Special Weather Statement, NWS Atlanta, GA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
331 PM EDT Wed Jun 7 2023

...Afternoon Area Forecast Discussion...

.SHORT TERM...
(This afternoon through Thursday)
Issued at 320 PM EDT Wed Jun 7 2023

Rest of this Afternoon & Evening:

Diurnally driven thunderstorm activity will be the main concern
this evening. Activity should be focused south of Interstate 20
through around 9 PM. Two weak surface boundaries were evident in
the cumulus field, with one stretching from Newnan to around
Sparta, and the second from Columbus to Dublin. These boundaries
should be the focus for convective development until more cold
pools develop. The severe risk is low, but with the SPC
Mesoanalysis suggesting a peak in DCAPE (~1400 j/kg) and MLCAPE
(~1000 j/kg) in east central Georgia, there could be a risk for
localized downburst activity. Outside of this the main concerns
with any storms this evening will be lighting and brief heavy
downpours.

Tonight and Tomorrow:

A shortwave trough will help drive a cold front into the region
tonight. As the front moves south we may see a few light showers
develop over northern Georgia. Any precipitation from this
activity should be limited. As the front pushes into central
Georgia in the afternoon thunderstorms should develop and increase
in coverage. CAM guidance supports relatively widespread coverage
and we are currently running with 40 to 60 percent rain chances.
A couple of the storms could be strong or severe, with forecast
soundings from the CAMs suggesting isolated downbursts as the
primary threat. Temperatures will be split in the region Thursday
afternoon, with highs varying from the low 80 in north Georgia
the low 90s in central Georgia.

Albright

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Friday morning through next Tuesday)
Issued at 320 PM EDT Wed Jun 7 2023

.LONG TERM...

No major changes made to the extended forecast. Showers and perhaps
a few isolated thunderstorms may linger across portions of central
Georgia Fri morning as the frontal boundary pushes into S GA/N FL.
Expecting any associated moisture/forcing to completely clear the
CWA by 18z Friday, then stalling across the Florida panhandle Fri
night. Behind the front, the eastern bookend of our presiding Omega
block begins to shift offshore, allowing for a brief period of
northwesterly flow aloft to usher in a pocket of very dry
continental air from across central Canada. With PWATs forecast to
be on the order of 0.4-0.5" as the drier airmass settles in across
the Southeast -- nearing the daily minimum moving average
-- appreciable precipitation chances are unlikely to return until
late Sunday.

By weekend's end, we see the breakdown of the Omega block, with a
secondary lobe of low pressure developing across the Great Lakes and
forcing the lingering New England low offshore. This opens the door
for subsequent shortwave activity as disturbances traverse the outer
edge of the closed low (and at present, this feature looks to remain
present in some capacity through the end of the period). Expect this
to materialize in the form of heightened chances for showers and
thunderstorms Monday into Tuesday. Highs look to be in the 80s to
lower-90s (just a few degrees above average for early June) and lows
in the upper-50s to 60s each day.

01

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 142 PM EDT Wed Jun 7 2023

The main aviation concern through 02Z will be scattered shower and
thunderstorms activity over central and southern Georgia. Impacts
may occur at KMCN or KCSG, but storm activity is unlikely (<10%
chance) at KATL. Additional rain shower activity is possible
between 09Z and 18Z Thursday over northern Georgia. VFR ceilings
and visibilities are expected through 18Z Thursday. Winds will
range from northwesterly over north Georgia to southwesterly over
southern Georgia through 02Z, then winds should be light and
variable overnight.

//ATL Confidence...18Z Update...
Overall forecast confidence in moderate
Moderate confidence in thunderstorm chances.
High confidence in winds, ceilings and visibility

Albright

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Athens          64  83  58  84 /  20  20  10   0
Atlanta         67  83  61  84 /  20  30  10   0
Blairsville     56  75  50  77 /  20  10   0   0
Cartersville    63  81  55  83 /  20  20   0   0
Columbus        67  90  64  88 /  20  50  20   0
Gainesville     64  81  58  83 /  20  20   0   0
Macon           67  88  63  88 /  30  60  20   0
Rome            64  82  55  85 /  20  20   0   0
Peachtree City  64  84  59  84 /  10  40  10   0
Vidalia         70  91  67  88 /  30  60  30  10

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

SHORT TERM...Albright
LONG TERM....01
AVIATION...Albright

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Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
352 PM EDT Wed Jun 7 2023

GAZ078-089>091-072015-
Chattahoochee GA-Harris GA-Marion GA-Muscogee GA-
352 PM EDT Wed Jun 7 2023

...A strong thunderstorm will impact portions of northwestern Marion,
Muscogee, eastern Chattahoochee and south central Harris Counties
through 415 PM EDT...

At 352 PM EDT, a strong thunderstorm was over Eelbeck/West Fort
Moore, or 9 miles north of Cusseta, moving southeast at 15 mph.

HAZARD...40 to 50 mph wind, pea sized hail and frequent cloud to
         ground lightning.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Expect minor damage to tree limbs and blowing around of
         light, unsecured objects.

Locations impacted include...
Cusseta, Upatoi, North Fort Moore, Brantley, Ellerslie, Flat Rock,
Christopher, Vista Terrace, Cataula, Renfroe, Manta, Zellobee,
Kenwood, Midland, Eelbeck/West Fort Moore and Fortson.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

People outdoors should seek shelter immediately. If you can hear
thunder, you are close enough to be struck by lightning.

&&

LAT...LON 3263 8502 3269 8488 3255 8468 3252 8469
      3253 8465 3240 8447 3223 8466 3223 8472
TIME...MOT...LOC 1952Z 314DEG 12KT 3245 8476

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.25 IN
MAX WIND GUST...50 MPH

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
357 PM EDT Wed Jun 7 2023

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0338 PM     Tstm Wnd Dmg     2 WSW Franklinton       32.79N 83.57W
06/07/2023                   Bibb               GA   Trained Spotter

            Trained spotter reports that a microburst
            occurred near mile marker 6 on Interstate
            16. Trees down on both sides of the
            interstate with cars pulled off to the side.

&&

ks

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
412 PM EDT Wed Jun 7 2023

GAZ080-081-093>095-072045-
Macon GA-Peach GA-Taylor GA-Houston GA-Crawford GA-
412 PM EDT Wed Jun 7 2023

...A strong thunderstorm will impact portions of northeastern Macon,
Peach, northwestern Houston, south central Crawford and east central
Taylor Counties through 445 PM EDT...

At 412 PM EDT, a strong thunderstorm was over Nakomis, or 8 miles
west of Fort Valley, moving east at 25 mph.

HAZARD...40 to 50 mph wind, up to penny sized hail and frequent
         cloud to ground lightning.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Expect minor damage to tree limbs and blowing around of
         light, unsecured objects.

Locations impacted include...
Perry, Fort Valley, Warner Robins, Centerville, Byron, Marshallville,
Reynolds, Saint Louis, Nakomis, Meadowdale, Hicks, Lakewood,
Powerville, Moss Oak, Lee Pope and Miami Valley.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

People outdoors should seek shelter immediately. If you can hear
thunder, you are close enough to be struck by lightning.

&&

LAT...LON 3246 8412 3264 8410 3265 8368 3238 8371
TIME...MOT...LOC 2012Z 275DEG 22KT 3255 8403

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.75 IN
MAX WIND GUST...50 MPH

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
415 PM EDT Wed Jun 7 2023

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0337 PM     Tstm Wnd Dmg     3 NE Reese              33.37N 82.55W
06/07/2023                   Warren             GA   911 Call Center

            Trees and powerlines down at Ricketson Road
            near Mt. Pleasant Road.

&&

KAL

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
417 PM EDT Wed Jun 7 2023

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0337 PM     Tstm Wnd Dmg     2 NNE Reese             33.37N 82.56W
06/07/2023                   Warren             GA   911 Call Center

            Trees and powerlines down on Little Briar
            Creek Church Road near Ricketson Road.

&&

KAL

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