Flash Flood Warning 7, NWS Hastings, NE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Hastings NE
617 PM CDT Thu Sep 21 2023

...Aviation Update...

.DISCUSSION...(This evening through Thursday)
Issued at 133 PM CDT Thu Sep 21 2023

Key Messages:

* Thunderstorms chances the next 48 hours or so are main focus of
  the forecast, and to what extent the area could see severe
  weather.

* The forecast returns to "mostly dry" in the mid/longer period
  with temperatures at or slightly above seasonal normals.

Deck of low/mid level clouds across the forecast in response to
deep moisture return and warm advection ahead of western US trough
and lead shortwave moving in Colorado region. Surface dewpoints
"up there" for late September...well into the 60s. With the clouds
have come scattered showers and cooler temperatures, especially
across the northern forecast area which has had an outflow from
morning thunderstorms in northeast Nebraska move through.

Tonight the issue is thunderstorms, coverage and severity. The
bottom line is there is uncertainty in both coverage and intensity
but also enough "juice" to support some strong/severe storms for
a time. First, the mid-level showers may perk up a bit as they
move northeast across the areas the next 3-4 hours. Not looking
for severe weather but a strong storm or two southeast of Hastings
is possible. The main severe risk initially appears to be just
west of the forecast, in southwest Nebraska on the lead edge
of the deep moisture and differential heating. Initial storm
development there could be severe in the later afternoon, but
development farther into southern Nebraska in the 6 to 9 pm
timeframe appears probable. This convection has the potential to
produce large hail and strong winds. Some, discrete supercell in
the early evening will be worth watching for a tornado, but
personally think that is more likely just west. By mid/later
evening, a decent low level jet will promote more development and
sustainability to the east across much of the forecast area it
appears. Again, severe storms possible, but overall severity
should wane toward midnight. Should the storms develop in this
manner, there will be some decent rain to measure in a few
people's rain gauge.

The upper level low and and main front move through on Saturday
morning. Prior to that, rain/storm chances Friday favor north of
the forecast area. Although we display 40-50% rain chances north
of I-80 tomorrow night, I think that may be too high. Same vote
for Saturday, as the frontal timing and proximity of the low don't
suggest real great rain chances. Expect to see those chances
tighten up and decrease Saturday in the east. Temperatures will
drop a bit behind the front (from early this week) but still hold
around normal for the weekend.

Unfortunately, time has been sparse to look much at the longer term
part of the forecast...roughly Sunday through Thursday. In
general, an upper level ridge aloft will temporary assert itself
for a few days keep much of the area mainly dry. Having said that,
there small chances for showers/isolated thunderstorms. One is in
the eastern areas Monday/Tuesday. Those are tied to the weekend
upper low sort of shearing apart over eastern NE/IA. Pretty big
assumption at this point and I would not be surprised if those
eventually disappeared. And I would not bet too much on the rain
chances later in the week just yet either. There is a LOT more dry
than wet next week. Temperatures will be normal to slightly above
normal (normal highs next week 73-79 degrees)which has been the
trend much of September. And with morning lows in the lower/middle
50s, that is a pretty pleasant week for the first full week of
autumn. Lighter winds early in the week will pick up and becoming
more steady about midweek ahead of the potential trough by next
weekend.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z KGRI/KEAR TAFS through 00Z Saturday)
Issued at 611 PM CDT Thu Sep 21 2023

Tricky TAFs tonight with convection expected to move into the TAF
sites later this evening. Radar has -SHRA over the TAF sites and
convection is out west moving ENE. Ceilings are expected to drop
to IFR overnight and models have IFR all day tomorrow. A couple of
models do lift ceilings in the afternoon so decided to follow that
solution based on time of year and as warm we have been lately.
The winds are expected to be ESE through the period. If storms do
get rolling tonight, wouldn't be surprised if TAF sites see a few
strong gusts from TSRA.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

DISCUSSION...NOAA/NWS/Moritz
AVIATION...Beda

Hazardous Weather Outlook...UPDATED
National Weather Service Hastings NE
301 PM CDT Thu Sep 21 2023

KSZ005>007-017>019-NEZ039>041-046>049-060>064-072>077-082>087-
221200-
Phillips-Smith-Jewell-Rooks-Osborne-Mitchell-Valley-Greeley-Nance-
Sherman-Howard-Merrick-Polk-Dawson-Buffalo-Hall-Hamilton-York-
Gosper-Phelps-Kearney-Adams-Clay-Fillmore-Furnas-Harlan-Franklin-
Webster-Nuckolls-Thayer-
301 PM CDT Thu Sep 21 2023

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for south central Nebraska and
portions of north central Kansas.

.DAY ONE...Late this Afternoon and Tonight.

A tornado watch is in effect until 10 pm for areas along and
west of a line from Lexington Nebraska...to Alma...to Stockton
Kansas.

Initially, isolated thunderstorms late this afternoon will move
southwest to northeast across the area, and could be briefly
strong with small hail and gusty winds through 5 or 6 pm.

After about 5 pm, thunderstorms in western Nebraska are expected
to slide east into at least parts of the area. Severe weather is
possible, mainly before midnight. Large hail to size of golf
balls and wind gusts to 60 mph will be possible from strongest
storms this evening. To the west of a Lexington Nebraska to
Alma, to Stockton Kansas line, a brief tornado can't be ruled out
from any isolated supercell in that region.

Later in the evening, the storms will congeal and may produce
locally strong winds as the move east, and eventually out of
the area after midnight.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Wednesday.

Isolated, non-severe storms are possible early Friday in south
central Nebraska.

Friday evening and early Saturday, there is a marginal risk for
severe weather across the area. It appears thunderstorms Friday
night and early Saturday will favor south central Nebraska for
coverage, and especially north of Interstate 80. Quarter size
hail
and isolated wind gusts are possible.

The main risk for thunderstorm Saturday morning will be along
and east of U.S. Highway 81 from Columbus to Hebron Nebraska.
By Saturday evening, the risk for thunderstorms will move east
and end across the area.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Any reports of severe weather tonight, including tornadoes,
funnel clouds, hail and damaging winds, will be appreciated.

&&

More information may be obtained at the following web page:
   https://www.weather.gov/hastings

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