Severe Thunderstorm Warning 45, NWS Austin/San Antonio, TX

017 
WWUS54 KEWX 060315
SVSEWX

Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service Austin/San Antonio TX
1015 PM CDT Wed Apr 5 2023

TXC187-493-060400-
/O.CON.KEWX.SV.W.0045.000000T0000Z-230406T0400Z/
Guadalupe TX-Wilson TX-
1015 PM CDT Wed Apr 5 2023

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1100 PM CDT
FOR SOUTHEASTERN GUADALUPE AND NORTH CENTRAL WILSON COUNTIES...

At 1015 PM CDT, a severe thunderstorm was located over La Vernia, or
10 miles northwest of Stockdale, moving northeast at 25 mph.

HAZARD...Quarter size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Damage to vehicles is expected.

Locations impacted include...
Seguin, McQueeney, La Vernia, Kingsbury, New Berlin, Geronimo,
Sutherland Springs, Nolte and Zipp.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

For your protection move to an interior room on the lowest floor of a
building.

Continuous cloud to ground lightning is occurring with this storm.
Move indoors immediately. Lightning is one of nature's leading
killers. Remember, if you can hear thunder, you are close enough to
be struck by lightning.

&&

LAT...LON 2925 9805 2933 9819 2969 9796 2954 9772
      2953 9773
TIME...MOT...LOC 0315Z 217DEG 23KT 2935 9807 

HAIL THREAT...RADAR INDICATED
MAX HAIL SIZE...1.00 IN
WIND THREAT...RADAR INDICATED
MAX WIND GUST...<50 MPH

$$

BRADY

121 
WWUS54 KEWX 060322
SVSEWX

Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service Austin/San Antonio TX
1022 PM CDT Wed Apr 5 2023

TXC187-493-060332-
/O.CAN.KEWX.SV.W.0045.000000T0000Z-230406T0400Z/
Guadalupe TX-Wilson TX-
1022 PM CDT Wed Apr 5 2023

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR SOUTHEASTERN GUADALUPE AND
NORTH CENTRAL WILSON COUNTIES IS CANCELLED...
                
The storm which prompted the warning has weakened below severe
limits, and no longer poses an immediate threat to life or property.
Therefore, the warning has been cancelled.  However small hail is
still possible with this thunderstorm.

LAT...LON 2925 9805 2933 9819 2969 9796 2954 9772
      2953 9773
TIME...MOT...LOC 0321Z 217DEG 23KT 2939 9804 

$$

BRADY

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Austin/San Antonio TX
625 PM CDT Wed Apr 5 2023

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(Tonight through Thursday night)
Issued at 214 PM CDT Wed Apr 5 2023

Much drier air has filtered in behind the cold front early this
afternoon with dewpoints tanking into the 10s and 20s. This will
result in critical fire weather conditions despite some morning
rainfall over portions of the Red Flag Warning. Northerly winds of
15-25 mph with some gusts up over 30 mph will be common through the
early evening with minimum relative humidity values falling between
5% and 20%. Fire weather concerns should rapidly diminish after 4pm
when the RFW is set to expire as sfc winds relax due to a weakening
pressure gradient. We will quickly follow our fire concerns with
rain/flooding concerns into the next 24-36 hours.

Tonight and Thursday, expect northeasterly flow to continue at the
surface, but flow between 850mb and 200mb will be southwesterly.
This will lead to a textbook overrunning type setup with a series of
shortwaves rippling through the flow at 500mb over South-Central
Texas through the duration of the short term forecast period. This
will result in rounds of rain and thunderstorms with locally heavy
rain/low chance of flooding rain possible, especially over the
Coastal Plains, where guidance continues to depict the possibility
of totals in the 2-4" range through Friday morning. At this point,
severe weather is not expected, however, there does appear to be an
outside chance for a small hail report or two over the southern Rio
Grande Plains (south of Highway 90) on Thursday afternoon, with SPC
placing this region in a Marginal Risk (Level 1 of 5) for hail.
Additionally, with regard to the flooding threat, WPC does place the
Coastal Plains in a Day 1 Slight Risk ERO, with a Slight Risk
extending to the I-35 Corridor on Thursday.

Much cooler temperatures can also be expected for Thursday, as
overcast skies and cooler air filters into the area. Rain-cooled air
will also contribute to a lack of warming through the day, with
nearly steady temperatures in the upper 50s to around 60 through the
day Thursday. Thursday night will feature continued rounds of
showers and storms with temperatures falling into the upper 40s to
mid 50s.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Friday through Wednesday)
Issued at 214 PM CDT Wed Apr 5 2023

The frontal boundary will remain stalled near the coast and
isentropic upglide over the boundary will produce showers and
thunderstorms across the CWA Friday. Most of the locally heavy rain
will have ended as some drier air moves in from the northeast. An
additional half inch of rain will be possible in some places east of
I-35. The boundary will become progressive again Friday afternoon and
rain chances will decrease through the evening. Dry weather will
return by Saturday morning. We expect rainfall totals for the event
to be 1/4" to 1/2" over the southern Edwards Plateau and Rio Grande
Plains, 1" to 2" over the Hill Country, 2" to 3" over the I-35
corridor, and 3" to 4" over the Coastal Plains. WPC has included our
Coastal Plains counties in the Marginal Excessive Rain Outlook for
Friday. High pressure will move across the region over the weekend
keeping the weather dry into the start of next week. Temperatures
will warm each day Saturday through next Wednesday. Easter Sunday
will be partly cloudy and a little cool with temperatures a few
degrees below normal. Dry weather will continue into the work week
and temperatures will reach the middle 80s by Wednesday.

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 613 PM CDT Wed Apr 5 2023

The South-Central Texas I-35 TAF sites (KAUS, KSAT, KSSF) will see
deteriorating flight conditions later tonight through the end of the
TAF period (Thursday night) as rain and convection advances across
the region from the southeast. Ceilings and visibility will be
expected to gradually lower with the prevailing rain and occasional
thunderstorms to MVFR overnight then eventually IFR to near LIFR
during Thursday into Thursday night. With occasional thunderstorm
activity, have elected to go with VCTS at the sites rather than any
prevailing thunderstorm groups. Moderate northerly breezes should
continue of around 10 to 15 knots through the period.

KDRT will remain VFR through tonight and for most of Thursday with
increasing mid to high level clouds. MVFR ceilings are to develop
late Thursday afternoon towards the end of the TAF period from the
southeast. Additionally, shower chances gradually uptick Thursday
afternoon into Thursday where have elected to keep vicinity shower
chances within the TAF. Thunderstorm may be possible but overall
confidence is too low to insert into this TAF at this time. Winds
will generally trend out of the east to east-northeast around 5 to
10 knots at KDRT.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Austin Camp Mabry              51  57  51  59 /  50  80  80  80
Austin Bergstrom Intl Airport  51  57  50  58 /  60  90  80  80
New Braunfels Muni Airport     52  57  52  60 /  70  90  90  90
Burnet Muni Airport            49  57  49  57 /  20  70  70  70
Del Rio Intl Airport           55  68  56  65 /   0  40  50  70
Georgetown Muni Airport        49  57  49  57 /  40  80  80  80
Hondo Muni Airport             52  60  53  61 /  40  80  80  80
San Marcos Muni Airport        51  57  51  59 /  70  90  90  90
La Grange - Fayette Regional   54  60  54  59 /  80  90  90  90
San Antonio Intl Airport       52  58  52  60 /  60  90  80  90
Stinson Muni Airport           53  59  54  61 /  60  90  90  90

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

Short-Term...MMM
Long-Term...05
Aviation...Brady

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Austin/San Antonio TX
628 PM CDT Wed Apr 5 2023

TXZ171>173-183>194-202>209-217>225-228-062330-
Llano-Burnet-Williamson-Val Verde-Edwards-Real-Kerr-Bandera-
Gillespie-Kendall-Blanco-Hays-Travis-Bastrop-Lee-Kinney-Uvalde-
Medina-Bexar-Comal-Guadalupe-Caldwell-Fayette-Maverick-Zavala-
Frio-Atascosa-Wilson-Karnes-Gonzales-De Witt-Lavaca-Dimmit-
628 PM CDT Wed Apr 5 2023

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for South-Central Texas..

.DAY ONE...Tonight.

Isolated strong to severe storms are possible tonight across the
coastal plains region.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Thursday through Tuesday.

Thursday through Friday night, multiple rounds of showers and
thunderstorms are expected. Isolated strong storms are possible
across most of south central Texas on Friday. Heavy rains are
possible mainly along and east of the I-35 corridor. Minor
flooding may become possible.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not anticipated.

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Austin/San Antonio TX
950 PM CDT Wed Apr 5 2023

TXZ207-220-221-060330-
Guadalupe TX-Atascosa TX-Wilson TX-
950 PM CDT Wed Apr 5 2023

...Strong thunderstorms will impact portions of south central
Guadalupe, central Atascosa and Wilson Counties through 1030 PM
CDT...

At 950 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking strong thunderstorms along
a line extending from 6 miles west of Sutherland Springs to near
Leming. Movement was northeast at 20 mph.

HAZARD...Nickel size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Minor damage to outdoor objects is possible.

Locations impacted include...
Seguin, Pleasanton, Floresville, Stockdale, Elmendorf, La Vernia,
Kingsbury, New Berlin, Sutherland Springs, Canada Verde and Graytown.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

These storms may intensify, so be certain to monitor local radio
stations and available television stations for additional information
and possible warnings from the National Weather Service.

&&

LAT...LON 2894 9849 2914 9838 2932 9824 2965 9786
      2916 9790
TIME...MOT...LOC 0250Z 205DEG 17KT 2925 9816 2906 9842

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.88 IN
MAX WIND GUST...<30 MPH

BRADY

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Austin/San Antonio TX
951 PM CDT Wed Apr 5 2023

TXZ220-060330-
Atascosa TX-
951 PM CDT Wed Apr 5 2023

...A strong thunderstorm will impact portions of southeastern
Atascosa County through 1030 PM CDT...

At 951 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 7
miles north of Crowther, or 7 miles southeast of Christine, moving
northeast at 30 mph.

HAZARD...Nickel size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Minor damage to outdoor objects is possible.

Locations impacted include...
Campbellton and McCoy.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

&&

LAT...LON 2864 9834 2864 9855 2905 9835 2883 9814
      2862 9833
TIME...MOT...LOC 0251Z 209DEG 24KT 2869 9842

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.88 IN
MAX WIND GUST...<30 MPH

BRADY

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Austin/San Antonio TX
953 PM CDT Wed Apr 5 2023

TXZ223>225-060345-
Lavaca TX-De Witt TX-Gonzales TX-
953 PM CDT Wed Apr 5 2023

...A strong thunderstorm will impact portions of north central
DeWitt, southeastern Gonzales and northwestern Lavaca Counties
through 1045 PM CDT...

At 953 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
Cheapside, or 9 miles northwest of Cuero, moving northeast at 35 mph.

HAZARD...Nickel size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Minor damage to outdoor objects is possible.

Locations impacted include...
Yoakum, Hallettsville, Shiner, Moulton, Hochheim, Cheapside,
Westhoff, Worthing, Henkhaus, Glaze City, Newtonville, Breslau,
Nickle, Dilworth, Dreyer, Witting, Mount Olive, Hamon, Wied and
Concrete.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

This storm may intensify, so be certain to monitor local radio
stations and available television stations for additional information
and possible warnings from the National Weather Service.

&&

LAT...LON 2912 9737 2920 9752 2967 9721 2948 9691
TIME...MOT...LOC 0253Z 219DEG 31KT 2922 9738

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.88 IN
MAX WIND GUST...<30 MPH

BRADY

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
955 PM CDT WED APR 5 2023

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0948 PM     HAIL             4 NNW FLORESVILLE       29.19N 98.17W
04/05/2023  E0.88 INCH       WILSON             TX   PUBLIC

&&

MB

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
956 PM CDT WED APR 5 2023

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0945 PM     HAIL             4 NE LEMING             29.11N 98.43W
04/05/2023  E0.50 INCH       ATASCOSA           TX   PUBLIC

&&

MB

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Austin/San Antonio TX
1002 PM CDT Wed Apr 5 2023

TXZ194-060345-
Lee TX-
1002 PM CDT Wed Apr 5 2023

...A strong thunderstorm will impact portions of southeastern Lee
County through 1045 PM CDT...

At 1002 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
Giddings, moving northeast at 30 mph.

HAZARD...Nickel size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Minor damage to outdoor objects is possible.

Locations impacted include...
Giddings, Dime Box, Lake Somerville State Park & Trailway, Old Dime
Box, Lincoln and Loebau.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

This storm may intensify, so be certain to monitor local radio
stations and available television stations for additional information
and possible warnings from the National Weather Service.

&&

LAT...LON 3014 9691 3027 9705 3044 9687 3043 9687
      3043 9685 3039 9679 3032 9674 3032 9669
      3030 9667
TIME...MOT...LOC 0302Z 227DEG 27KT 3026 9693

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.88 IN
MAX WIND GUST...<30 MPH

BRADY