Severe Thunderstorm Warning 63, NWS Grand Forks, ND

629 
WWUS53 KFGF 282135
SVSFGF

Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service Grand Forks ND
435 PM CDT Wed Jun 28 2023

NDC019-067-282145-
/O.EXP.KFGF.SV.W.0063.000000T0000Z-230628T2145Z/
Cavalier ND-Pembina ND-
435 PM CDT Wed Jun 28 2023

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR NORTHEASTERN CAVALIER AND
NORTHWESTERN PEMBINA COUNTIES WILL EXPIRE AT 445 PM CDT...
                
The storm which prompted the warning has weakened below severe
limits, and no longer poses an immediate threat to life or property.
Therefore, the warning will be allowed to expire.  However small hail
is still possible with this thunderstorm.

LAT...LON 4900 9735 4884 9779 4900 9816
TIME...MOT...LOC 2135Z 290DEG 19KT 4895 9761 

$$

Perroux

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Forks ND
305 PM CDT Wed Jun 28 2023

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Thursday night)
Issued at 305 PM CDT Wed Jun 28 2023

Convective chances and strength will be the main issues for the
period.

Water vapor loop shows the main trough digging down over southern
Canada, with one embedded shortwave moving through northern MN and
another approaching northern ND. There has been some convection
developing along the surface trough axis extending from southern
Canada into north central ND. ML CAPE values shown by the SPC
mesoanalysis page has around 2000 J/kg. Deep layer bulk shear is
minimal at this point, but there is some surface vorticity and
0-3km CAPE near the Turtle Mountains. A weak funnel cloud has been
reported just outside our CWA, and will have to watch the trough
axis as it moves into our northwestern counties this evening.
While the lack of deep layer shear will make storms short lived,
there could be a period with some pulsing up to severe hail levels
and brief funnels. Updraft helicity probabilities from the HREF
are not high for our western counties, but there is some signal
for some isolated severe cells. These threats should diminish as
the sun goes down, but the upper wave coming down should help keep
at least some shower and elevated thunderstorm activity going
through the night as the system moves into MN.

There may be some lingering showers in our east tomorrow morning
again as the shortwave moves through northern MN. There is some
question as to how much destabilization we will get behind this
shortwave, as there is a weak frontal boundary coming through with
it. NBM mean surface based CAPE is in the 500-1000 J/kg range, and
deep layer shear is still around 15 kts. Not hugely impressed
with severe chances tomorrow, but there could be more thunderstorm
development and some impacts from brief downpours and lightning.
This activity will quickly fizzle off Thursday evening under weak
surface high pressure and most of the upper forcing off to the
east.

.LONG TERM...(Friday through Wednesday)
Issued at 305 PM CDT Wed Jun 28 20

Friday through Sunday...The period starts off fairly quiet with
northwesterly flow aloft giving way to some ridging over the
weekend. Some isolated shower and thunderstorm activity is not
completely out of the question due to some ridge riding
shortwaves, but overall the pattern looks a bit drier for start of
July. Temperatures will be near seasonal averages for Friday as
weak surface high pressure continues, but should warm up well into
the 80s and even low 90s as heights rise Saturday and Sunday.

Monday through Wednesday...Flow starts to become more zonal and then
southwesterly as a broad trough drops down out of Canada into the
Northern Plains. A cold front will be dropping through at some point
on Monday, and impacts will depend on when exactly it comes through,
but overall a trend towards slightly cooler temperatures and a more
active pattern looks reasonable for next week. Probabilities for
over 1000 J/kg of CAPE look high (above 60 percent) for the frontal
passage on Monday. Greater spread on the 4th of July, with ensemble
members ranging from very stable to around 1500 J/kg. M climate
percentiles do have a bit of a wet signal for Tuesday, which would
fit the Murphy's Law of getting precipitation on a holiday. Several
weak shortwaves will be moving through Tuesday into Wednesday, but
hard to get a handle at this point on exact impacts.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Thursday afternoon)
Issued at 1247 PM CDT Wed Jun 28 2023

There continues to be some MVFR to IFR ceilings for most locations
along and eat of the Red River, with clearing skies around KDVL.
Conditions should improve to VFR for most sites later this
afternoon, although KBJI could see some IFR ceilings a bit longer.
Thunderstorms will move in from west to east late this afternoon
and evening, mainly affecting the more northern airports. Have
VCTS for all but KFAR. Convection should move out of the area
and/or weaken to showers by late evening. Winds that are light and
variable will pick up out of the west to northwest at around 10
kts by the end of the period.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...None.
MN...None.
&&

SHORT TERM...JR
LONG TERM...JR
AVIATION...JR

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Grand Forks ND
435 AM CDT Wed Jun 28 2023

MNZ001>009-013>017-022>024-027>032-040-NDZ006>008-014>016-024-
026>030-038-039-049-052>054-290945-
West Polk-Norman-Clay-Kittson-Roseau-Lake Of The Woods-
West Marshall-East Marshall-North Beltrami-Pennington-Red Lake-
East Polk-North Clearwater-South Beltrami-Mahnomen-
South Clearwater-Hubbard-West Becker-East Becker-Wilkin-
West Otter Tail-East Otter Tail-Wadena-Grant-Towner-Cavalier-
Pembina-Benson-Ramsey-Eastern Walsh-Eddy-Nelson-Grand Forks-
Griggs-Steele-Traill-Barnes-Cass-Ransom-Sargent-Richland-
Western Walsh-
435 AM CDT Wed Jun 28 2023

This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of eastern North
Dakota, west central and northwest Minnesota.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight

There is a low probability for widespread severe weather with
scattered showers and thunderstorms this afternoon. Quarter sized
hail, 60 mph winds, lightning, and locally heavy rain are the
main concern with any stronger storms.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Thursday through Tuesday

The probability for widespread hazardous weather is low.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not anticipated.

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Grand Forks ND
1056 AM CDT Wed Jun 28 2023

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0825 PM     Hail             1 NW Mapes              48.04N 98.25W
06/27/2023  M1.00 inch       Nelson             ND   Public

            Public reports quarter sized hail for 20
            minutes. Crop damage occurred, 100% crop
            loss estimated.

&&

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Grand Forks ND
252 PM CDT Wed Jun 28 2023

NDZ006-007-282015-
Towner ND-Cavalier ND-
252 PM CDT Wed Jun 28 2023

...A strong thunderstorm will impact portions of northeastern Towner
and northwestern Cavalier Counties through 315 PM CDT...

At 252 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
Sarles, or 35 miles northwest of Langdon, moving southeast at 15 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 50 mph and nickel size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor damage to outdoor objects is
         possible.

Locations impacted include...
Sarles.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

&&

LAT...LON 4900 9892 4895 9884 4882 9906 4896 9923
      4900 9917
TIME...MOT...LOC 1952Z 319DEG 14KT 4897 9909

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.88 IN
MAX WIND GUST...50 MPH

Kent

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Grand Forks ND
353 PM CDT Wed Jun 28 2023

NDZ006-007-015-282130-
Towner ND-Ramsey ND-Cavalier ND-
353 PM CDT Wed Jun 28 2023

...A strong thunderstorm will impact portions of southeastern Towner,
southwestern Cavalier and north central Ramsey Counties through 430
PM CDT...

At 353 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm over
mainly rural areas of southeastern Towner County , moving east at 20
mph.

HAZARD...Nickel size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Minor damage to outdoor objects is possible.

This storm will remain over mainly rural areas of southeastern
Towner, southwestern Cavalier and north central Ramsey Counties.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

&&

LAT...LON 4853 9923 4862 9914 4860 9881 4836 9896
TIME...MOT...LOC 2053Z 289DEG 19KT 4854 9910

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.88 IN
MAX WIND GUST...<30 MPH

Perroux