River Flood Warning 10, NWS Atlanta, GA

527 
WGUS82 KFFC 041627
FLSFFC

Flood Statement
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
1127 AM EST Wed Jan 4 2023

...The Flood Warning is cancelled for the following rivers in 
Georgia...

  Two Run Creek near Kingston affecting Bartow County.

GAC015-041730-
/O.CAN.KFFC.FL.W.0010.000000T0000Z-230104T1627Z/
/KTRG1.1.ER.230104T1236Z.230104T1330Z.230104T1507Z.NR/
1127 AM EST Wed Jan 4 2023

...FLOOD WARNING IS CANCELLED...

The Flood Warning is cancelled for
  the Two Run Creek near Kingston.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...
  - At 11:00 AM EST Wednesday the stage was 7.8 feet and falling.
  - Forecast...No forecast is available for this location.
  - http://www.weather.gov/safety/flood

&&

LAT...LON 3430 8489 3428 8482 3422 8487 3420 8498
      3425 8498


$$

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
640 AM EST Wed Jan 4 2023

...New 12Z Aviation Discussion...

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Thursday)
Issued at 408 AM EST Wed Jan 4 2023

A tornado watch has been issued to start off the morning for a line
south of the I-20 corridor. The south and central regions of the CWA
are still seeing temperatures in the upper 60s and low 70s at the
time of this AFD. Any additional heating before the front arrives
will continue to prime the environment for another round of strong
to severe storms south I-20.

The primary threats in this morning's watch area will be damaging
winds and the possibility of isolated tornadoes. Moderate SBCAPE
values of 1500 J/KG and effective bulk shear exceeding 60kts. Any
storm that forms in this sector will also be working with SRH values
near 400 m2/s2 so rotation and mesocyclones can be expected even
with non tornado producing storms. We've already seen embedded
supercells in the line as it approaches, and conditions are
favorable for the formation of discrete supercells out ahead of the
line. The situation continue to evolve and remain complex, please
continue to monitor the forecast for the most up to date information
concerning on going watches and warnings.

A flood watch will remain in effect until Wednesday night, and
additional rainfall of up to two inches are possible with isolated
higher totals in areas of training storms. While no additional
counties have been added during this mornings forecast period, heavy
rain continues to fall just north of the metro ATL area and training
storms just north of I-20 will need to be watched closely for flash
flooding as more rain continues to fall.

The front should clear the area after 7PM today and and cooler
temperatures and clear weather will eventually push in for Thursday.
Temps in the mid to upper 60s will be likely for tomorrow as winds
turn more westerly, but we still remain around 10 degrees above
average; a trend that will likely continue through the long term.

Vaughn

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Thursday night through Tuesday)
Issued at 408 AM EST Wed Jan 4 2023

A comparatively cooler and drier airmass will be in place across
north and central Georgia as the extended period begins on Friday.
An upper level ridge and associated surface high will move over the
Southeast on Friday, which will keep weather conditions benign and
skies mostly clear across the region on Friday and Saturday. Low
temperatures are forecast to drop into the 30s across the forecast
area as the morning begins. Afternoon highs will still be 3-6
degrees above climatological normals, but no longer pushing record
values, rising into the mid 50s in north Georgia and upper 50s to
low 60s in central Georgia. After starting the morning in the mid
30s across the area on Saturday, temperatures will climb under the
influence of the ridge, reaching into the low to mid 60s across the
area in the afternoon.

A weak frontal system will drop into north Georgia on Saturday night
into Sunday. However, low-level moisture and instability continue to
appear limited across the area, so a slight chance of showers with
no thunderstorms has been maintained across north Georgia for
Saturday night into Sunday. The frontal boundary is anticipated to
sag into north Georgia before stalling and washing out early Monday.
Model guidance continues to diverge on the upper level flow pattern
during the early portions of next week. The potential remains for
additional waves to traverse the remnant boundary, so slight to low-
end chance PoPs have been maintained on Monday and Tuesday. The
potential for a wintry mix in the higher elevations of northeast
Georgia will need to be monitored at the tail-end of the period, as
there is a slight chance that precip overrunning the frontal zone
may overlap with border-line freezing temperatures in this area
Monday night into Tuesday morning.

King

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 639 AM EST Wed Jan 4 2023

The strongest TSRA has cleared ATL and continues to move East. TSRA
is still possible with gusty winds until 16Z today. Some lingering
RA will begin to dissipate after 18Z as WX clears the area. Some
gusts in remaining TSRA could be up to 20kts with IFR cigs in
convection and MVFR outside. CIGS should become VFR after 18Z.

//ATL Confidence...Avi Update...

Medium on WX timing end.
Medium to high on all other elements.

Vaughn

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Athens          44  65  38  55 /   0   0   0   0
Atlanta         48  63  37  54 /   0   0   0   0
Blairsville     39  57  32  49 /   0   0   0   0
Cartersville    42  61  34  54 /   0   0   0   0
Columbus        47  67  38  60 /   0   0   0   0
Gainesville     45  60  37  53 /   0   0   0   0
Macon           44  70  39  61 /   0   0   0   0
Rome            42  61  34  55 /   0   0   0   0
Peachtree City  43  64  36  56 /   0   0   0   0
Vidalia         54  74  42  61 /  20   0   0   0

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Flood Watch through this evening for GAZ008-009-013>016-021>025-
027-031>038-041>050-052>060-066>072-078>082-089>092-094-102-103.

&&

SHORT TERM...Vaughn
LONG TERM....King
AVIATION...Vaughn

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
446 AM EST Wed Jan 4 2023

GAZ001>009-011>016-019>025-027-030>039-041>062-066>076-078>086-
089>098-102>113-051000-
Baldwin-Banks-Barrow-Bartow-Bibb-Bleckley-Butts-Carroll-Catoosa-
Chattahoochee-Chattooga-Cherokee-Clarke-Clayton-Cobb-Coweta-
Crawford-Crisp-Dade-Dawson-DeKalb-Dodge-Dooly-Douglas-Emanuel-
Fannin-Fayette-Floyd-Forsyth-Gilmer-Glascock-Gordon-Greene-
Gwinnett-Hall-Hancock-Haralson-Harris-Heard-Henry-Houston-Jackson-
Jasper-Jefferson-Johnson-Jones-Lamar-Laurens-Lumpkin-Macon-
Madison-Marion-Meriwether-Monroe-Montgomery-Morgan-Murray-
Muscogee-Newton-North Fulton-Oconee-Oglethorpe-Paulding-Peach-
Pickens-Pike-Polk-Pulaski-Putnam-Rockdale-Schley-South Fulton-
Spalding-Stewart-Sumter-Talbot-Taliaferro-Taylor-Telfair-Toombs-
Towns-Treutlen-Troup-Twiggs-Union-Upson-Walker-Walton-Warren-
Washington-Webster-Wheeler-White-Whitfield-Wilcox-Wilkes-
Wilkinson-
446 AM EST Wed Jan 4 2023

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of North and
Central Georgia.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight...

Showers and thunderstorms will continue across north and central
Georgia this morning morning and afternoon ahead of an advancing
cold front. Several storms could become severe capable of
producing damaging wind gusts, brief tornadoes, and frequent
lightning. A Tornado Watch is in effect for areas to the south of
the I-20 corridor until 12 PM EST.

Locally heavy rainfall this morning and afternoon could lead to
flash flooding and river flooding concerns. A Flood Watch remains
in effect for portions of north and central Georgia until 7 PM
EST.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Thursday through Tuesday...

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not requested but spotters are encouraged
to submit reports of severe weather through the web by going to
weather.gov/atlanta.  Please relay any information about observed
severe weather to the NWS while following all local, state, and
CDC guidelines.

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
719 AM EST Wed Jan 4 2023

GAZ071-072-081-082-041245-
Monroe GA-Bibb GA-Crawford GA-Jones GA-
719 AM EST Wed Jan 4 2023

...Strong thunderstorms will impact portions of northwestern Bibb,
southern Monroe, north central Crawford and western Jones Counties
through 745 AM EST...

At 719 AM EST, a line of strong thunderstorms was along a line
extending from near Russellville to Musella, and moving east at 45
mph.

HAZARD...40 to 50 mph wind, frequent cloud to ground lightning and
         heavy rain.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Expect minor damage to tree limbs and blowing around of
         light, unsecured objects. Heavy rain may cause temporary
         street flooding especially in poor drainage areas.

Locations impacted include...
Macon, Forsyth, Gray, Payne, Payne City, Lake Tobesofkee,
Bolingbroke, Wayside, Dames Ferry, Russellville, Brent, Clinton,
Musella, Jarrell Plantation, Wesleyan, Lizella, Arkwright, Plant
Scherer and Juliette.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

People outdoors should seek shelter immediately. If you can hear
thunder, you are close enough to be struck by lightning. Motorists
should slow down and be prepared for possible loss of control due to
hydroplaning.

A Tornado Watch remains in effect until noon EST for central Georgia.

&&

LAT...LON 3277 8405 3300 8404 3316 8368 3315 8366
      3302 8353 3283 8365
TIME...MOT...LOC 1219Z 250DEG 39KT 3293 8403 3279 8403

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.00 IN
MAX WIND GUST...50 MPH

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
724 AM EST Wed Jan 4 2023

GAZ080-081-092-093-103-104-041300-
Macon GA-Schley GA-Taylor GA-Sumter GA-Crawford GA-Webster GA-
724 AM EST Wed Jan 4 2023

...Strong thunderstorms will impact portions of western Macon,
Webster, Crawford, Schley, western Sumter and central Taylor Counties
through 800 AM EST...

At 724 AM EST, a line of strong thunderstorms was along a line
extending from near Roberta to near Troutman, and moving east at 40
mph.

HAZARD...Up to 40 mph wind, frequent cloud to ground lightning and
         heavy rain.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Expect minor damage to tree limbs and blowing around of
         light, unsecured objects. Heavy rain may cause temporary
         street flooding especially in poor drainage areas.

Locations impacted include...
Americus, Butler, Ellaville, Roberta, Preston, Reynolds, Plains,
Ideal, Weston, Murrays Crossroads, Whitewater State Park, Nakomis,
Rupert, La Crosse, Leveretts, Friendship, Bumphead, Horns, Walls
Crossing and Kimbrough.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

People outdoors should seek shelter immediately. If you can hear
thunder, you are close enough to be struck by lightning. Motorists
should slow down and be prepared for possible loss of control due to
hydroplaning.

A Tornado Watch remains in effect until noon EST for central and west
central Georgia.

&&

LAT...LON 3197 8444 3192 8446 3192 8466 3201 8465
      3216 8454 3213 8453 3214 8443 3223 8443
      3223 8441 3229 8441 3230 8439 3235 8439
      3278 8406 3279 8385 3272 8380 3262 8387
      3253 8400 3251 8402 3251 8395 3191 8437
TIME...MOT...LOC 1224Z 250DEG 33KT 3275 8404 3195 8465

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.00 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
727 AM EST Wed Jan 4 2023

GAZ027-036>038-041330-
Madison GA-Oglethorpe GA-Clarke GA-Oconee GA-
727 AM EST Wed Jan 4 2023

...Strong thunderstorms with very heavy rain will impact portions of
southeastern Oconee, eastern Clarke, Oglethorpe and southeastern
Madison Counties through 830 AM EST...

At 726 AM EST, a line of strong thunderstorms with extremely heavy
rain was along a line extending from Carlton to Barnett Shoals, and
moving northeast at 55 mph.

HAZARD...Frequent cloud to ground lightning and heavy rain.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Lightning is one of nature's leading killers. If you can
         hear thunder, you are close enough to be struck by
         lightning. Heavy rain may cause minor flooding especially
         in poor drainage areas. Be prepared to take action if a
         Flood Warning is issued.

Locations impacted include...
Lexington, Comer, Winterville, Crawford, Colbert, Arnoldsville,
Carlton, Hull, Whitehall, Athens-Clarke County, Diamond Hill,
Smithonia, Hutchings, Barnett Shoals, Paoli, Dunlap, Watson Mill
Bridge State Park, Vesta and Point Peter.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

People outdoors should seek shelter immediately.  Electrical
appliances should not be used unless in an emergency. Motorists
should slow down and be prepared for possible loss of control due to
hydroplaning.

A Tornado Watch remains in effect until noon EST for east central
Georgia.

&&

LAT...LON 3393 8285 3392 8287 3390 8289 3372 8342
      3404 8334 3417 8311 3415 8306 3412 8305
      3411 8303 3410 8304 3408 8300 3405 8299
      3403 8293 3401 8294 3401 8291 3398 8286
      3399 8283
TIME...MOT...LOC 1226Z 244DEG 46KT 3403 8301 3383 8334

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.00 IN
MAX WIND GUST...<30 MPH

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
747 AM EST Wed Jan 4 2023

GAZ061-072-073-083-084-095-041315-
Wilkinson GA-Hancock GA-Baldwin GA-Houston GA-Jones GA-Twiggs GA-
747 AM EST Wed Jan 4 2023

...Strong thunderstorms will impact portions of Baldwin, northwestern
Wilkinson, Twiggs, south central Hancock, northeastern Houston and
southeastern Jones Counties through 815 AM EST...

At 747 AM EST, a line of strong thunderstorms was along a line
extending from Pancras to Warner Robins, and moving northeast at 50
mph.

HAZARD...40 to 50 mph wind, frequent cloud to ground lightning and
         heavy rain.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Expect minor damage to tree limbs and blowing around of
         light, unsecured objects. Heavy rain may cause temporary
         street flooding especially in poor drainage areas.

Locations impacted include...
Milledgeville, Jeffersonville, Warner Robins, Gordon, Ivey, McIntyre,
Robins AFB, Midway-Hardwick, Marion, Beulah, Robins Air Force Base,
Allenwood, Mountain Springs, District Path, Hardwick, Coopers,
Underwood, Bullard, Linton and Fitzpatrick.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

People outdoors should seek shelter immediately. If you can hear
thunder, you are close enough to be struck by lightning. Motorists
should slow down and be prepared for possible loss of control due to
hydroplaning.

A Tornado Watch remains in effect until noon EST for central and east
central Georgia.

&&

LAT...LON 3309 8299 3308 8305 3302 8307 3300 8305
      3257 8339 3256 8368 3267 8360 3267 8361
      3277 8354 3281 8349 3283 8350 3305 8336
      3327 8295 3318 8291
TIME...MOT...LOC 1247Z 235DEG 42KT 3301 8329 3259 8365

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.00 IN
MAX WIND GUST...50 MPH

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
758 AM EST WED JAN 4 2023

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0720 AM     TSTM WND DMG     2 E SALEM               32.75N 84.16W
01/04/2023                   CRAWFORD           GA   BROADCAST MEDIA

            REPORT OF TREES DOWN NEAR US 80 AND PLEASANT
            HILL CHURCH RD EAST OF SALEM, GA.

&&

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
800 AM EST Wed Jan 4 2023

GAZ083-095-096-104>107-041330-
Crisp GA-Dooly GA-Sumter GA-Houston GA-Bleckley GA-Twiggs GA-
Pulaski GA-
800 AM EST Wed Jan 4 2023

...Strong thunderstorms will impact portions of western Pulaski,
southern Twiggs, Dooly, western Bleckley, Houston, eastern Sumter and
western Crisp Counties through 830 AM EST...

At 759 AM EST, a line of strong thunderstorms was along a line
extending from near Houston Lake to near Smithville, and moving east
at 50 mph.

HAZARD...Up to 40 mph wind, frequent cloud to ground lightning and
         heavy rain.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Expect minor damage to tree limbs and blowing around of
         light, unsecured objects. Heavy rain may cause temporary
         street flooding especially in poor drainage areas.

Locations impacted include...
Perry, Cordele, Hawkinsville, Vienna, Warner Robins, Unadilla,
Byromville, Pinehurst, Leslie, Lilly, De Soto, Dooling, Desoto, Cobb,
Sumter, Lamar, Hayneville, Houston Lake, Mock Springs and Drayton.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

People outdoors should seek shelter immediately. If you can hear
thunder, you are close enough to be struck by lightning. Motorists
should slow down and be prepared for possible loss of control due to
hydroplaning.

A Tornado Watch remains in effect until noon EST for central and west
central Georgia.

&&

LAT...LON 3185 8394 3191 8392 3192 8428 3218 8406
      3217 8403 3225 8396 3229 8390 3229 8385
      3244 8385 3246 8383 3244 8383 3245 8380
      3251 8379 3251 8375 3253 8375 3252 8372
      3256 8372 3257 8323 3182 8384
TIME...MOT...LOC 1259Z 262DEG 45KT 3253 8368 3191 8422

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.00 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH