Severe Thunderstorm Warning 37, NWS Atlanta, GA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
259 PM EST Thu Jan 12 2023

...Afternoon Area Forecast Discussion...

.SHORT TERM...
(This afternoon through Friday)
Issued at 238 PM EST Thu Jan 12 2023

A Tornado Watch remains in effect until 7PM EST for portions of
north and central GA.
Wind Advisory in effect until 11PM EST for all of north and
central GA.

A line of strong to severe thunderstorms is currently pushing
through NW GA (just north of the metro) at this hour. Additionally,
a smaller secondary line of strong to severe storms has also
formed out ahead of this line just NW of Macon. However, the main
front is still well to our west just now entering into NW AL per
latest MSAS analysis. The CWA remains situated in the warm sector
with SSW flow ushering in upper 50s to mid 60 dewpoints. Breaks in
the cloud cover have resulted in further destabilization across
the area with SBCAPE values ranging from 500 to 1000J/kg. Out
ahead of the primary line of thunderstorms DCAPE ranges roughly
from 600-700 J/kg. Thus, strong damaging winds remain the primary
threat. However, tornadoes are certainly not out of the question,
as this line has a history of producing tornadoes (further west in
Central AL). 0-1km SRH values per SPC Mesoanalysis range from
200-350 m2/s2 across a good portion of the area. Locally heavy
rainfall, particularly with stronger storms could also lead to
some localized flooding issues as storms moves through. So
needless to say quite an active afternoon and evening is in store
for the Peach State. At this hour there are several active Severe
Thunderstorm and Tornado Warnings currently in effect. Please stay
weather aware!

Based on latest CAMs (Convective Allowing Models) the primary line
of storms pushes through the ATL metro btwn 3-5PM and past Macon
by 6-9PM and finally clearing the area between 9PM-12AM. Winds
will quickly shift to the W following the passage of the primary
line and eventually to the NW as the cold front moves through.

Still anticipating some wrap around moisture associated with this
system as the sfc low track northeast. Height falls associated
with the upper trough will usher in colder air across the north
overnight. All of this to say, some light wintry precipitation
across North GA (better chances across the NE GA mtns) will be
possible Friday morning as temperatures will be in the 30s.

07

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Saturday morning through next Wednesday)
Issued at 238 PM EST Thu Jan 12 2023

High pressure continues to dominate the weather pattern today but
things will change Sat afternoon/evening. The ridge is currently
centered over AL but will slide east overnight becoming centered
over GA Sat. It will weaken a bit as it moves east off the GA/SC
coast Sat night/Sun. This will allow the next frontal system to
move into NW GA Late Sat afternoon through Sat night.

Currently a closed low center is developing across the TX/OK
panhandles and will push eastward to the OK/MO/AR borders by 12z
Sat. The associated frontal boundary will spread moisture eastward
into N GA by late morning mainly in the form of increased cloud
cover. By Sat evening The main frontal boundary will be moving
through the MS river Valley but it will also be oriented from NE to
SW with the top end of the front pushing into NW GA at the same
time. Only areas North and West of the ATL area should see precip
Sat night with the rest of the area seeing it Sun. Instability is
fairly limited with the front so for now only going with showers Sat
night but would not be surprised to see a lightning strike or two as
it moves into the area Sun.

Temperatures tonight will dip back down into the 30s with highs Sat
mainly in the 60s. Light southerly flow sets up ahead of the frontal
boundary Sat so Sat night lows will only get down into the 40s. This
will keep any freezing/frozen precip well north of our area.

01

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1234 PM EST Thu Jan 12 2023

Mostly MVFR cigs at all sites this aftn. SSW winds are starting to
pick up with gusts nearing 25kts. Over the next few hours could
see gusts as high as 27-33kts ahead of the main line of storms
pushing through NW GA. No major changes to the timing of TSRA,
still looks to impact ATL btwn 21-00z. Could see pockets of VFR
behind the line as winds quickly shift to the WNW/NW. Though MVFR
cigs are expect to fill back in overnight through at least 12-14z
Friday. Winds will remain gusts through this later period as well
with NW winds 10-13kts with gusts nearing 20-22kts.

//ATL Confidence...Avi Update...

Medium to high confidence on all elements.

07

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Athens          40  49  30  49 / 100   0   0   0
Atlanta         38  44  30  45 /  60   0   0   0
Blairsville     32  39  25  41 /  60  30  20   0
Cartersville    36  44  28  45 /  50   0   0   0
Columbus        41  49  31  50 /  70   0   0   0
Gainesville     39  46  30  46 /  60  10   0   0
Macon           43  52  31  51 / 100   0   0   0
Rome            38  44  30  47 /  50   0   0   0
Peachtree City  38  46  29  47 /  60   0   0   0
Vidalia         46  56  34  51 / 100   0   0   0

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Wind Advisory until 11 PM EST this evening for GAZ001>009-
011>016-019>025-027-030>039-041>062-066>076-078>086-089>098-
102>113.

&&

SHORT TERM...07
LONG TERM....01
AVIATION...07

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
301 PM EST Thu Jan 12 2023

GAZ001>009-011>016-019>025-027-030>039-041>062-066>076-078>086-
089>098-102>113-132015-
Baldwin-Banks-Barrow-Bartow-Bibb-Bleckley-Butts-Carroll-Catoosa-
Chattahoochee-Chattooga-Cherokee-Clarke-Clayton-Cobb-Coweta-
Crawford-Crisp-Dade-Dawson-DeKalb-Dodge-Dooly-Douglas-Emanuel-
Fannin-Fayette-Floyd-Forsyth-Gilmer-Glascock-Gordon-Greene-
Gwinnett-Hall-Hancock-Haralson-Harris-Heard-Henry-Houston-Jackson-
Jasper-Jefferson-Johnson-Jones-Lamar-Laurens-Lumpkin-Macon-
Madison-Marion-Meriwether-Monroe-Montgomery-Morgan-Murray-
Muscogee-Newton-North Fulton-Oconee-Oglethorpe-Paulding-Peach-
Pickens-Pike-Polk-Pulaski-Putnam-Rockdale-Schley-South Fulton-
Spalding-Stewart-Sumter-Talbot-Taliaferro-Taylor-Telfair-Toombs-
Towns-Treutlen-Troup-Twiggs-Union-Upson-Walker-Walton-Warren-
Washington-Webster-Wheeler-White-Whitfield-Wilcox-Wilkes-
Wilkinson-
301 PM EST Thu Jan 12 2023

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of North and Central Georgia.

.DAY ONE...This Afternoon and Tonight...

Strong to severe thunderstorms are ongoing across portions of
North and Central GA. The main threats will be damaging wind
gusts up to 60 mph, several isolated tornadoes, and frequent
lightning. A Tornado Watch remains in effect until 7PM EST for a
good portion of the state.

A wind advisory also remains in effect until 11 pm to account for
strong wind gusts from 30-40 mph ahead of the line which could
also bring down trees and powerlines, before storms begin.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Wednesday...

Light snow showers are expected in extreme north Georgia which
could lead to light accumulations of a quarter to a half inch in
higher elevations and a dusting in the lower elevations.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is requested for Thursday afternoon and
Thursday evening across north and central Georgia. Please relay
any information about observed severe weather to the NWS while
following all local, state, and CDC guidelines.

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
207 PM EST Thu Jan 12 2023

GAZ080-091>093-121945-
Macon GA-Schley GA-Taylor GA-Marion GA-
207 PM EST Thu Jan 12 2023

...A strong thunderstorm will impact portions of northwestern Macon,
east central Marion, northwestern Schley and southern Taylor Counties
through 245 PM EST...

At 207 PM EST, a strong thunderstorm was near Tazewell, or 8 miles
northeast of Buena Vista, moving northeast at 40 mph.

HAZARD...40 to 50 mph wind, pea sized hail and frequent cloud to
         ground lightning.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Expect minor damage to tree limbs and blowing around of
         light, unsecured objects.

Locations impacted include...
Butler, Reynolds, Ideal, Murrays Crossroads, Tazewell, Doyle, Rupert,
Charing, Garden Valley, Hicks and Potterville.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

People outdoors should seek shelter immediately. If you can hear
thunder, you are close enough to be struck by lightning.

A Tornado Watch remains in effect until 700 PM EST for west central
Georgia.

&&

LAT...LON 3227 8445 3241 8454 3264 8414 3238 8400
TIME...MOT...LOC 1907Z 234DEG 33KT 3238 8439

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.25 IN
MAX WIND GUST...50 MPH

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
232 PM EST THU JAN 12 2023

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0201 PM     TSTM WND DMG     1 NW CEDARTOWN          34.02N 85.27W
01/12/2023                   POLK               GA   EMERGENCY MNGR

            TREES AND POWERLINES DOWNED NEAR THE
            INTERSECTION OF PINE ST AND W. GIRARD AVE.

&&

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
236 PM EST Thu Jan 12 2023

GAZ030-031-041-122000-
Polk GA-Haralson GA-Paulding GA-
236 PM EST Thu Jan 12 2023

...Strong thunderstorms will impact portions of western Paulding,
Haralson and eastern Polk Counties through 300 PM EST...

At 236 PM EST, a line of strong thunderstorms was along a line
extending from Van Wert to Tallapoosa, and moving northeast at 80
mph.

HAZARD...40 to 50 mph wind, up to penny sized hail, frequent cloud
         to ground lightning and heavy rain.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Expect minor damage to tree limbs and blowing around of
         light, unsecured objects. Heavy rain may cause temporary
         street flooding especially in poor drainage areas.

Locations impacted include...
Dallas, Buchanan, Bremen, Rockmart, Tallapoosa, Aragon, Waco,
Braswell, Taylorsville, Yorkville, Fish Creek, Eubank Lake, Antioch,
Van Wert, Draketown and Felton.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

People outdoors should seek shelter immediately. If you can hear
thunder, you are close enough to be struck by lightning. Motorists
should slow down and be prepared for possible loss of control due to
hydroplaning.

A Tornado Watch remains in effect until 500 PM EST for northwestern
Georgia. A Tornado Watch also remains in effect until 700 PM EST for
northwestern Georgia.

&&

LAT...LON 3409 8500 3408 8499 3389 8485 3380 8500
      3381 8505 3378 8505 3365 8528 3365 8532
      3387 8538
TIME...MOT...LOC 1936Z 239DEG 68KT 3397 8505 3376 8529

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.75 IN
MAX WIND GUST...50 MPH

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
258 PM EST Thu Jan 12 2023

GAZ020>022-031>033-042-043-122030-
North Fulton GA-Douglas GA-Cobb GA-Cherokee GA-Bartow GA-Carroll GA-
Forsyth GA-Paulding GA-
258 PM EST Thu Jan 12 2023

...Strong thunderstorms will impact portions of southeastern
Paulding, Cherokee, western Forsyth, Cobb, north central Carroll,
northwestern Douglas, northeastern Fulton and southeastern Bartow
Counties through 330 PM EST...

At 258 PM EST, a line of strong thunderstorms was along a line
extending from Canton to near Dallas, and moving east at 50 mph.

HAZARD...40 to 50 mph wind, pea sized hail and frequent cloud to
         ground lightning.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Expect minor damage to tree limbs and blowing around of
         light, unsecured objects.

Locations impacted include...
Marietta, Canton, Dallas, Cumming, Mountain Park, Sandy Springs,
Roswell, Alpharetta, Smyrna, Dunwoody, Milton, Kennesaw, Woodstock,
Acworth, Powder Springs, Holly Springs, Austell, Hiram, Emerson and
Free Home.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

People outdoors should seek shelter immediately. If you can hear
thunder, you are close enough to be struck by lightning.

A Tornado Watch remains in effect until 500 PM EST for north central
and northwestern Georgia. A Tornado Watch also remains in effect
until 700 PM EST for north central and northwestern Georgia.

&&

LAT...LON 3430 8452 3429 8399 3380 8452 3376 8505
      3378 8505
TIME...MOT...LOC 1958Z 267DEG 44KT 3426 8447 3389 8489

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.25 IN
MAX WIND GUST...50 MPH

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
312 PM EST Thu Jan 12 2023

GAZ016-122030-
White GA-
312 PM EST Thu Jan 12 2023

...A strong thunderstorm will impact portions of central White County
through 330 PM EST...

At 312 PM EST, a strong thunderstorm was over Helen, or near
Cleveland, moving east at 40 mph.

HAZARD...40 to 50 mph wind, nickel sized hail and frequent cloud to
         ground lightning.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Expect minor damage to tree limbs and blowing around of
         light, unsecured objects.

Locations impacted include...
Cleveland, Helen, Unicoi State Park, Robertstown, Anna Ruby Falls,
Smithgall Woods Conservation Are, Sautee and Qualatchee Lake.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

People outdoors should seek shelter immediately. If you can hear
thunder, you are close enough to be struck by lightning.

A Tornado Watch remains in effect until 700 PM EST for northeastern
Georgia.

&&

LAT...LON 3477 8365 3477 8364 3476 8363 3473 8362
      3472 8364 3467 8364 3466 8366 3462 8364
      3459 8364 3461 8381 3477 8381 3480 8368
TIME...MOT...LOC 2012Z 265DEG 36KT 3468 8373

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.88 IN
MAX WIND GUST...50 MPH

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
356 PM EST Thu Jan 12 2023

GAZ051-061-062-122130-
Taliaferro GA-Hancock GA-Warren GA-
356 PM EST Thu Jan 12 2023

...A strong thunderstorm will impact portions of Warren, northeastern
Hancock and Taliaferro Counties through 430 PM EST...

At 356 PM EST, a strong thunderstorm was near Sparta, moving
northeast at 60 mph.

HAZARD...40 to 50 mph wind, nickel sized hail and frequent cloud to
         ground lightning.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Expect minor damage to tree limbs and blowing around of
         light, unsecured objects.

Locations impacted include...
Warrenton, Sparta, Crawfordville, Norwood, Sharon, Camak,
Springfield, Cadley, Mayfield, Powelton, Barnett, Mesena,
Shoulderbone, Raytown, Alexander Stephens Park, Sandy Cross and
Culverton.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

People outdoors should seek shelter immediately. If you can hear
thunder, you are close enough to be struck by lightning.

A Tornado Watch remains in effect until 700 PM EST for east central
Georgia.

&&

LAT...LON 3336 8256 3323 8304 3335 8312 3348 8300
      3349 8298 3350 8299 3362 8287 3359 8264
      3346 8259 3342 8256 3339 8255
TIME...MOT...LOC 2056Z 238DEG 54KT 3332 8299

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.88 IN
MAX WIND GUST...50 MPH