Severe Thunderstorm Warning 181, NWS Atlanta, GA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
331 PM EDT Wed Jun 7 2023

...Afternoon Area Forecast Discussion...

.SHORT TERM...
(This afternoon through Thursday)
Issued at 320 PM EDT Wed Jun 7 2023

Rest of this Afternoon & Evening:

Diurnally driven thunderstorm activity will be the main concern
this evening. Activity should be focused south of Interstate 20
through around 9 PM. Two weak surface boundaries were evident in
the cumulus field, with one stretching from Newnan to around
Sparta, and the second from Columbus to Dublin. These boundaries
should be the focus for convective development until more cold
pools develop. The severe risk is low, but with the SPC
Mesoanalysis suggesting a peak in DCAPE (~1400 j/kg) and MLCAPE
(~1000 j/kg) in east central Georgia, there could be a risk for
localized downburst activity. Outside of this the main concerns
with any storms this evening will be lighting and brief heavy
downpours.

Tonight and Tomorrow:

A shortwave trough will help drive a cold front into the region
tonight. As the front moves south we may see a few light showers
develop over northern Georgia. Any precipitation from this
activity should be limited. As the front pushes into central
Georgia in the afternoon thunderstorms should develop and increase
in coverage. CAM guidance supports relatively widespread coverage
and we are currently running with 40 to 60 percent rain chances.
A couple of the storms could be strong or severe, with forecast
soundings from the CAMs suggesting isolated downbursts as the
primary threat. Temperatures will be split in the region Thursday
afternoon, with highs varying from the low 80 in north Georgia
the low 90s in central Georgia.

Albright

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Friday morning through next Tuesday)
Issued at 320 PM EDT Wed Jun 7 2023

.LONG TERM...

No major changes made to the extended forecast. Showers and perhaps
a few isolated thunderstorms may linger across portions of central
Georgia Fri morning as the frontal boundary pushes into S GA/N FL.
Expecting any associated moisture/forcing to completely clear the
CWA by 18z Friday, then stalling across the Florida panhandle Fri
night. Behind the front, the eastern bookend of our presiding Omega
block begins to shift offshore, allowing for a brief period of
northwesterly flow aloft to usher in a pocket of very dry
continental air from across central Canada. With PWATs forecast to
be on the order of 0.4-0.5" as the drier airmass settles in across
the Southeast -- nearing the daily minimum moving average
-- appreciable precipitation chances are unlikely to return until
late Sunday.

By weekend's end, we see the breakdown of the Omega block, with a
secondary lobe of low pressure developing across the Great Lakes and
forcing the lingering New England low offshore. This opens the door
for subsequent shortwave activity as disturbances traverse the outer
edge of the closed low (and at present, this feature looks to remain
present in some capacity through the end of the period). Expect this
to materialize in the form of heightened chances for showers and
thunderstorms Monday into Tuesday. Highs look to be in the 80s to
lower-90s (just a few degrees above average for early June) and lows
in the upper-50s to 60s each day.

01

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 142 PM EDT Wed Jun 7 2023

The main aviation concern through 02Z will be scattered shower and
thunderstorms activity over central and southern Georgia. Impacts
may occur at KMCN or KCSG, but storm activity is unlikely (<10%
chance) at KATL. Additional rain shower activity is possible
between 09Z and 18Z Thursday over northern Georgia. VFR ceilings
and visibilities are expected through 18Z Thursday. Winds will
range from northwesterly over north Georgia to southwesterly over
southern Georgia through 02Z, then winds should be light and
variable overnight.

//ATL Confidence...18Z Update...
Overall forecast confidence in moderate
Moderate confidence in thunderstorm chances.
High confidence in winds, ceilings and visibility

Albright

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Athens          64  83  58  84 /  20  20  10   0
Atlanta         67  83  61  84 /  20  30  10   0
Blairsville     56  75  50  77 /  20  10   0   0
Cartersville    63  81  55  83 /  20  20   0   0
Columbus        67  90  64  88 /  20  50  20   0
Gainesville     64  81  58  83 /  20  20   0   0
Macon           67  88  63  88 /  30  60  20   0
Rome            64  82  55  85 /  20  20   0   0
Peachtree City  64  84  59  84 /  10  40  10   0
Vidalia         70  91  67  88 /  30  60  30  10

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

SHORT TERM...Albright
LONG TERM....01
AVIATION...Albright

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
1131 AM EDT Wed Jun 7 2023

GAZ001>009-011>016-019>025-027-030>039-041>062-066>076-078>086-
089>098-102>113-081545-
Baldwin-Banks-Barrow-Bartow-Bibb-Bleckley-Butts-Carroll-Catoosa-
Chattahoochee-Chattooga-Cherokee-Clarke-Clayton-Cobb-Coweta-
Crawford-Crisp-Dade-Dawson-DeKalb-Dodge-Dooly-Douglas-Emanuel-
Fannin-Fayette-Floyd-Forsyth-Gilmer-Glascock-Gordon-Greene-
Gwinnett-Hall-Hancock-Haralson-Harris-Heard-Henry-Houston-Jackson-
Jasper-Jefferson-Johnson-Jones-Lamar-Laurens-Lumpkin-Macon-
Madison-Marion-Meriwether-Monroe-Montgomery-Morgan-Murray-
Muscogee-Newton-North Fulton-Oconee-Oglethorpe-Paulding-Peach-
Pickens-Pike-Polk-Pulaski-Putnam-Rockdale-Schley-South Fulton-
Spalding-Stewart-Sumter-Talbot-Taliaferro-Taylor-Telfair-Toombs-
Towns-Treutlen-Troup-Twiggs-Union-Upson-Walker-Walton-Warren-
Washington-Webster-Wheeler-White-Whitfield-Wilcox-Wilkes-
Wilkinson-
1131 AM EDT Wed Jun 7 2023

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of North and Central Georgia.

.DAY ONE...This Afternoon and Tonight...

Scattered thunderstorm activity is expected between 1 PM and 9 PM
today along and south of Interstate 20. The primary concerns with
any storms will be cloud to ground lighting, brief heavy downpours
and strong wind gusts.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Thursday through Tuesday...

Scattered thunderstorms will occur in the region Thursday and
Thursday night. A couple of storms may become severe, with
damaging winds or hail being the main threats. Locally heavy
rainfall and frequent lightning will occur with any storms that
form.

Widespread shower and thunderstorm activity is expected Sunday
afternoon into Monday. Then thunderstorms will be possible each
afternoon and evening next week.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not requested but spotters are encouraged
to submit reports of severe weather through the web by going to
weather.gov/atlanta.  Please relay any information about observed
severe weather to the NWS while following all local, state, and
CDC guidelines.

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