Tornado Warning 14, NWS Fort Worth, TX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
716 PM CDT Thu Mar 16 2023

...New Short Term, Aviation...

.SHORT TERM... /NEW/
/Through Tomorrow/

Radar imagery depicts a broken line of strong to severe
thunderstorms across North and Central Texas, extending from Lamar
County to Bell County at the time of this writing. This activity
will continue to push east as a strong cold front, currently along
a Bonham to DFW to Comanche line continues to surge south and
east. A favorable environment, characterized by dew points in the
60s, steep mid level lapse rates around 7 C/km, MLCAPE upwards of
1500 J/kg, and deep layer shear values upwards of 50-60 knots will
continue to support the threat for severe weather ahead of the
cold front. Large hail and damaging wind gusts will be the main
threats, but a tornado threat cannot be discounted especially with
the discrete cells ahead of the cold front.

The threat for severe weather will come to an end as the colder
airmass spills southward this evening across North Texas and
tonight across Central Texas. Low temperatures will be about 20-25
degrees cooler than this morning, with lows falling into the 40s
region wide. Additional light precipitation will develop mainly
south of the I-20 corridor tonight. Although most precipitation
should fall as light rain, there is a very low potential for a
brief transition to a light rain/sleet mix across portions of the
Big Country and Central Texas after midnight.

Otherwise, a Wind Advisory will remain in effect through tomorrow
morning as sustained post frontal winds of 20-30 MPH and gusts
near 40-45 MPH are expected through Friday morning. Winds should
decrease in speed late Friday afternoon. High temperatures on
Friday will struggle to reach the mid 50s, roughly 15 degrees
cooler than normal for mid March.

Garcia

&&

.LONG TERM... /Issued 157 PM CDT Thu Mar 16 2023/
Update:

Only minor adjustments were made with this forecast update and the
discussion below remains on track. Cloud cover Friday night will
inhibit some areas from dropping to/below freezing. Areas near
and north of I-20 are still the most likely to experience low
temperatures below freezing each night through the weekend.
Otherwise, low (20-30%) rain chances arrive Monday, with periodic
low rain chances through the rest of the week. Temperatures return
to near or slightly above normal by Wednesday.

Gordon

Previous Discussion:
/Friday Night through Wednesday/

A period of well below normal temperatures and sporadic low rain
chances will prevail through the early part of next week behind
today's strong cold front. Friday night will be the coldest night
in a while with temperatures likely dropping to near or just below
freezing to the west and north of the Metroplex. Some patchy frost
will also be possible early Saturday morning. An increase in high
cloud cover late Friday night into Saturday will likely prevent
temperatures from falling further, but these clouds will thin out
during the day Saturday and another cold night is expected with
temperatures falling to below freezing along the Red River
Saturday night.

An upstream shortwave will become sheared apart as it spreads into
the Plains on Monday. Prior to this though, modest moisture return
across parts of Central and West Texas will result in an increase
in low cloud cover, mainly across our western counties. As large
scale lift increases Sunday night into Monday, we could see some
light rain develop across the region. Global ensembles have backed
off on this potential to some degree, so we'll generally limit
PoPs to 20-30%. The increased cloud cover will hold high temps
down into the upper 40s and lower 50s for Monday afternoon.

A much stronger system will move into California on Tuesday and
will be responsible for a rapid low level moisture return into the
Plains starting Tuesday morning. This will also support a rapid
warmup through the middle and latter part of next week. Morning
cloud cover will give way to partly sunny skies Tue/Wed afternoons
with temps warming back into the mid/upper 70s by Wednesday. This
system will eventually kick out into the Central Plains late next
week and likely support another severe weather episode in the
Thu/Fri timeframe.

Dunn

&&

.AVIATION... /NEW/
/00Z TAFs/

Strong convection along and ahead of a cold front will continue to
move to the east and southeast, ending precipitation chances for
the Metroplex terminals through the period. Intermittent periods
of high end MVFR ceilings and low end VFR ceilings can be expected
this evening, and have included a TEMPO group to account for this
potential. As the cold front advances south, convection will
likely reach Waco closer to 01-02Z before exiting around 03-04Z.
Additional light precipitation may develop behind the front across
Central Texas, but confidence in coverage is low so VCSH has been
maintained for Waco.

Strong post-frontal northwest winds around 25 to 30 knots with
gusts near 35 to 40 knots will prevail through Friday morning at
all TAF sites, before falling to around 15 knots late Friday
afternoon.

Garcia

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Dallas-Ft. Worth    38  55  38  57  35 /  40   0   0   0   0
Waco                41  55  39  56  36 /  80  10   0   5   5
Paris               37  52  34  55  30 /  90   0   0   0   0
Denton              35  53  33  56  30 /  20   0   0   0   0
McKinney            37  53  34  55  30 /  40   0   0   0   0
Dallas              40  55  38  57  35 /  50   0   0   0   0
Terrell             39  54  36  57  32 /  90   5   0   0   0
Corsicana           41  55  39  57  36 /  90  10   0   0   0
Temple              41  55  38  56  36 /  70  20   5   5  10
Mineral Wells       36  55  34  57  32 /  20   0   0   0   0

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Wind Advisory until 10 AM CDT Friday for TXZ091>095-100>107-
115>123-129>135-141>148-156>162-174-175.

&&

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
139 PM CDT Thu Mar 16 2023

TXZ091>095-100>107-115>123-129>135-141>148-156>162-174-175-171200-
Montague-Cooke-Grayson-Fannin-Lamar-Young-Jack-Wise-Denton-Collin-
Hunt-Delta-Hopkins-Stephens-Palo Pinto-Parker-Tarrant-Dallas-
Rockwall-Kaufman-Van Zandt-Rains-Eastland-Erath-Hood-Somervell-
Johnson-Ellis-Henderson-Comanche-Mills-Hamilton-Bosque-Hill-Navarro-
Freestone-Anderson-Lampasas-Coryell-Bell-McLennan-Falls-Limestone-
Leon-Milam-Robertson-
139 PM CDT Thu Mar 16 2023

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for North and Central Texas.

.DAY ONE...This Afternoon and Tonight.

Showers and thunderstorms are expected to develop today with a severe
threat this afternoon and evening. Large hail (greater than golf ball
size) will be the main threat with initial storm development. As a
cold front approaches late this afternoon, a damaging wind threat
will increase. There will also be a potential for tornadoes into the
evening hours.

Strong winds will spread into the region behind the cold front this
evening with wind gusts up to 45 mph.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Wednesday.

Freezing temperatures will be possible during the upcoming weekend,
particularly in areas north of the I-20 corridor. A late-season frost
is likely Saturday morning in sheltered locations and where light
winds dominate.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is likely this afternoon and evening across North
and Central Texas.

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
648 PM CDT Thu Mar 16 2023

TXZ105-118>121-133-134-145-170015-
Ellis TX-Kaufman TX-Hunt TX-Tarrant TX-Rockwall TX-Hill TX-
Johnson TX-Dallas TX-
648 PM CDT Thu Mar 16 2023

...Strong thunderstorms will impact portions of Rockwall,
southwestern Hunt, northwestern Kaufman, central Johnson,
southeastern Tarrant, northwestern Hill, northwestern Ellis and
Dallas Counties through 715 PM CDT...

At 648 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking strong thunderstorms along
a line extending from Garland to Lake Pat Cleburne. Movement was east
at 35 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 50 mph and half inch hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor damage to outdoor objects is
         possible.

Locations impacted include...
Dallas, Arlington, Garland, Grand Prairie, Mesquite, Mansfield,
Rowlett, Desoto, Cedar Hill, Duncanville, Rockwall, Lancaster,
Waxahachie, Cleburne, Balch Springs, University Park, Sachse,
Midlothian, Seagoville and Forney.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

A Tornado Watch remains in effect until 800 PM CDT for central and
north central Texas.

&&

LAT...LON 3298 9615 3211 9727 3228 9758 3297 9661
TIME...MOT...LOC 2348Z 291DEG 30KT 3291 9661 3230 9745

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.50 IN
MAX WIND GUST...50 MPH

30

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
655 PM CDT THU MAR 16 2023

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0649 PM     HAIL             1 ESE LAWRENCE          32.74N 96.33W
03/16/2023  E1.25 INCH       KAUFMAN            TX   PUBLIC

&&

HLR

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PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
701 PM CDT THU MAR 16 2023

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0701 PM     HAIL             5 W VAN                 32.53N 95.71W
03/16/2023  E1.00 INCH       VAN ZANDT          TX   PUBLIC

&&

HLR

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
702 PM CDT THU MAR 16 2023

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0702 PM     HAIL             ALMA                    32.29N 96.54W
03/16/2023  M1.75 INCH       ELLIS              TX   TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

HLR

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
706 PM CDT Thu Mar 16 2023

TXZ095-105>107-170045-
Hunt TX-Hopkins TX-Lamar TX-Delta TX-
706 PM CDT Thu Mar 16 2023

...Strong thunderstorms will impact portions of northeastern Hunt,
northern Hopkins, Delta and Lamar Counties through 745 PM CDT...

At 705 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking strong thunderstorms along
a line extending from near Raymond Gary State Park to near Klondike.
Movement was east at 35 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 50 mph and penny size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor damage to outdoor objects is
         possible.

Locations impacted include...
Paris, Commerce, Cooper, Blossom, Roxton, Lake Crook, Cooper Lake,
Powderly, Big Creek Lake, Cooper Lake State Park, Pattonville,
Klondike, Camp Maxey, Deport, Tira, Pecan Gap, Novice, Toco, Sun
Valley and New Birthright.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

A Tornado Watch remains in effect until 800 PM CDT for north central
Texas.

&&

LAT...LON 3323 9586 3332 9600 3340 9592 3341 9586
      3347 9586 3387 9546 3387 9534 3389 9532
      3382 9531 3329 9531
TIME...MOT...LOC 0005Z 276DEG 32KT 3394 9530 3337 9586

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.75 IN
MAX WIND GUST...50 MPH

30