Flash Flood Warning 4, NWS Austin/San Antonio, TX

989 
WGUS74 KEWX 070051
FFSEWX

Flash Flood Statement
National Weather Service Austin/San Antonio TX
751 PM CDT Thu Apr 6 2023

TXC177-255-493-070101-
/O.CAN.KEWX.FF.W.0004.000000T0000Z-230407T0100Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
Gonzales TX-Karnes TX-Wilson TX-
751 PM CDT Thu Apr 6 2023

...FLASH FLOOD WARNING IS CANCELLED FOR CENTRAL GONZALES, 
NORTHWESTERN KARNES AND SOUTHEASTERN WILSON COUNTIES...

The heavy rain has ended. Flooding is no longer expected to pose a 
threat. Please continue to heed remaining road closures.

LAT...LON 2895 9809 2929 9780 2964 9749 2953 9731
      2917 9768 2889 9794

$$

27

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Austin/San Antonio TX
211 PM CDT Thu Apr 6 2023

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM...

.SHORT TERM...
(Tonight through Friday night)
Issued at 203 PM CDT Thu Apr 6 2023

Latest GOES 16 DC-Type mesosector imagery shows this mornings'
convection lifting off to the northeast, with some breaks behind it
over the I-35 Corridor and westward into the Rio Grande Plains.
Latest suite of CAMs initiated quite well, with a secondary round of
showers and embedded thunderstorms expected to develop along I-37
and southward through Corpus Christi, then lift northward through
the Coastal Plains and I-35 Corridor this afternoon through early
evening. Mid-level lapse rates remain fairly steep, around 7.0 to
7.5 C/km, and given the continued overrunning setup with
southwesterly flow from 850mb and up and northeasterly flow at the
sfc, we should continue to see rounds of rain and thunderstorms,
with a localized flooding threat being the primary concern. Some
small hail is also possible, especially over the Coastal Plains
where SPC has trimmed the day 1 outlook to just include that region
in the Marginal Risk. Meanwhile, WPC does include a good chunk of
the CWA in the day 1 Slight Risk for excessive rainfall, with
amounts between 1-3 inches for most locations from the I-35 Corridor
and eastward. Some locally higher amounts have been noted,
especially over the Coastal Plains, where a amounts could exceed 5"
for some spots.

Friday will bring continued rain and storm chances, but amounts
should be lower as upper level support starts to wane. Temperatures
will remain quite cold for early April with highs in the 50s for
many. Any rain should exit the area from west to east by 06Z
Saturday.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Saturday through Thursday)
Issued at 203 PM CDT Thu Apr 6 2023

There may be a few light showers along and east of Highway 183 by
dawn on Saturday, otherwise, expect dry weather conditions across
south central Texas for most of the day and evening. Highs are
forecast to be in the upper 60s to mid 70s along the Rio Grande. Dry
weather conditions continue into Sunday with warmer highs in the 70s
over most locations with up to 80 degrees along the Rio Grande.

Rain chances return to the southern Edwards Plateau and Rio Grande
on Monday as increased moisture from the Gulf of Mexico spreads to
those areas. The passing of an upper level short wave axis could aid
to generate an isolated thunderstorm or two.

Continued the focus for rain across the Rio Grande on Tuesday as
another upper level short wave axis moves across the area. However,
dry weather conditions arrive on Wednesday and stay like that for
the remainder of the work week. By Thursday, highs are forecast to
be in the 80s across all of south central Texas.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1200 PM CDT Thu Apr 6 2023

The latest thinking is that storms will redevelop south of the
SAT/SSF terminals by 19Z-20Z and move through and up through AUS as
well. Have gone with a TEMPO group between 20Z-00Z with TSRA at all
three I-35 sites. IFR ceilings are likely this afternoon and
stretching into the overnight hours as well. At DRT, expect VFR
ceilings through sunset, followed by the development of MVFR and a
chance for VCTS and -RA to move in after 06Z.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Austin Camp Mabry              50  58  51  70 /  90  80  30   0
Austin Bergstrom Intl Airport  49  56  50  69 /  80  80  30   0
New Braunfels Muni Airport     51  59  51  71 /  80  80  20   0
Burnet Muni Airport            47  55  48  68 /  80  80  30   0
Del Rio Intl Airport           55  61  54  76 /  40  60  10   0
Georgetown Muni Airport        48  56  49  68 /  90  80  30   0
Hondo Muni Airport             51  59  51  73 /  70  80  20   0
San Marcos Muni Airport        50  57  50  70 /  90  70  20   0
La Grange - Fayette Regional   53  58  52  67 /  90  80  30   0
San Antonio Intl Airport       52  59  52  71 /  80  80  20   0
Stinson Muni Airport           53  60  53  72 /  80  80  20   0

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

Short-Term...MMM
Long-Term...17
Aviation...MMM

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Austin/San Antonio TX
330 AM CDT Thu Apr 6 2023

TXZ171>173-183>194-202>209-217>225-228-071215-
Llano-Burnet-Williamson-Val Verde-Edwards-Real-Kerr-Bandera-
Gillespie-Kendall-Blanco-Hays-Travis-Bastrop-Lee-Kinney-Uvalde-
Medina-Bexar-Comal-Guadalupe-Caldwell-Fayette-Maverick-Zavala-
Frio-Atascosa-Wilson-Karnes-Gonzales-De Witt-Lavaca-Dimmit-
330 AM CDT Thu Apr 6 2023

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for South-Central Texas..

.DAY ONE...Today And Tonight.

Isolated strong to severe storms are possible today as widespread
rain moves into the region. Hail will be the main threat as well
as locally heavy rain east of the I35 corridor.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Wednesday.

Multiple rounds of showers and thunderstorms are expected through
Friday night. Isolated strong storms are possible across most of
south central Texas on Friday. Heavy rains are possible mainly
along and east of the I-35 corridor. Minor flooding may become
possible.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not anticipated.

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Austin/San Antonio TX
200 PM CDT Thu Apr 6 2023

TXZ221>224-061945-
Karnes TX-De Witt TX-Gonzales TX-Wilson TX-
200 PM CDT Thu Apr 6 2023

...A strong thunderstorm will impact portions of west central DeWitt,
northeastern Karnes, southwestern Gonzales and east central Wilson
Counties through 245 PM CDT...

At 200 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
Cestohowa, or 9 miles northeast of Karnes City, moving northeast at
40 mph.

HAZARD...Half inch hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Minor damage to outdoor objects is possible.

Locations impacted include...
Nixon, Smiley, Cestohowa, Gillett, Westhoff, Gruenau, New Davy,
Ecleto, Sample, Helena and Pana Maria.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

This storm may intensify, so be certain to monitor local radio
stations and available television stations for additional information
and possible warnings from the National Weather Service.

&&

LAT...LON 2887 9780 2898 9796 2942 9767 2921 9736
TIME...MOT...LOC 1900Z 218DEG 34KT 2900 9782

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.50 IN
MAX WIND GUST...<30 MPH

BF