Severe Thunderstorm Warning 49, NWS Fort Worth, TX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
611 PM CST Thu Mar 2 2023

...New Short Term, Aviation...

.SHORT TERM... /NEW/
/Through Friday/

The severe weather event is coming together as expected with a
well defined squall line currently extending from southern
Oklahoma to the Concho Valley. This line is moving east at 45 mph
and producing large hail, damaging winds and even a few
tornadoes. The line is fairly narrow and storms will not last long
in any one locations but they will pack a punch. We will keep PoPs
very high this evening since nearly all locations will see
measurable precipitation. Once the line exits to the east very
strong west to northwest winds will move in behind it with gusts
in excess of 40 mph likely. Therefore, we will keep the Wind
Advisory going from 8 PM through 10 AM Friday.

Clouds will be slow to clear as moisture wraps around the
departing upper low but a steady clearing from west to east will
occur after sunrise Friday. It will be much cooler and breezy
Friday with highs mainly in the 60s.

79

&&

.LONG TERM... /Issued 130 PM CST Thu Mar 2 2023/
/Friday night Onward/

Much more tranquil weather is expected over the weekend and early
next week as zonal flow dominate the pattern aloft. A mid-level
disturbance is forecast to move into the Central Plains Saturday
morning sending a weak cold front southward. We don't anticipate
much of an impact across our area as this front is expected to
lose its push as it approaches our northern counties. Some
locations near the Red River will see a wind shift to the north
Saturday afternoon, but no precipitation is anticipated.
Otherwise, a warming trend will take place over the weekend with
highs in the 70s on Saturday and 70s to low 80s on Sunday.

The unseasonably warmer temperatures and breezy conditions
continue early next week with highs 10-20 degrees above normal for
early March. Afternoon highs will range from the mid 70s to low
80s area wide. The overnight temperatures will also stay on the
warm side with lows in the 50s/60s. With an established southerly
flow, we will also see increasing humidity and mostly cloudy
skies especially during the morning hours. The next upper level
system is forecast to arrive during the mid-week period with
several rounds of showers and storms Tuesday afternoon through at
least next Thursday.

Sanchez

&&

.AVIATION... /NEW/
/00Z TAFs/

An intense line of thunderstorms will move across the Metroplex
TAF sites between 00Z and 02Z with a slightly later time window
for Waco. This line of storms will likely result in ground stops
at all airports but the most intense part of the line will exit to
the east between 02Z and 03Z with only some lingering light rain
and occasional lightning through the evening. The wrap around
moisture will result in some post-frontal MVFR stratus, mainly at
the Metroplex airports. All ceilings should scatter just after
sunrise with VFR through the day Friday.

A strong and gusty west to northwest wind will prevail behind the
line of storms with sustained speeds between 20 and 30 knot and
gusts in excess of 35 knots. These speeds will decrease through
the day Friday as the wind becomes more northwesterly. These winds
will result in some major crosswind issues for much of the night
and morning Friday.

79

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Dallas-Ft. Worth    45  64  46  75  51 / 100   5   0   0   0
Waco                47  66  43  76  47 / 100   0   0   0   0
Paris               45  59  41  68  47 / 100  20   0   0   0
Denton              42  62  41  74  47 / 100   5   0   0   0
McKinney            45  62  42  72  48 / 100  10   0   0   0
Dallas              45  64  45  75  50 / 100   5   0   0   0
Terrell             47  62  43  74  49 / 100   5   0   0   0
Corsicana           49  65  46  76  50 /  90   0   0   0   0
Temple              47  70  43  79  48 /  90   0   0   0   0
Mineral Wells       42  65  42  76  47 /  80   0   0   0   0

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Wind Advisory until 10 AM CST Friday for TXZ091>095-100>107-
115>123-129>135-141>148-156>162-174-175.

&&

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
639 PM CST Thu Mar 2 2023

TXZ091>095-100>107-115>123-129>135-141>148-156>162-174-175-040000-
Montague-Cooke-Grayson-Fannin-Lamar-Young-Jack-Wise-Denton-Collin-
Hunt-Delta-Hopkins-Stephens-Palo Pinto-Parker-Tarrant-Dallas-
Rockwall-Kaufman-Van Zandt-Rains-Eastland-Erath-Hood-Somervell-
Johnson-Ellis-Henderson-Comanche-Mills-Hamilton-Bosque-Hill-Navarro-
Freestone-Anderson-Lampasas-Coryell-Bell-McLennan-Falls-Limestone-
Leon-Milam-Robertson-
639 PM CST Thu Mar 2 2023

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for North and Central Texas.

.DAY ONE...Tonight.
A line of severe thunderstorms will move across North and Central
Texas through the evening producing damaging straight line winds,
hail,and a few tornadoes. Once the initial line of storms moves
through, additional rain may result in localized flooding of streets
and low lying areas.

Windy conditions behind a cold front are expected tonight with gusts
to 45 mph possible.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Wednesday.
Windy conditions will continue on Friday, especially during the
morning hours with gusts between 30 and 40 mph possible.

Thunderstorm chances will return by the middle of next week with the
arrival of a strong cold front and upper level disturbance.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
Spotter activation is likely the rest of the evening, mainly along
and east of the I-35 corridor

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
755 PM CST THU MAR 2 2023

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0710 PM     TSTM WND GST     1 W TERRELL             32.74N 96.31W
03/02/2023  M74 MPH          KAUFMAN            TX   EMERGENCY MNGR

            MEASURED 74 MPH ON THE WEST SIDE OF TERRELL.

&&

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