Severe Thunderstorm Warning 66, NWS Grand Forks, ND

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Forks ND
305 PM CDT Wed Jun 28 2023

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Thursday night)
Issued at 305 PM CDT Wed Jun 28 2023

Convective chances and strength will be the main issues for the
period.

Water vapor loop shows the main trough digging down over southern
Canada, with one embedded shortwave moving through northern MN and
another approaching northern ND. There has been some convection
developing along the surface trough axis extending from southern
Canada into north central ND. ML CAPE values shown by the SPC
mesoanalysis page has around 2000 J/kg. Deep layer bulk shear is
minimal at this point, but there is some surface vorticity and
0-3km CAPE near the Turtle Mountains. A weak funnel cloud has been
reported just outside our CWA, and will have to watch the trough
axis as it moves into our northwestern counties this evening.
While the lack of deep layer shear will make storms short lived,
there could be a period with some pulsing up to severe hail levels
and brief funnels. Updraft helicity probabilities from the HREF
are not high for our western counties, but there is some signal
for some isolated severe cells. These threats should diminish as
the sun goes down, but the upper wave coming down should help keep
at least some shower and elevated thunderstorm activity going
through the night as the system moves into MN.

There may be some lingering showers in our east tomorrow morning
again as the shortwave moves through northern MN. There is some
question as to how much destabilization we will get behind this
shortwave, as there is a weak frontal boundary coming through with
it. NBM mean surface based CAPE is in the 500-1000 J/kg range, and
deep layer shear is still around 15 kts. Not hugely impressed
with severe chances tomorrow, but there could be more thunderstorm
development and some impacts from brief downpours and lightning.
This activity will quickly fizzle off Thursday evening under weak
surface high pressure and most of the upper forcing off to the
east.

.LONG TERM...(Friday through Wednesday)
Issued at 305 PM CDT Wed Jun 28 20

Friday through Sunday...The period starts off fairly quiet with
northwesterly flow aloft giving way to some ridging over the
weekend. Some isolated shower and thunderstorm activity is not
completely out of the question due to some ridge riding
shortwaves, but overall the pattern looks a bit drier for start of
July. Temperatures will be near seasonal averages for Friday as
weak surface high pressure continues, but should warm up well into
the 80s and even low 90s as heights rise Saturday and Sunday.

Monday through Wednesday...Flow starts to become more zonal and then
southwesterly as a broad trough drops down out of Canada into the
Northern Plains. A cold front will be dropping through at some point
on Monday, and impacts will depend on when exactly it comes through,
but overall a trend towards slightly cooler temperatures and a more
active pattern looks reasonable for next week. Probabilities for
over 1000 J/kg of CAPE look high (above 60 percent) for the frontal
passage on Monday. Greater spread on the 4th of July, with ensemble
members ranging from very stable to around 1500 J/kg. M climate
percentiles do have a bit of a wet signal for Tuesday, which would
fit the Murphy's Law of getting precipitation on a holiday. Several
weak shortwaves will be moving through Tuesday into Wednesday, but
hard to get a handle at this point on exact impacts.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Thursday afternoon)
Issued at 1247 PM CDT Wed Jun 28 2023

There continues to be some MVFR to IFR ceilings for most locations
along and eat of the Red River, with clearing skies around KDVL.
Conditions should improve to VFR for most sites later this
afternoon, although KBJI could see some IFR ceilings a bit longer.
Thunderstorms will move in from west to east late this afternoon
and evening, mainly affecting the more northern airports. Have
VCTS for all but KFAR. Convection should move out of the area
and/or weaken to showers by late evening. Winds that are light and
variable will pick up out of the west to northwest at around 10
kts by the end of the period.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...None.
MN...None.
&&

SHORT TERM...JR
LONG TERM...JR
AVIATION...JR

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Grand Forks ND
429 PM CDT Wed Jun 28 2023

MNZ001>009-013>017-022>024-027>032-040-NDZ006>008-014>016-024-
026>030-038-039-049-052>054-292130-
West Polk-Norman-Clay-Kittson-Roseau-Lake Of The Woods-
West Marshall-East Marshall-North Beltrami-Pennington-Red Lake-
East Polk-North Clearwater-South Beltrami-Mahnomen-
South Clearwater-Hubbard-West Becker-East Becker-Wilkin-
West Otter Tail-East Otter Tail-Wadena-Grant-Towner-Cavalier-
Pembina-Benson-Ramsey-Eastern Walsh-Eddy-Nelson-Grand Forks-
Griggs-Steele-Traill-Barnes-Cass-Ransom-Sargent-Richland-
Western Walsh-
429 PM CDT Wed Jun 28 2023

This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of eastern North
Dakota, west central and northwest Minnesota.

.DAY ONE...Tonight

Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms are possible late this
afternoon through early evening, mainly across the northern Red
River Valley and the Devils Lake region. Quarter sized hail, 60
mph winds, lightning, and locally heavy rain are the main
concerns.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Thursday through Tuesday

The probability for widespread hazardous weather is low.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not anticipated.

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Grand Forks ND
430 PM CDT Wed Jun 28 2023

NDZ006>008-015-282145-
Pembina ND-Towner ND-Ramsey ND-Cavalier ND-
430 PM CDT Wed Jun 28 2023

...Strong thunderstorms will impact portions of southeastern Towner,
central Cavalier, north central Ramsey and northwestern Pembina
Counties through 445 PM CDT...

At 430 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking strong thunderstorms
capable of producing a landspout and half inch size hail along a
line extending from 6 miles north of Vang to near Starkweather.
Movement was northeast at 10 mph.

HAZARD...Landspouts and half inch hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Minor damage to outdoor objects is possible.

Locations impacted include...
Langdon, Starkweather, Hampden, Alsen, Olga, Dresden and Vang.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

&&

LAT...LON 4884 9778 4835 9890 4849 9907 4900 9825
      4900 9815
TIME...MOT...LOC 2130Z 246DEG 8KT 4899 9815 4842 9891

LANDSPOUT...POSSIBLE
MAX HAIL SIZE...0.50 IN
MAX WIND GUST...<30 MPH

Perroux

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Grand Forks ND
432 PM CDT Wed Jun 28 2023

NDZ006-014-015-282200-
Benson ND-Towner ND-Ramsey ND-
432 PM CDT Wed Jun 28 2023

...A strong thunderstorm will impact portions of north central
Benson, southern Towner and northwestern Ramsey Counties through 500
PM CDT...

At 432 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm
capable of producing a landspout and penny size hail 8 miles west of
Maza, or 31 miles northwest of Devils Lake, moving southeast at 15
mph.

HAZARD...Landspouts and penny size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Minor damage to outdoor objects is possible.

Locations impacted include...
Cando and Maza.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

&&

LAT...LON 4837 9949 4844 9949 4853 9933 4841 9895
      4824 9933 4837 9954
TIME...MOT...LOC 2132Z 300DEG 12KT 4842 9938

LANDSPOUT...POSSIBLE
MAX HAIL SIZE...0.75 IN
MAX WIND GUST...<30 MPH

Perroux

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Grand Forks ND
443 PM CDT Wed Jun 28 2023

NDZ006>008-015-054-282230-
Pembina ND-Towner ND-Western Walsh County ND-Ramsey ND-Cavalier ND-
443 PM CDT Wed Jun 28 2023

...Strong thunderstorms will impact portions of southeastern Towner,
eastern Cavalier, northeastern Ramsey, northwestern Walsh and
northern Pembina Counties through 530 PM CDT...

At 442 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking strong thunderstorms
capable of producing a landspout and nickel size hail along a line
extending from near Neche to Garske. Movement was southeast at 25
mph.

HAZARD...Landspouts and nickel size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Minor damage to outdoor objects is possible.

Locations impacted include...
Langdon, Cavalier, Walhalla, Pembina, Neche, Edmore and Osnabrock.

This includes Interstate 29 between mile markers 208 and 217.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

These storms may intensify, so be certain to monitor local radio
stations and available television stations for additional information
and possible warnings from the National Weather Service.

&&

LAT...LON 4900 9723 4895 9724 4888 9720 4828 9872
      4848 9914 4866 9863 4900 9812
TIME...MOT...LOC 2142Z 292DEG 22KT 4898 9747 4836 9886

LANDSPOUT...POSSIBLE
MAX HAIL SIZE...0.88 IN
MAX WIND GUST...<30 MPH

Perroux

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