorms, light and variable winds will prevail.

MCK: VFR conditions are anticipated to prevail through the TAF
period, with light and variable winds.

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...Flood Watch until midnight MDT /1 AM CDT/ tonight for KSZ013>016-
     027>029-041-042.

CO...Flood Watch until midnight MDT tonight for COZ091-092.

NE...NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...024
LONG TERM...CA
AVIATION...Vincent

<!doctype html>
<html lang="en">
<head>
  <meta charset="utf-8">
  <meta name="viewport" content="width=device-width, initial-scale=1">
  <title>Service Notice</title>
  <link rel="stylesheet" href="index.css">
</head>
<body>
  <main class="wrap">
    <section class="card" role="status" aria-live="polite">
      <div class="status" id="status">Temporary Notice</div>
      <h1 id="headline">This service is currently unavailable.</h1>
      <p id="message1">
        The site you requested is temporarily down for maintenance or an unexpected outage.
      </p>
      <p id="message2">
        Please try again in a few minutes.
      </p>
      <p class="small" id="detail">
        If you are an administrator, restore upstream service and remove the redirect/fallback rule when normal operations resume.
      </p>
    </section>
  </main>
  <script src="index.js"></script>
</body>
</html>

<!doctype html>
<html lang="en">
<head>
  <meta charset="utf-8">
  <meta name="viewport" content="width=device-width, initial-scale=1">
  <title>Service Notice</title>
  <link rel="stylesheet" href="index.css">
</head>
<body>
  <main class="wrap">
    <section class="card" role="status" aria-live="polite">
      <div class="status" id="status">Temporary Notice</div>
      <h1 id="headline">This service is currently unavailable.</h1>
      <p id="message1">
        The site you requested is temporarily down for maintenance or an unexpected outage.
      </p>
      <p id="message2">
        Please try again in a few minutes.
      </p>
      <p class="small" id="detail">
        If you are an administrator, restore upstream service and remove the redirect/fallback rule when normal operations resume.
      </p>
    </section>
  </main>
  <script src="index.js"></script>
</body>
</html>

<!doctype html>
<html lang="en">
<head>
  <meta charset="utf-8">
  <meta name="viewport" content="width=device-width, initial-scale=1">
  <title>Service Notice</title>
  <link rel="stylesheet" href="index.css">
</head>
<body>
  <main class="wrap">
    <section class="card" role="status" aria-live="polite">
      <div class="status" id="status">Temporary Notice</div>
      <h1 id="headline">This service is currently unavailable.</h1>
      <p id="message1">
        The site you requested is temporarily down for maintenance or an unexpected outage.
      </p>
      <p id="message2">
        Please try again in a few minutes.
      </p>
      <p class="small" id="detail">
        If you are an administrator, restore upstream service and remove the redirect/fallback rule when normal operations resume.
      </p>
    </section>
  </main>
  <script src="index.js"></script>
</body>
</html>

<!doctype html>
<html lang="en">
<head>
  <meta charset="utf-8">
  <meta name="viewport" content="width=device-width, initial-scale=1">
  <title>Service Notice</title>
  <link rel="stylesheet" href="index.css">
</head>
<body>
  <main class="wrap">
    <section class="card" role="status" aria-live="polite">
      <div class="status" id="status">Temporary Notice</div>
      <h1 id="headline">This service is currently unavailable.</h1>
      <p id="message1">
        The site you requested is temporarily down for maintenance or an unexpected outage.
      </p>
      <p id="message2">
        Please try again in a few minutes.
      </p>
      <p class="small" id="detail">
        If you are an administrator, restore upstream service and remove the redirect/fallback rule when normal operations resume.
      </p>
    </section>
  </main>
  <script src="index.js"></script>
</body>
</html>

<!doctype html>
<html lang="en">
<head>
  <meta charset="utf-8">
  <meta name="viewport" content="width=device-width, initial-scale=1">
  <title>Service Notice</title>
  <link rel="stylesheet" href="index.css">
</head>
<body>
  <main class="wrap">
    <section class="card" role="status" aria-live="polite">
      <div class="status" id="status">Temporary Notice</div>
      <h1 id="headline">This service is currently unavailable.</h1>
      <p id="message1">
        The site you requested is temporarily down for maintenance or an unexpected outage.
      </p>
      <p id="message2">
        Please try again in a few minutes.
      </p>
      <p class="small" id="detail">
        If you are an administrator, restore upstream service and remove the redirect/fallback rule when normal operations resume.
      </p>
    </section>
  </main>
  <script src="index.js"></script>
</body>
</html>

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Goodland KS
353 PM MDT Sat Jun 17 2023

COZ091-092-172230-
Kit Carson County CO-Cheyenne County CO-
353 PM MDT Sat Jun 17 2023

...Strong thunderstorms will impact portions of northwestern Cheyenne
and southwestern Kit Carson Counties in east central Colorado through
430 PM MDT...

At 352 PM MDT, Doppler radar was tracking strong thunderstorms along
a line extending from 5 miles southwest of Flagler to 10 miles
southeast of Boyero. Movement was east at 30 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 50 mph and pea size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor damage to outdoor objects is
         possible.

Locations impacted include...
  Seibert and Kit Carson.

This includes Interstate 70 in Colorado between mile markers 391 and
416.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

A Severe Thunderstorm Watch remains in effect until 800 PM MDT for
east central Colorado.

&&

LAT...LON 3930 10315 3932 10267 3874 10266 3873 10316
TIME...MOT...LOC 2152Z 269DEG 26KT 3922 10313 3882 10314

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.25 IN
MAX WIND GUST...50 MPH

KAK

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Goodland KS
429 PM MDT Sat Jun 17 2023

COZ090>092-172300-
Kit Carson County CO-Cheyenne County CO-Yuma County CO-
429 PM MDT Sat Jun 17 2023

...Strong thunderstorms will impact portions of Cheyenne County in
east central Colorado, southwestern Yuma County in northeastern
Colorado and Kit Carson Counties in east central Colorado through 500
PM MDT...

At 428 PM MDT, Doppler radar was tracking strong thunderstorms along
a line extending from 10 miles east of Thurman to 13 miles southwest
of Kit Carson. Movement was east at 25 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 50 mph and half inch hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor damage to outdoor objects is
         possible.

These storms will remain over mainly rural areas of Cheyenne County
in east central Colorado, southwestern Yuma County in northeastern
Colorado and Kit Carson Counties in east central Colorado, including
the following locations... Joes, Firstview and Kirk.

This includes Interstate 70 in Colorado between mile markers 393 and
431.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

Torrential rainfall is also possible with these storms and may lead
to localized flooding and near zero visibility. Do not drive your
vehicle through flooded roadways.

A Severe Thunderstorm Watch remains in effect until 800 PM MDT for
east central Colorado.

&&

LAT...LON 3957 10280 3965 10280 3967 10238 3862 10238
      3862 10307 3957 10314
TIME...MOT...LOC 2228Z 276DEG 15KT 3957 10303 3867 10302

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.50 IN
MAX WIND GUST...50 MPH

KAK