Severe Thunderstorm Warning 11, NWS Kansas City, MO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
641 AM CDT Fri Mar 31 2023

.Update...
Issued at 631 AM CDT FRI MAR 31 2023

A short wave trough embedded within the southwesterly flow aloft
is making its way toward the forecast area early this morning. The
features of this wave are pretty subtle, but there does appear to
be a response from this wave occurring in south central  Kansas,
where deep-ish convection is currently taking place. As this wave
moves closer expect coverage in thunderstorms to increase, with
scattered convection moving through eastern Kansas and western
Missouri through the morning hours. Forecast soundings indicate a
good inversion in place despite the good early morning mixing, but
this should keep this morning convection elevated. MU CAPE around
1500 to 2000 J/kg and effective deep layer shear around 40 kts
will be plenty to support organized and robust updrafts. The
primary concern with this morning round of storms will be hail,
likely around quarter-sized, but with the low levels decently
mixed and already gusting near 40 mph it will not take much to
increase wind speed beyond severe thunderstorm criteria of 60 mph.
Tornadoes with the morning activity are unlikely and will probably
be relegated to any afternoon thunderstorms that form in a warmer
and better mixed environment.

&&

.Discussion...
Issued at 326 AM CDT FRI MAR 31 2023

Overview:

1. High wind warning issued for today for winds gusting as high as
60 mph this afternoon.

2. Severe storms expected to develop across central Missouri and
track northeast this afternoon. Even stronger wind gusts along with
hail can be expected in some storms. A tornado cannot be ruled out.

3. A Red Flag Warning has been issued for western parts of the area
where strong winds will combine with relative humidities below
30% later this afternoon.

Today:

A very active forecast in the next 24 hours. An intense upper low
will push to the northeast of the area today and will bring
multiple hazards to the area as it passes. Overnight we saw rounds
of showers and a few thunderstorms as isentropic ascent occurred
over the area. In addition, winds remained quite strong through
the overnight as an intense low level jet developed and mixing
continued through the overnight. Gusts up to 45 mph will continue
to be possible as we head toward daybreak.

As the sun rises our attention will turn to a deepening surface
low in eastern Nebraska tracking east into Iowa through the day.
As it shifts east expect winds to further increase as strong
upper winds continue to mix down along with a tightening surface
gradient ahead of the approaching system. Expect winds to gust as
high as 55-60 mph from the late morning through the afternoon,
especially in locations east of highway I-35 and south of the KC
Metro. With these strong winds expected, have upgraded parts of
the area to a High Wind Warning. In addition to the strong winds,
thunderstorms development looks possible by late morning across
the area, primarily east of the KC Metro. A few short term models
hint at the potential for early morning convection which would
likely remain elevated until later in the day. In general though,
leaning toward the solution of slightly later storm development
closer to noon time when we can reach convective temperatures.
Expect some storms to be strong to severe with afternoon CAPE of
1000-2000 J/Kg and bulk shear of 50+ knots. Initially, storm mode
looks to be supercellular, especially farther north closer to the
low. Wind profiles look primarily unidirectional, but a slight
turn in the low levels leave a non zero tornado risk in our far
northeastern counties. This would include the Kirksville,
Chillicothe, and Moberly area. Storms will likely not remain
discrete too long with a merge to a line of storms possible as
the storms move out of the area and the cold front approaches. In
addition to a tornado threat, the biggest threat would be severe
winds with any storm that develops. With winds already quite
strong, it won't take much to mix down even stronger severe winds
with a few of theses storms. Large hail also can be expected,
especially early on when updrafts are more discrete. Storms are
expected to quickly shift east of the area by mid to late
afternoon.

Winds will remain gusty after the passage of the cold front in the
afternoon. Behind the front, a much drier air mass will quickly
infiltrate the area. Relative humidities will quickly drop into
the 20-30% range and remain there for a few hours. This could lead
to a few hours of elevated fire weather conditions with dry
airmass and wind gusts of 45+ continuing to be possible. With
these concerns, a Red Flag Warning has been issued for western
parts of the area from 1pm through 10pm. There are a few positives
though with greening fuels and recent rainfall. Also, the window
for strong winds and low RH should be limited to a few hours
Friday afternoon, with improving conditions after sunset.

The rest of the forecast:

Winds should remain gusty through the
overnight, but should quickly decrease after sunrise Saturday.
Pleasant weather is expected over the weekend as an upper ridge sets
up over the area. Saturday will see sunny skies with highs in the
50s across the area. Sunday will be even warmer with highs
reaching the low to mid 70s. Above average temperatures are
expected as we head into next week, but we will be looking at
another system bringing additional shower and thunderstorms
chances on Tuesday.

&&

.Aviation...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Saturday Morning)
Issued at 631 AM CDT FRI MAR 31 2023

Strong southerly winds will continue through the rest of the day
with gusts approaching 50 kts. A round of thunderstorms will skirt
the terminals to the south and west, which will put KMCI/KMKC/KIXD
near some quickly moving showers, with KSTJ remaining just to the
north of the area of morning showers. A stiff wind shift occurs
this afternoon with winds coming from the west around 30 to 40 kts
for the remainder of the forecast period.

&&

.Fire Weather...
Issued at 631 AM CDT FRI MAR 31 2023

A Red Flag Warning is issued for this afternoon with relative
humidities dropping to around 25% for western parts of the area.
Additionally, wind will be gusting out of the southwest up to
50mph. Winds will gradually turn to the northwest with gusts
continuing after sunset. Expect RH to improve to 40% and higher
by 10 pm this evening.

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...Wind Advisory until 7 PM CDT this evening for KSZ025-103>105.

     Red Flag Warning from 1 PM this afternoon to 9 PM CDT this
     evening for KSZ025-057-060-102>105.

     Wind Advisory until 1 PM CDT this afternoon for KSZ057-060.

     High Wind Warning from 1 PM this afternoon to 7 PM CDT this
     evening for KSZ057-060.

     Wind Advisory until 10 AM CDT Saturday for KSZ102.

MO...Wind Advisory until 7 PM CDT this evening for MOZ028-029-037.

     Red Flag Warning from 1 PM this afternoon to 9 PM CDT this
     evening for MOZ020>022-028>031-037>039-043>045-053-054.

     Wind Advisory until 1 PM CDT this afternoon for MOZ043-053-054.

     High Wind Warning from 1 PM this afternoon to 7 PM CDT this
     evening for MOZ043-053-054.

     Wind Advisory until 10 AM CDT Saturday for MOZ001>005-011>015-
     020>023-030-031-038-044.

     Wind Advisory from 1 PM this afternoon to 10 AM CDT Saturday for
     MOZ006>008-016-017-024-025-032-033-039-040-045-046.

     Wind Advisory from 7 PM this evening to 10 AM CDT Saturday for
     MOZ054.

&&

Update...Leighton
Discussion...HB
Aviation...Leighton
Fire Weather...HB/Leighton

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
500 AM CDT Fri Mar 31 2023

KSZ025-057-060-102>105-MOZ001>008-011>017-020>025-028>033-037>040-
043>046-053-054-011000-
Atchison KS-Miami-Linn KS-Doniphan-Leavenworth-Wyandotte-Johnson KS-
Atchison MO-Nodaway-Worth-Gentry-Harrison-Mercer-Putnam-Schuyler-
Holt-Andrew-De Kalb-Daviess-Grundy-Sullivan-Adair-Buchanan-Clinton-
Caldwell-Livingston-Linn MO-Macon-Platte-Clay-Ray-Carroll-Chariton-
Randolph-Jackson-Lafayette-Saline-Howard-Cass-Johnson MO-Pettis-
Cooper-Bates-Henry-
500 AM CDT Fri Mar 31 2023

This hazardous weather outlook is for northwest...north central and
west central Missouri...as well as extreme eastern Kansas.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight

Severe storms are expected later this afternoon, mainly east of
Interstate 35. The best chance for widespread severe storms will be
in central and northeastern Missouri later this afternoon, into the
evening. Tornadoes, strong wind, and large hail will be possible
with this activity.

 Winds out of the south will continue through the day around 30 to 40
mph, with gusts approaching 50 to 60 mph at times. This will combine
with dry conditions to create strong fire weather concerns through
the day and overnight tonight.

Winds continue later tonight, into early Saturday morning out of the
west around 30 to 40 mph, with gusts around 50 mph.

 More detailed information can be accessed at...
 https://www.weather.gov/eax/hwo

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Saturday through Thursday

The next chance for thunderstorms comes Monday and Tuesday next week.
Strong to severe storms may be possible on Tuesday.

 More detailed information can be accessed at...
 https://www.weather.gov/eax/hwo

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
911 AM CDT FRI MAR 31 2023

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0908 AM     HAIL             2 N PLEASANT HILL       38.81N 94.26W
03/31/2023  M0.70 INCH       CASS               MO   NWS EMPLOYEE

&&

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
919 AM CDT Fri Mar 31 2023

MOZ044-311445-
Johnson MO-
919 AM CDT Fri Mar 31 2023

...A strong thunderstorm will impact portions of central Johnson
County through 945 AM CDT...

At 918 AM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
Kingsville, or near Holden, moving northeast at 65 mph.

HAZARD...Nickel size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Minor damage to outdoor objects is possible.

Locations impacted include...
Warrensburg, Holden, Kingsville, Centerview, Fayetteville, La Tour
and Quick City.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

&&

LAT...LON 3857 9407 3857 9412 3876 9412 3891 9389
      3891 9384 3894 9383 3893 9367 3872 9365
      3856 9406
TIME...MOT...LOC 1418Z 227DEG 55KT 3867 9410

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.88 IN
MAX WIND GUST...<30 MPH

Blair

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
1113 AM CDT Fri Mar 31 2023

MOZ045-311645-
Pettis MO-
1113 AM CDT Fri Mar 31 2023

...A strong thunderstorm will impact portions of southeastern Pettis
County through 1145 AM CDT...

At 1113 AM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
Green Ridge, or near Windsor, moving northeast at 60 mph.

HAZARD...Nickel size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Minor damage to outdoor objects is possible.

Locations impacted include...
Sedalia, Windsor, Smithton, Green Ridge and Sedalia Memorial Arpt.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

&&

LAT...LON 3862 9351 3893 9305 3860 9307 3851 9336
      3851 9351
TIME...MOT...LOC 1613Z 226DEG 53KT 3856 9344

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.88 IN
MAX WIND GUST...<30 MPH

Blair

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
1115 AM CDT Fri Mar 31 2023

MOZ038-311645-
Lafayette MO-
1115 AM CDT Fri Mar 31 2023

...A strong thunderstorm will impact portions of eastern Lafayette
County through 1145 AM CDT...

At 1114 AM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm over
Oak Grove, moving northeast at 60 mph.

HAZARD...Nickel size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Minor damage to outdoor objects is possible.

Locations impacted include...
Higginsville, Waverly, Corder, Alma, Blackburn, Mayview, Dover and
Aullville.

This includes Interstate 70 in Missouri between mile markers 42 and
57.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

&&

LAT...LON 3892 9384 3904 9390 3925 9364 3924 9359
      3921 9355 3921 9348 3905 9349 3894 9368
      3894 9383
TIME...MOT...LOC 1614Z 226DEG 53KT 3895 9381

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.88 IN
MAX WIND GUST...<30 MPH

Blair

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
1133 AM CDT Fri Mar 31 2023

MOZ005-014-311700-
Daviess MO-Harrison MO-
1133 AM CDT Fri Mar 31 2023

...A strong thunderstorm will impact portions of northern Daviess and
southeastern Harrison Counties through NOON CDT...

At 1133 AM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm over
Pattonsburg, or 12 miles northwest of Gallatin, moving northeast at
45 mph.

HAZARD...Penny size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Minor damage to outdoor objects is possible.

Locations impacted include...
Gilman City, Pattonsburg, Coffey, Jameson and Mount Moriah.

This includes Interstate 35 in Missouri between mile markers 70 and
89.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

&&

LAT...LON 4037 9376 4004 9377 3993 9420 4003 9420
      4004 9421 4010 9422 4039 9377
TIME...MOT...LOC 1633Z 229DEG 41KT 4004 9413

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.75 IN
MAX WIND GUST...<30 MPH

Blair

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