River Flood Warning 31, NWS Atlanta, GA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
1246 PM EST Wed Jan 4 2023

...New 18Z Aviation Discussion...

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Thursday)
Issued at 408 AM EST Wed Jan 4 2023

A tornado watch has been issued to start off the morning for a line
south of the I-20 corridor. The south and central regions of the CWA
are still seeing temperatures in the upper 60s and low 70s at the
time of this AFD. Any additional heating before the front arrives
will continue to prime the environment for another round of strong
to severe storms south I-20.

The primary threats in this morning's watch area will be damaging
winds and the possibility of isolated tornadoes. Moderate SBCAPE
values of 1500 J/KG and effective bulk shear exceeding 60kts. Any
storm that forms in this sector will also be working with SRH values
near 400 m2/s2 so rotation and mesocyclones can be expected even
with non tornado producing storms. We've already seen embedded
supercells in the line as it approaches, and conditions are
favorable for the formation of discrete supercells out ahead of the
line. The situation continue to evolve and remain complex, please
continue to monitor the forecast for the most up to date information
concerning on going watches and warnings.

A flood watch will remain in effect until Wednesday night, and
additional rainfall of up to two inches are possible with isolated
higher totals in areas of training storms. While no additional
counties have been added during this mornings forecast period, heavy
rain continues to fall just north of the metro ATL area and training
storms just north of I-20 will need to be watched closely for flash
flooding as more rain continues to fall.

The front should clear the area after 7PM today and and cooler
temperatures and clear weather will eventually push in for Thursday.
Temps in the mid to upper 60s will be likely for tomorrow as winds
turn more westerly, but we still remain around 10 degrees above
average; a trend that will likely continue through the long term.

Vaughn

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Thursday night through Tuesday)
Issued at 408 AM EST Wed Jan 4 2023

A comparatively cooler and drier airmass will be in place across
north and central Georgia as the extended period begins on Friday.
An upper level ridge and associated surface high will move over the
Southeast on Friday, which will keep weather conditions benign and
skies mostly clear across the region on Friday and Saturday. Low
temperatures are forecast to drop into the 30s across the forecast
area as the morning begins. Afternoon highs will still be 3-6
degrees above climatological normals, but no longer pushing record
values, rising into the mid 50s in north Georgia and upper 50s to
low 60s in central Georgia. After starting the morning in the mid
30s across the area on Saturday, temperatures will climb under the
influence of the ridge, reaching into the low to mid 60s across the
area in the afternoon.

A weak frontal system will drop into north Georgia on Saturday night
into Sunday. However, low-level moisture and instability continue to
appear limited across the area, so a slight chance of showers with
no thunderstorms has been maintained across north Georgia for
Saturday night into Sunday. The frontal boundary is anticipated to
sag into north Georgia before stalling and washing out early Monday.
Model guidance continues to diverge on the upper level flow pattern
during the early portions of next week. The potential remains for
additional waves to traverse the remnant boundary, so slight to low-
end chance PoPs have been maintained on Monday and Tuesday. The
potential for a wintry mix in the higher elevations of northeast
Georgia will need to be monitored at the tail-end of the period, as
there is a slight chance that precip overrunning the frontal zone
may overlap with border-line freezing temperatures in this area
Monday night into Tuesday morning.

King

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1235 PM EST Wed Jan 4 2023
The main area of rain has exited the area but there is a small
line of showers along the actual front moving through the ATL
area now. The ATL/CSG area TAF sites are now done with the rain
but AHN and MCN will still see some over the next few hours. IFR
and MVFR ceilings will lift in the ATL area within the next hour
and will see clear skies by 20-24z across the entire area. Winds
are mainly out of the SW and will turn to the NW through this
evening. Wind speeds will stay in the 4-8kt range. Restrictions to
VSBYs are not expected in the ATL/CSG areas but may see some MVFR
VSBYs in AHN/MCN with the thin line of showers moving in over the
next few hours.

//ATL Confidence...Avi Update...
Confidence high on all elements.

01

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Athens          44  65  38  55 /   0   0   0   0
Atlanta         48  63  37  54 /   0   0   0   0
Blairsville     39  57  32  49 /   0   0   0   0
Cartersville    42  61  34  54 /   0   0   0   0
Columbus        47  67  38  60 /   0   0   0   0
Gainesville     45  60  37  53 /   0   0   0   0
Macon           44  70  39  61 /   0   0   0   0
Rome            42  61  34  55 /   0   0   0   0
Peachtree City  43  64  36  56 /   0   0   0   0
Vidalia         54  74  42  61 /  10   0   0   0

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

SHORT TERM...Vaughn
LONG TERM....King
AVIATION...01

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
446 AM EST Wed Jan 4 2023

GAZ001>009-011>016-019>025-027-030>039-041>062-066>076-078>086-
089>098-102>113-051000-
Baldwin-Banks-Barrow-Bartow-Bibb-Bleckley-Butts-Carroll-Catoosa-
Chattahoochee-Chattooga-Cherokee-Clarke-Clayton-Cobb-Coweta-
Crawford-Crisp-Dade-Dawson-DeKalb-Dodge-Dooly-Douglas-Emanuel-
Fannin-Fayette-Floyd-Forsyth-Gilmer-Glascock-Gordon-Greene-
Gwinnett-Hall-Hancock-Haralson-Harris-Heard-Henry-Houston-Jackson-
Jasper-Jefferson-Johnson-Jones-Lamar-Laurens-Lumpkin-Macon-
Madison-Marion-Meriwether-Monroe-Montgomery-Morgan-Murray-
Muscogee-Newton-North Fulton-Oconee-Oglethorpe-Paulding-Peach-
Pickens-Pike-Polk-Pulaski-Putnam-Rockdale-Schley-South Fulton-
Spalding-Stewart-Sumter-Talbot-Taliaferro-Taylor-Telfair-Toombs-
Towns-Treutlen-Troup-Twiggs-Union-Upson-Walker-Walton-Warren-
Washington-Webster-Wheeler-White-Whitfield-Wilcox-Wilkes-
Wilkinson-
446 AM EST Wed Jan 4 2023

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of North and
Central Georgia.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight...

Showers and thunderstorms will continue across north and central
Georgia this morning morning and afternoon ahead of an advancing
cold front. Several storms could become severe capable of
producing damaging wind gusts, brief tornadoes, and frequent
lightning. A Tornado Watch is in effect for areas to the south of
the I-20 corridor until 12 PM EST.

Locally heavy rainfall this morning and afternoon could lead to
flash flooding and river flooding concerns. A Flood Watch remains
in effect for portions of north and central Georgia until 7 PM
EST.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Thursday through Tuesday...

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not requested but spotters are encouraged
to submit reports of severe weather through the web by going to
weather.gov/atlanta.  Please relay any information about observed
severe weather to the NWS while following all local, state, and
CDC guidelines.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
1233 PM EST WED JAN 4 2023

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0957 AM     FLASH FLOOD      2 NE DOUGLASVILLE       33.77N 84.73W
01/04/2023                   DOUGLAS            GA   PUBLIC

            ROAD FLOODED AT HUEY RD AND INDUSTRIAL
            ACCESS ROAD.

&&

SM

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
1236 PM EST WED JAN 4 2023

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0957 AM     FLASH FLOOD      1 NW LITHIA SPRINGS     33.80N 84.67W
01/04/2023                   DOUGLAS            GA   EMERGENCY MNGR

            ROAD FLOODED AT UNION GROVE RD AND CREEL DR.

&&

SM

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
1240 PM EST WED JAN 4 2023

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0830 AM     TSTM WND DMG     4 N MILLEDGEVILLE       33.14N 83.22W
01/04/2023                   BALDWIN            GA   EMERGENCY MNGR

            MULTIPLE TREES DOWN IN NORTH BALDWIN COUNTY
            TO THE NORTH AND NORTHEAST OF MILLEDGEVILLE;
            INCLUDING ON/NEAR GREYSTONE DR, LONG ACRE
            RD, AND WATSON REYNOLDS RD.

&&

KJT

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
108 PM EST WED JAN 4 2023

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0620 AM     FLASH FLOOD      1 NE ROSWELL            34.04N 84.35W
01/04/2023                   FULTON             GA   EMERGENCY MNGR

            REPORT OF A WATER RESCUE NEAR THE
            INTERSECTION OF CROSSVILLE RD AND MANSELL RD
            AT 6:20 AM.

&&

KJT

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
147 PM EST WED JAN 4 2023

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0545 PM     TSTM WND DMG     4 S SANDTOWN            33.65N 84.55W
01/03/2023                   FULTON             GA   EMERGENCY MNGR

            SEVERAL REPORTS OF TREES AND/OR POWERLINES
            DOWN IN SOUTH FULTON COUNTY ON TUESDAY, IN
            THE AREA AROUND FAIRBURN AND UNION CITY,
            WEST OF THE I-85/I-285 INTERCHANGE. MOST
            SIGNIFICANT DAMAGE WAS OF A TREE DOWN
            THROUGH A HOUSE ON THAXTON RD SW.

&&

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
152 PM EST WED JAN 4 2023

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0545 AM     TSTM WND DMG     3 NNW UNION CITY        33.61N 84.58W
01/04/2023                   FULTON             GA   PUBLIC

            REPORTS OF A COUPLE TREES DOWN WEDNESDAY
            MORNING ON KOWETA RD AND ENON RD IN THE
            SOUTH FULTON AREA.

&&