Tornado Warning 45, NWS Quad Cities, IA

949 
WWUS53 KDVN 202125
SVSDVN

Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service Quad Cities IA/IL
425 PM CDT Thu Apr 20 2023

ILC073-202135-
/O.CAN.KDVN.TO.W.0045.000000T0000Z-230420T2145Z/
Henry IL-
425 PM CDT Thu Apr 20 2023

...THE TORNADO WARNING FOR SOUTHEASTERN HENRY COUNTY IS CANCELLED...
    
The tornadic thunderstorm which prompted the warning has moved out 
of the warned area. Therefore, the warning has been cancelled.

A Tornado Watch remains in effect until 800 PM CDT for north central
and northwestern Illinois.

LAT...LON 4121 8955 4120 8964 4123 8964 4123 8986
      4128 8986 4128 8985 4138 8960 4131 8954
TIME...MOT...LOC 2125Z 251DEG 33KT 4126 8974 

$$

ILC011-202145-
/O.CON.KDVN.TO.W.0045.000000T0000Z-230420T2145Z/
Bureau IL-
425 PM CDT Thu Apr 20 2023

...A TORNADO WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 445 PM CDT FOR
SOUTHWESTERN BUREAU COUNTY...
    
At 425 PM CDT, a severe thunderstorm capable of producing a tornado
was located near Neponset, or 9 miles east of Kewanee, moving east at
40 mph.

HAZARD...Tornado and half dollar size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated rotation.

IMPACT...Flying debris will be dangerous to those caught without 
         shelter. Mobile homes will be damaged or destroyed. Damage 
         to roofs, windows, and vehicles will occur.  Tree damage is 
         likely.

This dangerous storm will be near...
  Buda and Providence around 435 PM CDT.

Other locations in the path of this tornadic thunderstorm include
Wyanet.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

TAKE COVER NOW! Move to a basement or an interior room on the lowest
floor of a sturdy building. Avoid windows. If you are outdoors, in a
mobile home, or in a vehicle, move to the closest substantial shelter
and protect yourself from flying debris.

Torrential rainfall is occurring with this storm, and may lead to
flash flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded roadways.

&&

LAT...LON 4121 8955 4120 8964 4123 8964 4123 8986
      4128 8986 4128 8985 4138 8960 4131 8954
TIME...MOT...LOC 2125Z 251DEG 33KT 4126 8974 

TORNADO...RADAR INDICATED
MAX HAIL SIZE...1.25 IN

$$

Gibbs

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Quad Cities IA IL
202 PM CDT Thu Apr 20 2023

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 159 PM CDT Thu Apr 20 2023

Latest sfc analysis was indicating a low center currently acrs
northeast IA/far southeast MN, with trailing front down along and
west of the DVN CWA placing the local area in the warm sector.
Morning convective debris with passing MCV has dissipated, but pre
to post-frontal stratocu deck has filled in acrs much of the CWA
from the west. Some wake low wind phenomena going on acars eastern
IA behind the MCV decay with southwest gusts of 40-50 MPH. SBCAPEs
are growing acrs the southeastern third of the CWA with sfc DPTS
rising to near 60 along with some cloud break heating. Deep shear
profiles are ranging from 50 to 65+ KTs, thus the slight risk
along and east of the MS RVR looks warranted.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Friday)
Issued at 159 PM CDT Thu Apr 20 2023

Afternoon and Tonight...Combo of 1000-1500 J/kg MUCAPEs and strong
storm bearing shear profiles support the severe risk along and east
of the MS RVR/west central into NW IL, with all modes of severe
possible including tornadoes with thermodynamic/kinematic profiles
supporting supercell structures. Most prime looking areas for this
activity appear to be along an east of a Kahoka MO, to Burlington IA
to Sterling IL line thru 6-7 PM before moving off to the east. After
storms clear off to the east, breezy post-frontal west winds of 15
to 30 mph for much of the evening, before decreasing after midnight
into early Friday morning. Cool air advection to usher in low temps
in the mid to upper 30s northwest, to the low to mid 40s in the
southeast.

Friday...Stacking cyclonic flow and very steep LLVL lapse rates up
to H85 or even H8 MB to drive breezy WSW sfc winds of 15 to 25 MPH
and gusts to 35 MPH. These parameters also to make the most of
cooling thermal profiles with some insolation to produce high temps
in the low 50s northwest, to the mid 60s southeast. Some sctrd wrap
around instability showers possible especially in the northwest in
the afternoon, and with classic looking inverted-V fcst soundings,
the showers may produce enhanced downward mixed wind gusts up to 50
MPH.  ..12..

.LONG TERM...(Friday night through Thursday)
Issued at 159 PM CDT Thu Apr 20 2023

Key Messages:

1. Temperatures Friday night through Monday morning near freezing
with frost and or freeze headlines possible across eastern Iowa,
northwest Illinois, and far northeast Missouri.

2. Below normal temperatures through the period with Saturday .

Discussion:

A closed 500 mb low will sit across the Upper Midwest through
Sunday. Spokes of vorticity rotating around the upper level low will
bring clouds to the area along with the potential for showers
especially Friday night into Saturday morning. Temperatures aloft
are cooling enough that any showers Friday night would be a mix of
rain and snow or rain, snow, and sleet. Little if any accumulation
is expected. This will also keep temperatures from bottoming out
Friday night although temperatures below freezing are possible
west of a line from Memphis Missouri to Dubuque Iowa.

Models show the 500 MB low slowly lifting northward through the day
on Saturday which will lift the clouds farther to the north.  this
may lead to continue showers during the day on Saturday. It will be
noticeably cooler with temperatures in the 40s. With clouds
clearing, temperatures will quickly fall off with the possibility of
widespread temperatures below freezing across the entire area. A
slight rebound in temperatures will occur on Sunday with high
temperatures in the upper 40s to lower 50s.

Monday through Wednesday some uncertainty in the forecast as a
shortwave trough passes to our south with some ridging building into
our area ahead of this shortwave. This will keep the precipitation
to our south through the period.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Friday afternoon)
Issued at 1240 PM CDT Thu Apr 20 2023

Gusty wake low winds up to 40 KTs from the southwest behind
decaying morning showers/storms through 2 pm, then decreasing some
to 20-30 KTs later this afternoon. Will have to watch for sctrd
thunderstorm development ahead of an incoming front this
afternoon, especially along and east of the MS RVR. Mainly VFR
clouds with a few bouts of MVFR CIGs/VSBYs possible with this
activity this afternoon, before improving later tonight. VFR late
night into Friday morning after post-frontal MVFR cloud deck
moves off to the east.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
Issued at 159 PM CDT Thu Apr 20 2023

The 2023 Spring Snowmelt Flood will continue to work its way down
the main stem Mississippi River over the next couple of weeks.

All points on the Mississippi River continue to rise today. This
morning, we upgraded the flood warnings on the Mississippi River at
Fulton, Gladstone, and Burlington from Moderate to Major Flood. The
Major Flood is maintained at the other locations on the Mississippi
River over the next 7 days. Additional rises are expected beyond the
7-day forecast.

&&

.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...NONE.
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

SYNOPSIS...12
SHORT TERM...12
LONG TERM...Cousins
AVIATION...12
HYDROLOGY...Cousins

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Quad Cities IA IL
1141 AM CDT Thu Apr 20 2023

IAZ040>042-051>054-063>068-076>078-087>089-098-099-ILZ001-002-007-
009-015>018-024>026-034-035-MOZ009-010-211100-
Buchanan-Delaware-Dubuque-Benton-Linn-Jones-Jackson-Iowa-Johnson-
Cedar-Clinton-Muscatine-Scott-Keokuk-Washington-Louisa-Jefferson-
Henry IA-Des Moines-Van Buren-Lee-Jo Daviess-Stephenson-Carroll-
Whiteside-Rock Island-Henry IL-Bureau-Putnam-Mercer-Henderson-
Warren-Hancock-McDonough-Scotland-Clark-
1141 AM CDT Thu Apr 20 2023

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of north central
Illinois...northwest Illinois...west central Illinois...east
central Iowa...northeast Iowa...southeast Iowa and northeast
Missouri.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

There is a Slight Risk or level 2 out of 5, for severe storms this
afternoon generally along and east of the Mississippi River.
Large hail, isolated tornadoes and damaging wind will be the
primary risks in the slight risk area. The rest of the Outlook
Area is in a Marginal Risk or level 1 for severe weather. Large
hail and damaging winds will be the primary threats in the
marginal risk areas. Localized heavy rain will also be possible
across much of the Outlook Area.

Locations along the Mississippi River will begin to experience
flooding this week. Please see the latest Flood Statements and
Flood Warnings for details.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY

Below freezing temperatures will be possible from Friday night,
Saturday night and Sunday night. This may impact sensitive
vegetation if not protected or covered.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation may be needed this afternoon.

12

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
352 PM CDT THU APR 20 2023

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0345 PM     HAIL             GENESEO                 41.45N 90.15W
04/20/2023  M1.00 INCH       HENRY              IL   BROADCAST MEDIA

&&

DC

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
355 PM CDT THU APR 20 2023

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0320 PM     HAIL             ORION                   41.35N 90.37W
04/20/2023  E1.75 INCH       HENRY              IL   PUBLIC

            RELAYED VIA SOCIAL MEDIA.

&&

JTS

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
405 PM CDT THU APR 20 2023

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0402 PM     HAIL             2 SW GALVA              41.15N 90.06W
04/20/2023  M0.88 INCH       HENRY              IL   EMERGENCY MNGR

            NICKEL HAIL 1.5 MILES SOUTHWEST OF GALVA.

&&

HAASE

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
407 PM CDT THU APR 20 2023

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0405 PM     HAIL             2 SW GALVA              41.15N 90.06W
04/20/2023  M1.00 INCH       HENRY              IL   EMERGENCY MNGR

            QUARTER SIZE HAIL 1.5 MILES SOUTHWEST OF
            GALVA.

&&

HAASE

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
417 PM CDT THU APR 20 2023

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0416 PM     HAIL             1 S KEWANEE             41.23N 89.93W
04/20/2023  M1.00 INCH       HENRY              IL   EMERGENCY MNGR

&&

HAASE

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
418 PM CDT THU APR 20 2023

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0403 PM     HAIL             GALVA                   41.17N 90.04W
04/20/2023  E1.00 INCH       HENRY              IL   PUBLIC

            RELAYED VIA SOCIAL MEDIA. TIME ESTIMATED BY
            RADAR.

&&

JTS