Flash Flood Warning 47, NWS Goodland, KS

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Goodland KS
637 PM MDT Fri Jun 16 2023

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Saturday Night)
Issued at 147 PM MDT Fri Jun 16 2023

As of 2 pm CDT, 1 pm MDT, skies across the Tri-State Region ranged
from mostly clear along and east of Highway 25 to mostly cloudy over
northeastern Colorado. Winds are generally light and from the north,
though there does seem to be a prefrontal trough bisecting the are
leading to some variable wind directions in the southeastern part of
the forecast area. Temperatures ranged quite a bit this afternoon,
from the 60s in Yuma County Colorado to the mid 80s along Highway
283 in Kansas. At the surface, the previously mentioned prefrontal
trough extends from roughly Norton, KS to Tribune, Kansas, and the
cold front is lagging behind, positioned over the Nebraska Panhandle
and into northeastern Colorado. Aloft, a potent shortwave trough is
ejecting over the Plains, currently positioned over southwestern
Colorado and moving rapidly northeast. It is this shortwave trough
that is causing thunderstorms to quickly develop according to latest
GOES 16 satellite and WSR 88D radar imagery.

For the rest of the evening through tonight, widespread thunderstorm
activity is anticipated with everyone likely observing at least some
rain. Current mesoanalysis indicates quite an unstable environment
ahead of the cold front with SBCape of 1500-2500 j/kg, low level
lapse rates in excess of 8 C/km, and mid-level lapse rates up to 7
C/km. DCape, an indication of the damaging wind potential, is on the
rise and currently ranges from around 500 to around 1000 j/kg. Wind
shear is also now available for thunderstorms with 0-6 km bulk shear
analyzed at 25-40 kts, highest in Cheyenne County Colorado, and 0-3
km helicity of 50-100 m2/s2 also projected in the same area. With
the wind shear actually available for this event, we are expecting
more intense thunderstorms than what occurred yesterday as the wind
shear will help to organize and sustain the storms. Expecting
initial storms to be isolated to scattered with two areas of
development: 1. the Colorado Front Range extending into the Colorado
Plains, which is ongoing now, and 2. Along the prefrontal in
northwest Kansas and southwest Nebraska. The convection developing
over Colorado will be much more robust due to the available wind
shear, and we should see at least a few supercellular structures
initially. These storms will be capable of large hail, damaging
winds, and possibly a tornado or two given the low level wind shear.
LCLs are also favorable for potential tornado formation with values
between 1000-1250m. Eventually, storms are highly expected to form
into a bowing structure, likely as storms cross into Kansas around
to after 6 pm MDT. Once this bowing structure forms, damaging winds
would become the primary severe weather threat. Heavy rainfall and
flash flooding will also be a threat, and the Flood Watch for
excessive rainfall and flash flooding looks on track. Flash flooding
will be possible with both the supercells and bowing structure.
Storms will move across southwest Nebraska and northwest Kansas
through the evening hours, with most precipitation coming to an end
after midnight.

For tomorrow, yet another round of thunderstorms is anticipated,
some of which will be severe. It looks like a similar setup as
today, although the front positioning will be further south,
displacing the low level wind shear needed for tornado development
to around the Kansas/Oklahoma border. For our area, damaging winds
and large hail look to be the primary severe weather threats, and
precipitable water readings will be sufficient for heavy rainfall.
The Pwat readings do drop off, to around 1 inch instead of 1.25+
inches, but with heavy rainfall expected tonight, the ground being
saturated will compensate for the lower pwats and therefore keep the
flash flood threat alive. Storms should form along the Colorado
Front Range during the early afternoon, migrating through our
forecast area by late afternoon in eastern Colorado and the evening
hours for northwest Kansas and southwest Nebraska. Not totally sure
if we'll see the same size of complex tomorrow, but do think
organized thunderstorms should be anticipated with most of us under
the threat for more activity.

.LONG TERM...(Sunday through Friday)
Issued at 120 PM MDT Fri Jun 16 2023

Extended period will shift from the relatively cool conditions of
the past week to a warmer, potentially active pattern by the middle
of the week. H5 ridge will amplify over the area Sunday and Monday
leading to large scale subsidence and warming temperatures. Will be
the first two day period in a while where thunderstorms are not
expected in the afternoon and evening. Temperatures will continue to
warm through the week, and will likely be well above normal by
Tuesday with some of the warmest temperatures of the season expected.

While conditions will begin the period dry, think the threat for
thunderstorms will come back to the region fairly quickly as ridge
axis settles to the east of area, putting CWA on western periphery
with decent southwesterly flow aloft. GEFS ensembles indicate
afternoon CAPE values likely exceeding 2000 j/kg my mid week with
primary question being how strong capping inversion will be. Given
position of H5 ridge axis, think is is reasonable to assume that
cap can be overcome at times. With southeasterly flow at the
surface, shear profiles support severe storm organization and
would expect at least a round or two of severe weather after
Wednesday.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Saturday evening)
Issued at 600 PM MDT Fri Jun 16 2023

GLD: Adverse aviation conditions associated with thunderstorms are
possible at the beginning of the TAF period (00-06Z). A period of MVFR-
IFR ceilings cannot be ruled-out in the wake of evening/overnight
thunderstorms - mainly a few hours on either side of sunrise
Saturday morning (10-15Z). VFR conditions will otherwise prevail
through mid-afternoon. Adverse aviation conditions associated with
thunderstorms (approaching from the west) are anticipated at/near
the end of the TAF period (~00Z Sun). Winds will predominately
remain light and variable through the TAF period -- aside from
gusty/erratic winds invof any storms.

MCK: Adverse aviation conditions associated with showers/storms
are possible late this evening.. mainly in the 03-07Z time frame..
though confidence is low w/regard to whether or not the terminal
will directly be affected. A period of MVFR-IFR ceilings cannot
be ruled-out as widespread convection (or convective remnants)
progress eastward into central KS.. mainly a few hours on either
side of sunrise Saturday morning (10-15Z). Adverse aviation
conditions associated with thunderstorms (approaching from the
west) are anticipated near the end of the TAF period (~00Z
Sun). Winds will predominately remain light and variable through
the TAF period.. aside from gusty/erratic winds invof any storms.

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...Flood Watch until 11 PM MDT this evening for KSZ013-027-041.

CO...Flood Watch until 11 PM MDT this evening for COZ091-092.

NE...NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...RRH
LONG TERM...JRM
AVIATION...Vincent

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